Sunday School 8/2/20

Here are your highlights from Sunday morning classrooms.

First up? Dana Bash and Dr. Deborah Birx on CNN's State of the Union, starting with whether we're in a new phase of the virus.

What we are seeing today is different from March and April. It is extraordinarily widespread. It's into the rural as equal (to) urban areas. And to everybody who lives in a rural area, you are not immune or protected from this virus. And that is why we keep saying, no matter where you live in America, you need to wear a mask and socially distance, do the personal hygiene pieces... This epidemic right now is different, and it's wide -- it's more widespread. 

On whether we need a federal government 'reset'; it's been suggested by folks at Johns Hopkins, who said "The United States is not currently on course to get control of the epidemic. It's time to reset." 

Well, I think the federal government reset about five to six weeks ago, when we saw this starting to happen across the South. And that is why we have done these very -- rather than generic federal framework, we have gone to very specific state and local, city by city, county by county, showing out which counties and which cities are under a particular threat and what mitigation has to be done.

On whether it's possible we could see 300,000 deaths by the end of the year, as has been suggested by former FDA head Scott Gottlieb:

-- you know, public health is called public health because it has a public component. And we need all of the public to help us get control of this virus. If we still are going to parties at home, even though the bars are closed, if we are creating interactions where we know it's not safe, because there's multiple people there, and you don't have masks on, and you're not socially distanced, you can assume...  It's not super-spreading individuals. It's super-spreading events. And we need to stop those. We definitely need to take more precautions.

I think I have to agree with many who've suggested that she's converted from scientist to apologist and cheerleader for the administration. Either that, or she's been learning howto not answer questions from Mike Pence.

Over in NBC's Meet the Press classroom, Chuck Todd and Adm. Brett Giroir, the testing guy for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, chatted about things, including whether we're "ever going to be able to get this testing strategy right":

...we've increased our testing by 32,000%. We're completing over 80% of our tests within three days, almost 90%t within five days. Of course, we're going to improve that. We're continuing to improve that. By September, we'll have over 23 million point-of-care tests, so we are improving that. But I do want to get the opportunity to put testing in context. And I think that's very important. How we use it, how we rely on it, and how we fix the outbreak right now by using testing selectively the way we're doing it in all the southern states.

On whether we're doing selective testing (based on defined risk or symptom criteria, rather than "if you want a test, you can get a test") because we don't have capacity, and if that's the case, why aren't we using the Defense Production Act (DPA):

We look every day for opportunities to use the DPA or other investments. And when it's possible to do that, we do that... The DPA is not a magic wand. It can't create something out of nothing. It can be used as an effective tool, and that's the way we're doing it. But testing is a part of the strategy. We don't test our way out of this. We do smart policies with testing as an adjunct... And you know what that is. Wear a mask, avoid crowded indoor places, use good hygiene, and avoid crowds. And if we do those things, that will reduce the overall outbreak to levels that will go down significantly. And that's what we're seeing across the South.

On whether the Task Force is recommending "partial shutdowns" in the red zone states:

 ...both for the red zone states and the emerging yellow states, we have really good data now... that if you do simple measures like avoid the indoor crowded places, and a lot of times that are indoor bars, but you can't have a hundred people at your house either. Do less indoor dining, because that's another place. Wearing a mask is incredibly important, but we have to have like 85% or 90% of individuals wearing a mask and avoiding crowds. That is essentially -- gives you the same outcome as a complete shutdown. 

And on whether hydroxychloroquine is a danger to public health:

... at first hydroxychloroquine looked very promising. There were not the definitive studies. At this point in time, there has been five randomized controlled, placebo-controlled trials that do not show any benefit to hydroxychloroquine. So, at this point in time, we don't recommend that as a treatment. There's no evidence to show that it is... Right now, hydroxychloroquine, I can't recommend that.

...hydroxychloroquine needs to be prescribed by a physician. There may be circumstances, I don't know what they are, where a physician may prescribe it for an individual. But I think most physicians and prescribers are evidence-based and they're not influenced by whatever is on Twitter or anything else. And the evidence just doesn't show that hydroxychloroquine is effective right now. I think we need to move on from that and talk about what is effective.

That would be hand-washing, mask-wearing, social distancing, and the like. And some better treatment protocols, too. But not hydroxychloroquine.

And our last drop in? That was the Face the Nation hall, where John Dickerson talked with Neel Kashkari, the head of the Minneapolis Fed, where the first question was what Kashkari saw inside the horrible Q2 GDP numbers:

The US personal savings rate has taken off. Before the crisis, it was around 8%. Now it's around 20%. Now, let me tell you what's going on. Those of us who are fortunate enough to still have our jobs, we're saving a lot more money because we're not going to restaurants or movie theaters or vacations. That actually means we have a lot more resources as a country to support those who've been laid off. And so while historically we would worry about racking up too much debt, we're generating this savings ourselves. That means Congress has the resources to support those who are most hurting.

On whether racking up debt will be something we have to deal with eventually: 

It's simply not an issue because we're not having to go abroad to fund these extra- the extra money for the CARES Act or whatever is to come. So that provides a lot of relief right now. And if you look over the long term, our inflation has been very low. Inflation continues to be low. Inflation expectations continue to drift lower. Right now, the US can fund itself at very, very low rates. Congress should use this opportunity to support the American people and the American economy. I'm not worried about it. We- if we get the economy growing, we will be able to pay off the debt.

On whether he's seen any evidence that supports the Republican argument that the $600 bonus unemployment is keeping people at home instead of working:

Well, not right now, not when 20 million people are out of work relative to February. There's just so many fewer jobs than there are workers available. At some point it'll be an issue. When we get the unemployment rate eventually back down to 5% and we want to get it back down to 4% or 3.5% where it was before, yes, that disincentive to work becomes material. But right now, it's simply not a factor in the macro economy that we have in the US because we have so many millions of Americans out of work.

On what role fear plays in Kashkari's assessment of our economic behavior, particularly given our consumer-driven economy:

Oh, fear's a huge factor. You can see this around the world. Some countries that didn't lock down officially based on public policy had a similar economic response because their own citizens were afraid and they said, no, I'm not taking that risk. I'm going to shelter at home. And so we all - many of your viewers, the American people, are paying close attention to what's happening to the virus. And you're seeing a similar economic behavior around the country, regardless of local public policy.

So fear is a huge driver, and that's why they need to have confidence that they will be safe, their families will be safe, their kids will be safe. And until we have that real confidence, not just wishful thinking, but in the data, real evidence that it's safe, we're not going to have a meaningful economic recovery.

Do you agree? At some point, do we just need to stop being afraid? And what data will it take for us to get there? Kids going back to school safely?  I'm not sure... 

Whether you're afraid or not, be sure you're doing your part, and remember what Admiral Giroir says:

Wear a mask, avoid crowded indoor places, use good hygiene, and avoid crowds. 

Stay safe; I'll see you around the virtual campus.