Wondering on Wednesday 11/3/21

Ready... Set... Wonder!

I'm wondering untraditionally this week. Instead of entertaining or antagonizing you with my own ramblings, I'm sharing the ramblings of the experts, who are looking in their rear-view mirrors at yesterday's elections.

Biden arrives back in Washington to a political nightmare

Returning to the White House in the dark, Biden declined to answer questions about the race, which he'd incorrectly predicted Democrats would win eight hours earlier. The results had been called a half-hour before Biden touched down at Joint Base Andrews. Aboard Air Force One, people familiar with the matter said the mood was grim as a weary team returned to what has become a swirl of recrimination and second-guessing…

But, Biden said, there's not much that could have been done given historical trends and enthusiasm among Republican voters.

"I think it should have passed before Election Day," Biden said of his legislative agenda, "but I'm not sure that I would have been able to change the number of very conservative folks who turned out in red districts who were (former President Donald) Trump voters. But, maybe. Maybe."

Are the Democrats doomed? 

Even if Democrats regain their footing and recover some lost ground, it is hard to be optimistic. Given the GOP's structural advantage in the U.S. Senate, Democrats would need to win by at least four points nationally just to retain their slim majority next year. And if democracy reforms like national non-partisan redistricting remain stalled in the Senate's legislative mausoleum, Republicans are likely to win the House unless Democrats have the best midterm for either party since George W. Bush's Republicans defied history in 2002. It's hard to see how that happens given what transpired Tuesday. 

Democrats: This is no time to panic 

So if I were a Democratic political strategist, I would recommend three things: One, pass the Biden agenda in the best possible form — hopefully with some of the economic capacity elements included to cut down on inflation — and as soon as possible. This would get some kind of accomplishment on the board and end the humiliating media coverage. (If the party flips out, passes nothing, and spends the next year hiding under the bed, defeat is guaranteed.) 

Two, pass voting rights protections to make Republican cheating harder.  

Finally, pray to every god in the book that the party gets lucky. Campaigns are important, and Democrats should do as much as they can. But the results in Virginia and New Jersey demonstrate no candidate can compensate for wretched conditions on the ground.

Reeling Democrats see threat to House and Senate control as Republicans crack their 2020 coalition

Democratic officials and strategists said that to counteract what unfolded in Virginia — strong anti-Democratic and anti-Biden energy driving the conservative base and suburban independents to vote Republican — the party needs to significantly improve its economic pitch, engage with young voters, voters of color and women under 50 far earlier and more aggressively than they have this year and renew efforts to recruit a more diverse slate of candidates. 

Republicans broke through in Virginia, but not for the usual reasons.

Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate for governor, won by making broad gains over Democrats in every part of the state and, apparently, across every demographic group. He gained in the cities, the suburbs and rural areas. He gained in the east and west. He made inroads in precincts with both white and nonwhite voters...

The broad shift to the right could indicate widespread revulsion against Democrats, or it could simply be a sign that longstanding trends have finally run their course. Or perhaps it’s because Mr. Youngkin adopted a message that appealed to the kinds of voters who have gradually been fleeing the Republican Party.

An electoral thumping boosts Democrats' urgency to pass Biden's agenda

"We can never run on just anti-Trump," Jayapal said. "We have to run on the things we do." Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said the election result should "put a sense of urgency and a fire under" the goal of passing Biden's agenda. "If you look at how upset Americans broadly are about what they see as a dysfunction in Washington, and if you're a rational Democrat, you have to understand we've got to do something, we got to start delivering for the people," he said. 

Democrats misjudge anti-Trump vote in suburban setbacks: The Note 

It means that President Joe Biden is back on American soil Wednesday trying to pick up the pieces of a stalled agenda in addition to a freshly battered party. Biden himself has experience in running against -- and defeating -- Trump. But in Virginia, Biden turned out to be about as unpopular as Trump among voters overall. (There were no exit polls in New Jersey)...

Trump is already claiming full credit, but Youngkin won by keeping some distance between himself and the former president; Democrats were more eager than Republicans to talk about Trump in this year's key races...

For months, Democrats have heard from strategists, analysts and even members of Congress worried that their party has drifted from relevance to people's lives. A similar message has now been delivered from many of the same suburbs that gave them majorities and the presidency. 

What do you think? Are the Dems doomed? Do they have a clue about what voters want? Do they even know why people who voted for them last year did so? Does the rest of the country actually care what happened in Virginia? 

Chime in, if you're so inclined. I'll be sharing my thoughts on this tomorrow.