Wondering on Wednesday 11/3/21

Ready... Set... Wonder!

I'm wondering untraditionally this week. Instead of entertaining or antagonizing you with my own ramblings, I'm sharing the ramblings of the experts, who are looking in their rear-view mirrors at yesterday's elections.

Biden arrives back in Washington to a political nightmare

Returning to the White House in the dark, Biden declined to answer questions about the race, which he'd incorrectly predicted Democrats would win eight hours earlier. The results had been called a half-hour before Biden touched down at Joint Base Andrews. Aboard Air Force One, people familiar with the matter said the mood was grim as a weary team returned to what has become a swirl of recrimination and second-guessing…

But, Biden said, there's not much that could have been done given historical trends and enthusiasm among Republican voters.

"I think it should have passed before Election Day," Biden said of his legislative agenda, "but I'm not sure that I would have been able to change the number of very conservative folks who turned out in red districts who were (former President Donald) Trump voters. But, maybe. Maybe."

Are the Democrats doomed? 

Even if Democrats regain their footing and recover some lost ground, it is hard to be optimistic. Given the GOP's structural advantage in the U.S. Senate, Democrats would need to win by at least four points nationally just to retain their slim majority next year. And if democracy reforms like national non-partisan redistricting remain stalled in the Senate's legislative mausoleum, Republicans are likely to win the House unless Democrats have the best midterm for either party since George W. Bush's Republicans defied history in 2002. It's hard to see how that happens given what transpired Tuesday. 

Democrats: This is no time to panic 

So if I were a Democratic political strategist, I would recommend three things: One, pass the Biden agenda in the best possible form — hopefully with some of the economic capacity elements included to cut down on inflation — and as soon as possible. This would get some kind of accomplishment on the board and end the humiliating media coverage. (If the party flips out, passes nothing, and spends the next year hiding under the bed, defeat is guaranteed.) 

Two, pass voting rights protections to make Republican cheating harder.  

Finally, pray to every god in the book that the party gets lucky. Campaigns are important, and Democrats should do as much as they can. But the results in Virginia and New Jersey demonstrate no candidate can compensate for wretched conditions on the ground.

Reeling Democrats see threat to House and Senate control as Republicans crack their 2020 coalition

Democratic officials and strategists said that to counteract what unfolded in Virginia — strong anti-Democratic and anti-Biden energy driving the conservative base and suburban independents to vote Republican — the party needs to significantly improve its economic pitch, engage with young voters, voters of color and women under 50 far earlier and more aggressively than they have this year and renew efforts to recruit a more diverse slate of candidates. 

Republicans broke through in Virginia, but not for the usual reasons.

Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate for governor, won by making broad gains over Democrats in every part of the state and, apparently, across every demographic group. He gained in the cities, the suburbs and rural areas. He gained in the east and west. He made inroads in precincts with both white and nonwhite voters...

The broad shift to the right could indicate widespread revulsion against Democrats, or it could simply be a sign that longstanding trends have finally run their course. Or perhaps it’s because Mr. Youngkin adopted a message that appealed to the kinds of voters who have gradually been fleeing the Republican Party.

An electoral thumping boosts Democrats' urgency to pass Biden's agenda

"We can never run on just anti-Trump," Jayapal said. "We have to run on the things we do." Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said the election result should "put a sense of urgency and a fire under" the goal of passing Biden's agenda. "If you look at how upset Americans broadly are about what they see as a dysfunction in Washington, and if you're a rational Democrat, you have to understand we've got to do something, we got to start delivering for the people," he said. 

Democrats misjudge anti-Trump vote in suburban setbacks: The Note 

It means that President Joe Biden is back on American soil Wednesday trying to pick up the pieces of a stalled agenda in addition to a freshly battered party. Biden himself has experience in running against -- and defeating -- Trump. But in Virginia, Biden turned out to be about as unpopular as Trump among voters overall. (There were no exit polls in New Jersey)...

Trump is already claiming full credit, but Youngkin won by keeping some distance between himself and the former president; Democrats were more eager than Republicans to talk about Trump in this year's key races...

For months, Democrats have heard from strategists, analysts and even members of Congress worried that their party has drifted from relevance to people's lives. A similar message has now been delivered from many of the same suburbs that gave them majorities and the presidency. 

What do you think? Are the Dems doomed? Do they have a clue about what voters want? Do they even know why people who voted for them last year did so? Does the rest of the country actually care what happened in Virginia? 

Chime in, if you're so inclined. I'll be sharing my thoughts on this tomorrow.

The Election Eve Post, 2021 Edition

It's that time again - the night before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. That means it's Election Eve, and time for me to do my absolute best to encourage you to vote.

Odd-year elections aren't usually as exciting as even-year ones, are they? Hardly any ads on local television, and we get a whole lot less political junk mail, right? Turnout is even lower than during the even years, when so many eligible voters don't bother to show up. 

And yet, there's still a lot going on. Some people are choosing governors - most notably Virginia, where it appears that Joe Biden is running against the Former Guy. Or maybe it's Critical Race Theory running against white parents - it's hard to tell, for sure. Most of what we know about that race is brought to us by a media horde desperate for relevance, without a care in the world about how their words influence elections. Or, maybe they've all bet on the race, who knows?

What shouldn't be as hard to figure out are the local races. Picking the people who will be making decisions that directly impact you are the races that are important. County supervisor races and mayoral races and town council races and school board races and the rest - even the race for dogcatcher, if there's such a thing anymore - matter. Those folks, who put their lives on hold, and in some cases these days put their lives in danger - deserve your attention, and your vote. You know what's important to you; find the candidate who also knows what's important to you, or who at least comes close. I hope you have the opportunity to vote for someone, rather than having to vote against someone else. 

If you're an early voter, and have already done your civic duty, thank you. If you're not going to be around and chose to vote by absentee ballot, thank you. And if you're planning on voting  the old-fashioned way - showing up at your polling place on Election Day - thank you. 

But if you didn't vote early, or by mail, and you're not a reliable in-person voter, what's your plan? I hope you're not thinking of doing nothing.

Are you so frustrated with the state of things that you just don't care? I sure hope not! Believe me, I'm frustrated too, with all of the efforts being made to poison the process, make it harder for eligible people to vote, to cast doubt on the process of casting our ballots, and all the rest. 

And here in New York, we've got a handful of ballot initiatives, including some related to how we vote and how our districts are drawn. To me, putting them on the ballot during an off-year is completely wrong - why let the smallest number of voters make the decision? Of course, that's probably why they're on the ballot this year.

Yes - I'm frustrated. I get it if you are too. I'd be surprised if you weren't. But the antidote to that frustration is voting, it's not staying home. 

Use your voice. I don't care if you and I don't agree on a single thing - I still want everyone who is eligible to vote to do just that. The thing that's most frustrating to me is that the people who don't show up are often the ones making the decisions for the rest of us. We can't continue to allow that to happen. 

Tomorrow, Election Day, I'll go do my civic duty. I'll make my Dad, the history teacher, proud. I voted with him as a child, and I've never missed an election. He's been gone since 2007, but I know he knows I'm still doing the right thing. 

As I do every year, I offer the following motivation, in case you're still on the fence. 

After some thought, “I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians." (1) Actually, “The idea of an election is much more interesting to me than the election itself…the act of voting is in itself the defining moment.”(2) And why is it that “When the political columnists say ‘every thinking man’ they mean themselves, and when candidates appeal to ‘every intelligent voter’ they mean everyone who is going to vote for them”?(3) 

We know it’s true that “Bad officials are elected by good citizens who didn’t vote”(4), and that “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won’t cross the street to vote in a national election.”(5) Do we still not realize, after all these years, that “lower voter participation is a silent threat to our democracy… it under-represents young people, the poor, the disabled, those with little education, minorities and you and me”? (6) 

After all, “the vote is the most powerful instrument ever devised for breaking down injustice and destroying the terrible walls which imprison men because they are different from other men” (7) and “to make democracy work, we must be a nation of participants, not just observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.” (8) 

And complain we do, after every election, when the wrong guy wins. If only people who actually voted complained, it’d likely be a lot less noisy, don't you think? 

Some folks may not vote because they don’t know how to pick the right person. There are a couple different schools of thought on that. On the one hand, some might think that “politics is the art of the possible” (9) while others may subscribe to the thinking that “politics is not the art of the possible, it consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable. And it is true that, the great thing about democracy is that it gives every voter the chance to do something stupid.” (10) 

Said another way, a “Vote (is) the instrument and symbol of a freeman’s power to make a fool of himself and a wreck of his country.” (11) But that’s OK – “personally, I believe that our American system works as long as you participate in it. You must vote and make your voice heard; otherwise you will be left out.” (12) 

It’s generally true that if you “ask a man which way he’s going to vote and he’ll probably tell you. Ask him, however, why – and vagueness is all.” (13) But voting’s really easy; and “all voting is a sort of gaming, like checkers or backgammon, with a slight moral tinge to it, a playing with right and wrong.” (14) And just about everyone likes to play a game every now and then, right? 

The bottom line is, “voting is simply a way of determining which side is the stronger without putting it to the test of fighting;”(15) “voting is a civic sacrament;”(16) and “the future of this republic is in the hands of the American voter.”(17) If all of that seems like too much pressure, you have an out: “Vote for the man who promises least. He’ll be the least disappointing.” (18) 

Please, vote. It really does matter, this year and every year. Honestly, "there is no such thing as a vote that doesn't matter."(19) Besides, "not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender." (20)  

My final pitch?  "Talk is cheap, voting is free; take it to the polls." (21)

If you need information on where to vote, help on 

your ballot, or any other assistance, visit Vote411.org 

or contact your local Board of Elections. 

Lots of people are out there, ready and willing to help. 

(Thanks to these folks for their words of wisdom: 1 - Charles De Gaulle; 2 – Jeff Melvoin; 3 – Franklin P Adams; 4 and 13 – Andrew Lack; 5 - Bill Vaughan; 6 - Nancy Neuman; 7 - Lyndon B Johnson; 8 - Louis L’Amour; 9 – Otto Von Bismarck; 10 – Art Spander; 11 – Ambrose Bierce; 12 - Mari-Luci Jaramillo; 14 – Henry David Thoreau; 15 – H.L. Mencken; 16—Theodore Hesburgh; 17 – Dwight D. Eisenhower; 18 – Bernard Baruch); 19 - Barack Obama; 20 - Keith Ellison; 21 - Nanette L. Avery