TGIF 1/3/25

Here's my attempt at a good week/bad week list, the first of the new year. As was often the case with this theme, it seems a week can meander around a bit. 

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-Trump), was re-elected House Speaker on a long-held-open first vote. A few Freedom Caucus folks skipped their votes the first time through the roll call, and three voted for others, but in the end, Johnson prevailed without having to undergo a second vote. 

It may take a while before we know what concessions were made to secure the votes, or if it was simply the unqualified support (and pressure?) of the Once and Future President (OAFP) who offered Johnson his full endorsement ahead of today's vote. 

It might also take a while before we fully understand how this vote impacts the Artful DOGEr, Elon Musk, who both echoed and questioned Trump's endorsement of Johnson, within less than an hour. Will the OAFP stand by his First Buddy, or will he start to pull back?

It feels like Border Czar Tom Homan struck out with his comments after the terrorist attack in New Orleans, which was committed by an American-born, GI Bill-educated Army veteran, who ended his service as a Staff Sergeant in the Reserves a few years ago, and the exploding Cybertruck outside a Trump property in Las Vegas, committed by an active-duty, highly decorated Green Beret. Homan, like others in the MAGA Camp, has pointed to the current administration's border policies as contributors. 

We're not out of the woods. This country is in grave danger. We need to secure that border, and despite what's happened in the last two days in Las Vegas and in New Orleans, this administration is not stopping. They're still releasing thousands of people every week... without proper vetting.

He also talked about the need to ramp up 'insider threat analysis', saying the Biden administration had put that "on the back burner," and warning

We've got two people who served in the military that (allegedly) committed these terrorist acts. We really need to dig down into insider threats in our military and our federal service. 

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news for the incoming administration, but I would be remiss if I didn't remind them that Pete Hegseth, the OAFP's pick to run the Defense Department, was once identified as a potential  "insider threat" because of his apparent affinity for white supremacist groups.

Hegseth, who has downplayed the role of military members and veterans in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack and railed against the Pentagon’s subsequent efforts to address extremism in the ranks, has said he was pulled by his District of Columbia National Guard unit from guarding Joe Biden’s January 2021 inauguration. He’s said he was unfairly identified as an extremist due to a cross tattoo on his chest.

It wasn't that tattoo that got him in trouble - it was another one, reported by a fellow Guard member.  

Sticking with New Orleans for a moment, media reports  say that the New Orleans terrorist left coolers containing IEDs on Bourbon Street, and that "security cameras showed multiple people stopping and looking at the coolers before walking away." I have to say that we all, collectively, deserve a bad week mention for that. 

Have we forgotten all the reporting on the importance of speaking up, of "if you see something, say something?" All the signage at airports and other transportation hubs about reporting unattended bags? Have we forgotten the Boston Marathon bombing? What to do when we see a suspicious package? 

It's a miracle the terrorist didn't have time to detonate the devices - the carnage, the death toll, the societal toll could have been so much worse if that had happened. We have to do better, for ourselves and others.

TGIF, everyone.

In Case You Missed It (v111)

There's something about vacations, and being away, and not reading the news every day, isn't there?

We were gone last week, riding planes, trains, Ubers, buses, shuttle vans, and even a Hummer, traveling from Syracuse to Las Vegas to Arizona to Utah to Colorado and back home. The week started and ended with 3AM wake-up calls; they were the good kind of   and they were good ones, getting us up and ready for the next phase of our trip. 

That kind of wakeup is nothing like those that hit my phone, with (ahem) "breaking news" about the weather in a state I've never even visited, or about some politician here or elsewhere pretending to have a new idea, or spewing an old one, or attacking their opponent, or a president proclaiming a success and the media trying to prove their chops by attaching a "... things are still horrible..." comment at the beginning or end of every paragraph, or a former president shrieking on social media in flaming caps and enough exclamation points to poke holes in the atmosphere.

I didn't miss the latter, and I'm glad today didn't include the former. It was nice to sleep in with our cats, who missed us as much as we missed them, after a week of about 1% news and 99% exploring the American southwest: the Grand Canyon; the fake canyons created by Las Vegas hotels; the desert between Vegas and Moab by plane, and outside Moab, where our unforgettable Hummer ride happened; Arches National Park, and a climb from the desert to the mountains, across the Continental Divide, and down into Denver by train.

It was on that last leg of the trip that I saw a political sign unrelated to a local race; those were everywhere, and there were seemingly hundreds of ads on television too, when we were trying catch up on baseball scores and get the next day's weather forecast; that part felt just like home. The national sign was about President Biden; it was near the entrance to the driveway of a house in the middle of the Colorado nowhere. It had a bunch of issues on it, and boxes where I guess you'd check whether he was doing well or failing; I couldn't see the whole sign,  but I'd guess it was a 'red' sign not a 'blue' one.

I was honestly surprised by the lack of Trump/MAGA signs; I see more around here in Central New York. Maybe it's because everyone knows where folks stand out there, or because no one wants anyone to know where they stand (the 'shy Trump voters' we hear about)? I'm not sure why, but it was interesting, and not the least unpleasant.

I hope you all had a great week.  It would be fun to see what everyone thought was the most important thing, the most interesting thing, the funniest thing, or just something I missed. If you're up for sharing, drop a note in the comments.

I'll be back later with your Sunday School - most likely 'tomorrow' later.  Talk to you then.

Wondering on Wednesday 10/28/20

Ready... Set... Wonder!

You know, I was kind of bummed today when I saw that Miles Taylor, the former Chief of Staff to Kirstjen Nielsen at the Department of Homeland Security, announced himself the name and face behind 'Anonymous,' the author of the famed 2018 NY Times op-ed that began 

President Trump  is facing a test to his presidency unlike any faced by a modern American leader.

It’s not just that the special counsel looms large. Or that the country is bitterly divided over Mr. Trump’s leadership. Or even that his party might well lose the House to an opposition hellbent on his downfall.

The dilemma — which he does not fully grasp — is that many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.

I would know. I am one of them.

Like many others, I had wondered, not with any focus but sort of randomly, who in the administration might be the author (I had a favorite, I did.) And in 2019, when the book A Warning was published, I wondered again if perhaps it was  my pick, Kellyanne Conway. I thought she was the perfect person to have realized the error of her ways, going from getting him elected to now warning us that we shouldn't allow him back in the Oval after January 20, 2021. But no, it's Miles Taylor.

Now that I don't have to wonder about that any more, I've got time to wonder about a bunch of other stuff.

For example, what kind of person do you need to be to get a major city's District Attorney this mad? Well, you just need to be Donald Trump, that's all. Here's just a piece of what's in DA Larry Krasner's statement:

The Trump Administration’s efforts to suppress votes amid a global pandemic fueled by their disregard for human life will not be tolerated in the birthplace of American democracy. Philadelphians from a diversity of political opinions believe strongly in the rule of law, in fair and free elections, and in a democratic system of government. We will not be cowed or ruled by a lawless, power-hungry despot. Some folks learned that the hard way in the 1700s.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett took another oath today at the Supreme Court; in an unusual celebratory note, she received her first recusal request, too. The election-related case is from Pennsylvania, a key battleground state that, according to the punditry, is a must win for both candidates if they want to get to 270 electoral college votes.  We know, of course, that the new Justice would not commit t recuing herself, and I don't think I have to wonder much what her answer will be - I suspect it's going to be a no, in her best firm mommy voice, but we'll see. 

Finally, I turn my wondering eye to these two articles, which arrived together in an email:

Republicans are on the verge of a spectacular upside-down achievement

Why Trump's re-election still seems likely 

It's hard paying attention to the wildly varying headlines and opinions. These two were similar to others I've seen recently, in which it's pretty clear that the president is going to win, and it's equally clear that the president's not going to win. It's also clear that the pandemic is the most important thing in the election, and equally clear that the economy is the most important thing in the election. It's clearly clear that no one really knows what's clear, and equally clear that everyone knows what's clear.

And all of that had me wondering what the oddsmakers say about the election. According to an article in the Las Vegas Review Journal, 

The U.S. presidential election has officially become the most heavily bet event in the history of the United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange, the company said in a release. A total of about $259 million in bets have been placed on the matchup between President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate. The handle breaks the record $258 million bet on the 2016 presidential election between Trump and Hillary Clinton. Betfair predicts that as much as $519 million could be bet on the election by Tuesday.

So, lots of money in play, but what are the odds? Biden is a -200 favorite to win the election at Betfair (Trump +200); that means that Biden is the favorite and Trump the underdog. 

A US oddsmaker (for entertainment purposes only, since it's illegal to bet on elections in the US) has Biden at -240 and Trump +220. And, the same guy has Kamala Harris at +800 to replace Biden before the 2024 election.

If it weren't illegal, I wonder how much Trump would put on that? After all, he's already suggesting Biden's only going to last three weeks if he wins... 

What are you wondering about?

Quick Takes (v30): Guns and Money

Quick Takes

Most of us are familiar with the old adage "all roads lead to Rome." We intuitively know that every single road doesn't lead to Rome, but that there are many ways to get there, some of which require more effort and stick-to-it-iveness than others. 

For the purposes of today's post, let's recognize (and celebrate, in my case) that there's more than one way to 'get thee' and do something about guns in America. Here's a headline that appeared in the business section of my local paper:

Investors push gun industry for reforms

The article, from Bloomberg, talked about a group of 13 investors, including state pension funds in California, Florida and Connecticut, among others, that collectively have trillions of assets under management, and who are

banding together for the first time to pressure gun manufacturers and sellers to make firearms "safer, more secure and easier to trace."

The approach is not to threaten to divest from the manufacturers; instead, it's to apply pressure on manufacturers to encourage them to make changes that comply with five Principles for a Responsible Civilian Firearms Industry which focus on new technology; dealer standards; training and education programs; best practices in background checks, inventory management, and point of sale policies; proactive assistance to law enforcement; and collaboration with the signers of the Principles moving forward.

Christopher Ailman, who's the Chief Investment Officer for the California State Teachers' Retirement System (CalSTRS), said that

As investors, we're focused on taking steps to reduce risks while increasing the long-term value of the companies in which we invest. But as individuals, we are also deeply saddened by the gun-related tragedies our country is experiencing. We hope these principles serve as the start of a new conversation to address gun safety in the civilian firearms industry, and we look forward to progress through the reasonable and broad framework for engagement they provide. 

Ailman also noted that CalSTRS has tried this before. According to this NY Times article from December 2012, after the Sandy Hook shooting, the fund had about $750M invested in Cerberus Capital Management, which in turn was invested in the Freedom Group, which manufactured the Bushmaster rifle used in Sandy Hook. Here's what CalSTRS had to say:

At this point our investment branch is examining the Cerberus investment to determine how best to move forward given the tragic events of last Friday in Newtown, Conn.

Back then, there was little expectation that things would change. The problem? Firms like Cerberus and others are obligated to maximize their investors' funds, even if that means holding positions in 'sin' companies such as guns, gambling and tobacco.

Similarly, it might be a while before any impact from these Principles and these investors is seen. After all, there's long been concern from manufacturers that things could change - and yet... Here's just one example, excerpted from a note to investors about a (shelved) IPO that predates Sandy Hook:

The regulation of firearms and ammunition may become more restrictive in the future and any such development might have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. In addition, regulatory proposals, even if never enacted, may affect firearms or ammunition sales as a result of consumer perceptions. 

Two manufacturers -  American Outdoor and Sturm, Ruger - both recently had shareholder proposals approved, asking for reports on gun violence and the risks of selling guns. And while the reports didn't spur any changes in product offerings, I think it's safe to say that Americans will continue trying to find ways to deal with our mass shooting problem, whether we call it a gun problem, a mental health problem, a domestic terrorism problem, or something else entirely. A rose by any other name, and all.

Whether it's investment, divestment, or other shareholder actions; changes to the background check process; voluntary changes by manufacturers, perhaps to include limiting sales of ammunition or or eliminating the sale of bump stocks; increased opportunity for mental health treatment; ER research on gunshot victims; or what have you, sooner or later, I think we'll reach some kind of critical mass where common ground can be found.

Poll Watch: It's Time

It's hard to believe I haven't officially delved into any polling since July. What was I thinking? 

Tonight, let's look at the most recent Quinnipiac poll, the results of which were released late last week; the polling was done between October 5 and October 10, and used both land lines and cell phones.  

So, what did they uncover about guns and Las Vegas, Trump and the media, and North Korea? Let's take dive in. 

Las Vegas and Gun Control

50% of respondents approve of president Trump's response to the Las Vegas massacre; 34% disapprove and 16% are unsure. By age, the 18 - 34 year olds were the most disapproving - 48%, while by race, blacks (54%) and Hispanics (45%) were more likely than whites (29%) to disapprove. 

Americans continue to support additional gun control (60% to 30%), by the highest margin the poll's ever reported. Specifically:

• 79% support mandatory waiting periods on all purchases;
• 73% support a ban on anything that will make a semi-automatic act like an automatic;
• 64% support a ban on assault weapons;
• 86% support a ban on sales to those convicted of a violent crime;
• 58% want stricter rules on ammunition sales;
• 64% support banning magazines holding more than 10 rounds;
• 94% support background checks for all purchases

And,

• 63% think we can have more gun laws without infringing on the rights of gun owners - even gun owning households agree, (57%)
• by a margin of 4% (47% to 43%), respondents think the NRA supports policies that are bad for America.

It remains to be seen whether Congress will act in accordance with the wishes of the people, or if the gun lobby will continue to hold elected officials in their grip.

Trump and the Media

Every demographic - political party, gender, education level, age, and race - disapprove of how the media covers the president, except one: Democrats. Shame on them. In general, across all demographics, 60% of people disapprove. 

On the flip side, looking at how Trump talks about the media, the results are similar, but Trump garners support from three demographics: Republicans (77%) non-college educated (52%) and men (51%) think the president is doing just fine with his incessant and often unwarranted bashing of the media. (I say often unwarranted because there are times when I agree with his criticism - when he's legitimately criticizing vs. just whining about things with which he disagrees).

All the 'who's nicer to whom' stuff aside, when it comes to trust, the media continues to maintain a slight edge there, but only slight. 52% think the media is more trustworthy, which is quite an indictment of the press, I'd say. Or, perhaps more reasonable, people fall for Trump's #fakenews claims hook, line and sinker. 

North Korea 

The percentage of people thinking we can reach a diplomatic solution with North Korea, which dropped from 64% on August 24th to 50% on September 28th has crept up to 54%, and by a margin of  52% to 41%, respondents think it's more important to avoid war with North Korea than it is to take their nukes. 

All demographics think it's worthwhile to negotiate with them, and by fairly wide margins, all but Republicans oppose a preemptive strike. The Rs favor that option, 46% to 41%. Even I don't believe that one.

One more thing

There is little hope that Congress and president Trump will accomplish anything major by the end of the year; only Republicans - 52% to 40% - think that any significant legislation will be passed. 

Tick tock.

Wondering on Wednesday (v106)

Reuters photo

OK, I'm wondering if maybe that whole thing about president Trump being a real estate developer was #fakenews?

I mean, are we sure he wasn't one of those people who randomly launched tee shirts into concert crowds?

I was pretty sure that the remarks at the Celebrate Me rally he held for the press was bad enough (you can read some of those comments in Tuesday's OrangeVerse post -- but I had to cut out a ton of it to stay sane; his full comments are here). But then, he tossed a Bounty of Viva to Hurricane Maria survivors??

Somehow, I'm thinking the people of Puerto Rico are not impressed with his remarks, or with the hurling of paper products any more than San Juan's mayor, Carmen Yulin Cruz, was:

This terrible and abominable view of him throwing paper towels and throwing provisions at people, it really - it does not embody the spirit of the American nation, you know?

But the Social Media president? He was not wondering at all, about his visit, tweeting

A great day in Puerto Rico yesterday. While some of the news coverage is Fake, most showed great warmth and friendship.

Does this mean that most of the media showed great warmth and friendship? Most of the Puerto Ricans? Most of the people who caught the paper towels? Most of the people who were paid to show up and say nice things about Trump?  I wonder, I really do.

Separately, we continue to get round the clock updates from various news outlets about the terrorist attack in Las Vegas.  And, of course, we know it's "too soon" to talk about having conversations about maybe doing something about why so many people die or are injured from some kind of shooting each year in the US.

We may talk soonly or laterly about making guns easier to silence to protect the ears of the people who use them, but maybe we won't even get to that until after we get a massive tax cut for the rich and corporations. And by rich and corporations, I mean the middle class.

Speaking of protecting people's ears, I wonder how it was that swimmers figured out they could use earplugs to keep the water out of their ears? And how was it that someone designed earplugs for shooting?

And speaking of  massive tax cuts for the middle class, I don't know about you, but as sure as I'm sitting here, I'm really looking forward to filing my taxes on a postcard.

I'm not even remotely wondering about the lack of security there -- I'm just happy that the government is looking to shore up the Post Office after all this time.