Strassmann was in Atlanta, talking about the surge in new cases, which he reported have spiked 248% since the start of September; that 31 states are in the red zone for new cases, 11 had single-day records, and Wisconsin- a battleground state - is "in crisis" with seven of the top ten metro areas for new cases. Fun stuff, right, especially now that we've "turned the corner," as a certain someone likes to say.
Voting is underway in all 50 states, and Strassmann said that nearly 3,000,000 Georgians had already voted, "more than double the record set four years ago." He talked about one group, Black Voters Matter, that plans on passing out a quarter million flyers with a QR code listing polling places, as well as wait times in real time, which is really cool. He also mentioned folks who have said the pandemic is a key reason they're voting, and he referenced another display, white flags in DC, place to honor the American lost due to COVID.
His final note? Mike 'My staff all has Covid" Pence will be campaigning in Georgia, because it's now a very tight race there - tied, in fact, in the network's latest poll.
And that's the segue to the Salvanto interview. He echoed what Strassman was hearing from voters, that the pandemic is definitely having an impact: the majority of Biden voters are 'very concerned' about it, while Trump voters are less so; personal character is another key factor for Biden voters. On the other side of things, Trump voters are more concerned about the economy and immigration. They also fear the country is becoming "too socialist," he said, while Biden voters think it's becoming "too authoritarian." One heck of a pickle we're in isn't it?
Brennan asked him about key groups he's watching. He mentioned women with college degrees, who've been trending D since the last mid-terms. Dive deeper to white women with college degrees, and they've been trending D for even longer, going back to 2016. Biden is up with this group compared to Hillary Clinton in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Another key group he mentioned? Seniors. Biden actually is leading with seniors in North Carolina; they're traditionally pretty reliable in the R column - that's where they are in Florida and Georgia.
With 57 million people already having voted, Brennan wondered, "is there a risk here of misreading these early indications?"
Well, it's a tale of two groups. First, you look at the early vote. And we estimate about half the vote in all of these states is already in. Among those voters, Joe Biden has a lead. These are voters who have told us that they voted for Joe Biden. And, also, if you look at the public voting roles, it seems like Democrats are turning out more than Republicans.
But if you look at voters who are still to vote, plan to vote between now and Election Day or on Election Day, that electorate tilts very heavily towards the President. When we get to November 3rd, it's going to be a case of perhaps the Democrats have a lead and then do the President's supporters turn out in large enough numbers to make up the difference. They have done that before. And I would caution anybody: if you read the early vote, or for that matter small polling leads, and think that this race is over, you will be mistaken. Margaret.
She also wondered whether the president needs these three states in order to win.
If you look at the map and then you put these states, hypothetically, back into the President's column. So I'll put Florida, I'll put Georgia, and I'll put North Carolina, all back to where they were in 2016, which could happen, then he's got to go up and win Ohio again, and I'll put Iowa, again, back in his column. That on the electoral vote count gets him much closer to Joe Biden, and then we are back to the Upper Midwest, and we're going to watch Pennsylvania, maybe Wisconsin, or a couple of those other states, to see if he can flip them from leaning Democratic as well. So, if that feels a little bit like 2016, or that old Yogi Berra line, "It's déjà vu all over again;" maybe it is. Margaret.
"Ain't over until it's over," she said. Ain't that the truth.
With all of the knot-tying and untying and twists and turns that the punditry is going through already, based on exit polling and based on what they're hearing in prospective polling, in focus groups, from the campaigns, and from their Ouija boards, and with more than a week to go, I fear for what's going to happen next week.
If we don't have a clear winner, or if we have a thousand million ballot challenges, which we may, the talking heads will be going nuts trying to predict the outcome. In a ratings-driven world, with an impetuous child-president, it's going to be an interesting ride. And yes, we will have a full Supreme Court to handle the thousand million challenges - Amy Coney Barrett has been sworn in, by Clarence Thomas.
See you around the virtual campus. Mask up, and remember to vote!
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