Wondering on Wednesday (v197)

Ready... Set... Wonder!

It felt a little like Iowa here yesterday, trying to deal with technical difficulties off and on all day long - which delayed the anxiously-awaited wonderment beyond what would be acceptable. Rather than just tank the whole brain-muddle, here it is a day late. 

All of tonight's wondering is about the New Hampshire primary, the candidates, voters, and what comes next - in no particular order.  Let's dive in.

I wonder, I do, why some media outlets were calling That Guy From Vermont the clear front-runner, when (so far) he's tied for delegates and barely ahead in the popular vote? His margin of victory was around 3,900 votes - not what I'd call overwhelming for the guy who beat Hillary Clinton by more than ten times that last time out - and Iowa is practically a dead heat, pending some kind of recount. I don't feel anything is 'clear' at all, given what was expected in both of the earliest states.

Voter turnout is something that TGFV in particular is counting on, to demonstrate the strength of his 'grassroots movement.' And, it should be noted, Dems are hoping for a 2008-type showing across the country, which many people think will be needed if the Orange Menace is to be ousted.

So, let's wonder a bit about what happened on Tuesday. A new record was set, we learn from the NY Times, with nearly 300,000 people voting in the Democratic primary, almost 50K more than voted in 2016 when TGFV beat Hillary Clinton by about 57,000 votes, and a few thousand more than turned out in 2008 when Clinton beat Barack Obama by 8,000 votes.  Pretty exciting right?  

Except that the are 89,000 more registered voters now than there were in 2016, so that sort of dampens the turnout excitement a bit, I think. And even less exciting, if you're a TGFV fan, when you look at these numbers from Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, showing who got the bump from the increased turnout compared to 2016.   

Speaking about those moderates, Mayor Pete and Amy Klobuchar finished second and third - but between them garnered more votes than TGFV and Elizabeth Warren, the leading progressives in the race. 

Some people are wondering about the viability of the Warren and Biden campaigns, and there might be some reason behind that. Warren, the more pragmatic progressive, if you will, is likely more palatable to some people who are both resistant to having any kind of 'socialist' on the top of the ticket, and concerned about the potential that if he is the nominee, Dems will lost the house and lose ground in the Senate, instead of holding the former and taking back the latter. Absent majorities in both houses of Congress, there's little chance that any of extreme progressive proposals will see the light of day. 

Biden? I wonder why he's still in the race (and as I've said before, I don't think he should have gotten in in the first place), and I wonder why people still think he can beat Trump. I don't see it, at all. There are currently two active investigations into Papa Joe in Trump's Senate, both of which were opened back in November, which have requested all kinds of documents from both State and Treasury - and those document requests are being honored, by the way. No need to wonder why that is, right?

Donald Trump is wondering why no one's talking about his yuge win in New Hampshire, poor baby.  Let's all break out the teeny tiny violins, shall we? 

Mike Bloomberg is still out there, still poking Trump - and that last part's fine. I don't agree with the pundits who are trying to suggest that he will be the one around whom centrists and moderates are supposed to coalesce because we haven't yet made up our minds on Klobuchar or Mayor Pete. 

And, pundits and op-ed writers are also saying stuff like this.

Bernie Sanders is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. He won the New Hampshire primary last night, after virtually tying with Pete Buttigieg in Iowa last week. 

In some ways, Sanders looks like a strong front-runner. As Chris Hayes of MSNBC said last night, Sanders is winning races; he has raised a lot of money; and he has more of a multi-racial coalition that Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar, who finished second and third in New Hampshire.

In other ways, though, Sanders looks vulnerable, He only barely won New Hampshire - despite having crushed Hillary Clinton there four years ago and despite New Hampshire being next door to his home state of Vermont. Most Democratic voters remain wary of Sanders. 

So then, let's not declare this race over yet. OK with you?

Finally, and again not really any wondering going on here, Deval Patrick has left the race. Much more sadly, so has Andrew Yang. I'll miss him.

But there is wondering, at least IMO, as to why Tulsi Gabbard is still in the race. And whether she likes New Hampshire as much as she said the loved Hawaii. Important stuff, I know, but hey.

What's on your mind tonight?