Sunday School 2/23/20

I decided to spend all my classroom time with the crew at ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. Not because they had any of the 2020 Dems, but because they had an interesting panel and lots to talk about.

Here's who sat in today: Chris Christie, the Republican former governor of New Jersey; Rahm Emanuel, the Democratic former Mayor of Chicago/former Obama Chief of Staff; Democrat Yvette Simpson, CEO of Democracy for America, the progressive political action committee based in Burlington, VT; and Republican strategist Sara Fagen, the former political affairs director in the George W. Bush administration.

On the question on whether  Bernie Sanders (That Guy from Vermont, or TGFV) is unstoppable, Emanuel said no, but the moderates need to "coalesce around one person" - otherwise it's going to be like the Rs in 2016: a divided field that leaves room for one person to get enough delegates. He also said that everyone else in the race now is still able to have a "thread of logic" on why they should not drop out.

Simpson said TGFV continues to struggle with older people, and she thinks a lot of them are still in Biden's camp, even though Mayor Pete is picking up ground there. And, she thinks, South Carolina will be interesting, as he's "closing in on" Biden there. She thinks he'll be the one with the most delegates come convention time, but "the biggest challenge is the establishment continuing to fight him" instead of coalescing around him as the front-runner.

Fagan pointed to a difference between '16 and now, that Trump "ultimately espoused tenets of the Republican Party." He was a Republican, she said, while TGFV "is not a Democrat."

He only runs as a Democrat because it's the path of least resistance to getting the nomination.

Simpson noted that "Bloomberg is a Republican" and Warren used to be one. But TGFV "has a record of voting with" the Dems, something like 95% of the time. And, "he's a democratic socialist, I think we have to continue to say that..." Emanuel cut her off in mid-sentence, saying "No, we don't have to continue to say that."

Simpson fought back, saying "it's the truth" and dropped names of other democratic socialists such as Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela. TGFV, she said, "believes in democracy, but believes that the economy should be looked at from a different perspective."

Chris Christie chimed in at that point, agreeing with moderate Dems who say Trump will glom onto the 'socialist' tag and push it into 'communist' territory pretty quickly. Trump's already saying it; "he's going to continue to say it. And by the way, it's true." He pointed to TGFV's "socialist agenda" as proof, and wondered it if was maybe too late for the moderates to stop attacking each other and start attacking him. 

Emanuel thinks the other candidates should attack him on his gun record, or debate moderators should, and that they certainly would have in a Republican race.

The "broader point," Fagen said, is the lack of vetting for TGFV. "Now, he's the front-runner, and it is coming to him. And we're starting to see the drip, drip of comments about communist leaders around the world and socialist leaders around the world..." We'll have to see how he stands up to having the spotlight on him, she said.

Emanuel reminded everyone that both presidents Clinton and Obama put together a "coalition for congressional majorities," but that TGFV "doesn't care about that metropolitan majority welcoming independent swing voters from the suburbs" into the party. He suggested the test of this is "not one of the congressional Democrats who flipped red to blue" in '18 have endorsed him.

Simpson doesn't think having him at the top of the ticket will cause the Dems to lose the House. She pointed to the "amazing historic election in 2018" stemming from hatred of Trump, sure, but "also by the fact that "the new American majority is representing us, and they want to run" for the House and Senate.

She also credits TGFV with building a "multiracial coalition, multigenerational coalition" which Dems need for the future of the party. And, she said, "And I've told - I think I've told Rahm this, we told the entire Democratic establishment, whoever the nominee is, if it's (TGFV), people need to get their folks to show up."

Emanuel pressed the issue, using Illinois as an example, where there are three suburban representatives in Congress, and said "ask them if, if that's the choice, they want to have a democratic socialist at the top of the ticket." And not only that, he said, but there's redistricting to be done, around the country, too -- which is also at risk.

Stephanopoulos noted that the Dems have proportional primaries, which might help TGFV get a plurality, but not the majority needed to secure the nomination before the convention. Fagen agreed, barring someone like Warren getting out of the race.  But, she said, there's no real reason to get out early, because "the more delegates you have, the bigger say you have in the nomination contest, and the more delegates you have, the more likely you are to be somebody in a Cabinet. She suggested she and Christie would "enjoy watching" this particular challenge.

Christie noted there are basically two perfect situations for the Rs: TGFV winning the nomination outright, or him not doing that.

If they ever throw this to Biden or someone else on the second ballot, this will be a destroyed Democratic Party, and the only thing better than running against a Sanders-dominated party for Republicans is to have somebody else there with a completely divided Democratic Party.

So, what can the Dems do to prepare for something like that? Emanuel said if he was chair of the DNC, he'd "get a big parliamentarian that understands all the rules for the convention, because you're going to need it." He said that Trump and Putin are "picking their opponent" and that's not who Dems want, again pointing to the down-ballot issue.

Fagen said "it's more complicated than that" because the first vote they'll take is a vote on the rules. "So, are they going to change the rules? Will there be enough TGFV delegates to change the rules? I mean, this could - this could not even get out of the gate."

After some discussion on South Carolina and Super Tuesday involving Biden, Bloomberg and TGFV, things got a little heated.  Here's Simpson.

But I want to - what I want to say, George, is listen to what you're hearing. This is someone who is getting votes from the base of the Democrat Party. Bernie Sanders is who I'm talking about. And the establishment is trying to figure out how to not give him the nomination. This is not what parties are supposed to do. If he gets the votes from your delegates, he should be the nominee. 

Stephanopoulos asked if that wasn't exactly what he did against Clinton in 2016.  Christie jumped in with agreement, saying

Yes, sure did. Sure did. That's exactly what he did. Hillary Clinton had the most votes and TGFV went in there, into the convention - and caused mayhem.... Had his people booing people at the convention. And he was a sore loser last time. Now he's saying to everybody, 'well, I'm ahead, so everybody come together behind me.' Guess what, if he had done that four years ago, there would be a lot more people willing to do it. No one's willing to do that now. 

Emanuel and Fagen chimed in often during Christie's history lesson, agree with what he was saying. Simpson disagreed, saying that was different, and

We're talking about not letting - we're talking about not letting superdelegates - we're talking about not letting superdelegates override the will of the people. Bernie Sanders - Bernie Sanders has the will of the people because he's getting those votes. We're becoming more Democratic and not less Democratic. 

Christie and Emanuel disagreed strongly, with the latter saying

You are right about one thing, and that is that he is amassing delegates and getting more delegates than anybody else. What we're saying, just that this is fraught with political risk that has never been tried since 1992. And that we have to be smart about it, open-minded.... And the fact is, you're going to need a parliamentarian, and a person that understands the rules backwards and forwards, and the strength to see it through because we're going to go, at this point -

And at that point, Simpson chimed in, saying what everyone else had been trying to tell her.

It's going to be a mess.

Oh yeah, it might very well be!

See you around campus.