January 20, 2019

Sunday School 1/20/19

Boy, it was a tough decision today on which lectures to attend.

On the one hand, my senator Kirsten Gillibrand was on three out of five shows, missing only NBC's Meet the Press and Fox News Sunday. On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani was on MTP and veep Mike Pence was on FNS. The one bonus is that Lindsey Graham wasn't on any of the shows, so that made them all a little more palatable.

In the end, although I try and stay away from MTP because of Chuck Todd, I caved today and went with the worst lawyer in the nation, even though it made me feel more than a little like an ambulance chaser myself.  Let's take a look at how the conversation went, starting with the BuzzFeed story that Trump told former attorney Michael Cohen to lie to Congress.
Chuck Todd: Are you 100% confident that the president never once asked Michael Cohen to do anything but tell the truth to Congress?
Rudy Giuliani: 100% certain of that. And also, I, you know, I should add the BuzzFeed story was a story that the president had counseled him or told him to lie and that there were tapes, and texts, and federal law enforcement sources, two of them, were cited for it.  And I spent a great deal of the day on Saturday with that because I knew from the very beginning that it wasn't true. But, I mean, to their credit, the Justice Department and the special counsel's office said that the story was inaccurate. And the inaccuracy is that there's no evidence that the president told him to lie..I can tell you his counsel to Michael Cohen throughout that entire period was, "Tell the truth."...

January 18, 2019

Poll Watch: It's All About That Base

Ruh roh.

Seems that in at least one recent poll, the president's base is cracking. A recent NPR/Marist poll shows degradation in Trump's support across all of his key demographics.

Among Republicans (-10), white men without college degrees (-7), white evangelicals (-13), suburban men (-18) ,and even white women without college degrees (-24), his support in the January poll is down compared to December. According to Lee Miringoff, the Marist Institute for Public Opinion's director,
For the first time, we saw a fairly consistent pattern of his base showing evidence of cracking. Don't know if that's temporary - tied to the government shutdown - or a broader problem the president is having. 
The numbers shown for each group reflect the net change in support between the two polls. So for example, in the December poll, white women without college degrees had a +20 favorable rating (54% approve of Trump's job performance vs. 34% disapprove) but in the January poll, the disapproves (47%) outnumber the approves (43%), for a net loss of 24 points.

Overall, the president's approval rating in this poll stands at 39%, compared to a disapprove rating of 53%, with the number reflecting strong disapproval at 45%.

What else did this poll tell us?  Let's take a look.