You know, I was kind of bummed today when I saw that Miles Taylor, the former Chief of Staff to Kirstjen Nielsen at the Department of Homeland Security, announced himself the name and face behind 'Anonymous,' the author of the famed 2018 NY Times op-ed that began
President Trump is facing a test to his presidency unlike any faced by a modern American leader.
It’s not just that the special counsel looms large. Or that the country is bitterly divided over Mr. Trump’s leadership. Or even that his party might well lose the House to an opposition hellbent on his downfall.
The dilemma — which he does not fully grasp — is that many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.
I would know. I am one of them.
Like many others, I had wondered, not with any focus but sort of randomly, who in the administration might be the author (I had a favorite, I did.) And in 2019, when the book A Warning was published, I wondered again if perhaps it was my pick, Kellyanne Conway. I thought she was the perfect person to have realized the error of her ways, going from getting him elected to now warning us that we shouldn't allow him back in the Oval after January 20, 2021. But no, it's Miles Taylor.
Now that I don't have to wonder about that any more, I've got time to wonder about a bunch of other stuff.
For example, what kind of person do you need to be to get a major city's District Attorney this mad? Well, you just need to be Donald Trump, that's all. Here's just a piece of what's in DA Larry Krasner's statement:
The Trump Administration’s efforts to suppress votes amid a global pandemic fueled by their disregard for human life will not be tolerated in the birthplace of American democracy. Philadelphians from a diversity of political opinions believe strongly in the rule of law, in fair and free elections, and in a democratic system of government. We will not be cowed or ruled by a lawless, power-hungry despot. Some folks learned that the hard way in the 1700s.
Justice Amy Coney Barrett took another oath today at the Supreme Court; in an unusual celebratory note, she received her first recusal request, too. The election-related case is from Pennsylvania, a key battleground state that, according to the punditry, is a must win for both candidates if they want to get to 270 electoral college votes. We know, of course, that the new Justice would not commit t recuing herself, and I don't think I have to wonder much what her answer will be - I suspect it's going to be a no, in her best firm mommy voice, but we'll see.
Finally, I turn my wondering eye to these two articles, which arrived together in an email:
Republicans are on the verge of a spectacular upside-down achievement
It's hard paying attention to the wildly varying headlines and opinions. These two were similar to others I've seen recently, in which it's pretty clear that the president is going to win, and it's equally clear that the president's not going to win. It's also clear that the pandemic is the most important thing in the election, and equally clear that the economy is the most important thing in the election. It's clearly clear that no one really knows what's clear, and equally clear that everyone knows what's clear.
And all of that had me wondering what the oddsmakers say about the election. According to an article in the Las Vegas Review Journal,
The U.S. presidential election has officially become the most heavily bet event in the history of the United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange, the company said in a release. A total of about $259 million in bets have been placed on the matchup between President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate. The handle breaks the record $258 million bet on the 2016 presidential election between Trump and Hillary Clinton. Betfair predicts that as much as $519 million could be bet on the election by Tuesday.
So, lots of money in play, but what are the odds? Biden is a -200 favorite to win the election at Betfair (Trump +200); that means that Biden is the favorite and Trump the underdog.
A US oddsmaker (for entertainment purposes only, since it's illegal to bet on elections in the US) has Biden at -240 and Trump +220. And, the same guy has Kamala Harris at +800 to replace Biden before the 2024 election.
If it weren't illegal, I wonder how much Trump would put on that? After all, he's already suggesting Biden's only going to last three weeks if he wins...
What are you wondering about?
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