In Case You Missed It (v101)

Here's your recap of last week's posts. It seems some of the posts in my head didn't make it to the interwebs; hopefully I can work on that this week, so I can get some sleep.

I started the week Ranting and Raving about our glorified Wild West culture, where in Texas - where else? - a man who was robbed at an ATM shot several rounds, and several more, in the general direction of where the person who robbed may or not have been, he didn't really know. 

It was also in the direction of a family's vehicle, and the nine-year-old little girl inside who died as a result of what people are laughably calling self-defense. The shooter was not charged with a crime, but he "continues to grieve for" the little girl and, according to his attorney, "the grand jury made the right decision and that the person responsible for her death is the robber." 

The murderer, they said, 

did what we believe anyone in that situation would have done. We are relieved that, despite the emotion and tough decisions that had to be made in dealing with this case, justice was served for (the murderer).

I'm sorry, but there is zero justice being served here, 

• Unless you think that an idiot who's so dumb, he'd shoot at a random vehicle in the ATM line deserves justice. 
• Unless you think that an innocent nine-year-old little girl is acceptable collateral damage for a robbery. 
• Unless you think that a person who shoots at a stranger's vehicle in an ATM line is acting in self-defense, when he doesn't even know whether the person who robbed him is in that car, or any other car in the ATM line.

This stuff is just nuts.

Also nuts? Sunday School, although I think it's better now that I focus on a single classroom instead of wandering up and down the halls. Last week's featured classroom was Face the Nation, where Sen. Joe Manchin made an appearance and explained that he hadn't changed his mind on things - he had just opened his eyes, or something. 

 ...the corporate tax in America in 2017, before the Republican tax cut, was 35 percent. They cut it to 21 percent, 14 percent reduction. All the people that I know are paying 21 percent or more. All the even larger corporations, but some of the largest corporations of a billion dollars of value or more don't even want to pay the minimum of 15 percent.

He said he "never thought" people (I think he meant corporations) weren't paying at least 21%. Has he had his head in his state's coal dust for the last decade or more? I mean, I did a post on GE not paying any federal income taxes back in 2011, for heaven's sake. And West Virginia's almost heaven, so Manchin clearly should have known about this.

For your Extra Credit, I listened in as my favorite Fed banker, Neel Kashkari, talked economics with John Dickerson. On the question of whether implementing a minimum 15% corporate tax would hurt supplies and increase inflation, Kashkari said we need to focus on the short-term,  

the demand side effects totally swamp the supply side effects. And so, when I look at a bill that's being considered, that your two senators talked about, my guess is over the next couple of years it's not going to have much of an impact on inflation. It's not going to affect how I analyze inflation over the next few years. I think long-term it may have some effect. But, over the near term, we have an acute mismatch between demand and supply. And it's really up to the Federal Reserve to be able to bring that demand down. 

For some reason, whatever I was Wondering on Wednesday didn't make it out of my head. I'm blaming the heat, the humidity, no A/C, and the fact that I don't have a light on my screened porch which means I can't write out there at night.

On Thursday, I threw it back to Sunday School from two years ago that day; Mick Mulvaney, former Trump budget guy, former Trump acting chief of staff, former Trump "dude sent to Ireland to get him out of the way," former Trump supporter, talked with Chuck Todd on MTP about mass shootings; the show was on right after the El Paso and Dayton murders.  

Let's just say they were both, well, they were both their 'best' selves. Here's some of their exchange, talking about Trump and his "dehumanizing rhetoric. Todd asked, "Is he not the president of all Americans here? It does seem as if he's always more worried about how his base is going to react to something than how the American, you know, moral fabric is protected?

He absolutely is the president of all Americans, alright...Listen, we're going to have policy discussions, but my guess is, you show me how you feel about the president, and I'll show you who you think was responsible for the shooting. 

Todd did not drop it there, adding "well, unfortunately, it does appear this was a political motive of this domestic terrorist." And here was Mulvaney's final thought.

This was a political motive by a crazy person with a gun. How do we stop crazy people from getting guns? That's a - -if we can't agree on that, if we can't figure out a way to prevent that from happening, there's very little hope for this nation. Let's try and fix what allows sick people to get these types of weapons.

Here we are, two years later, with the same arguments and the same lack of 'real' action, and, to a large degree, the same "very little hope for this nation." Mulvaney's words, remember - not mine. 

Finally, I attempted the good week/bad week stuff in TGIF. There was lots going on, but much of the post dealt with the Senate and their efforts - partisan and bipartisan - to get things accomplished. There was the Inflation Reduction Act, and the PACT Act, and more.

Speaking of the PACT Act, here's an excerpt from a WaPo editorial congratulating those who fought for the bill's passage, and blasting the Rs delaying the bill "at the last minute...and used to score political points..."

The objections hinged on a technicality: Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.) had raised concerns about reclassifying existing toxic-exposure benefits from discretionary spending to mandatory. He argued that this move could free up space in the discretionary budget for legislators to spend on other programs.

Officials, including Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, warned that keeping those benefits in the discretionary budget could force the agency to “ration” care, and pointed out that the measure had bipartisan support in June. That did not stop Republican lawmakers from characterizing the bill as an insidious attempt by Democrats to spend hundreds of billions on unrelated causes.

As I get ready to post this, they're still at it in the Senate; the Rs are still fighting, but the Dems are holding strong. We'll see how long it takes for the 'vote-a-rama' to end.

See you later for Sunday School, if not sooner. 

Sunday School 7/31/22: Extra Credit

Picking up where we left off with your Sunday School, we're back in the Face the Nation classroom with John Dickerson and Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. 

If I had to pick a favorite Fed banker, he'd be it; I've learned from and enjoyed his interviews. 

Kashkari's concerned about inflation, of course, saying that it's "higher than we expect. And it's not just a few categories. It's spreading out more broadly across the economy." And that, of course, explains why the Fed is "acting with such urgency" to rein it in.

He said that while wages are going up, they're not keeping up with inflation, so "real wages, real income" are going down. He also gave a simple definition of inflation. 

Just at its basic level, inflation is when demand is outstripping supply. We know supply is low because of supply chains, because of the war in Ukraine, because of COVID. We hoped that supply would come online more quickly. That hasn't happened. So, we have to get demand down into balance. Now, I hope we get some help on the supply side. But that doesn't change the fact that the Federal Reserve has its job to do, and we are committed to doing it.

And what does "help on the supply side" look like? Kashkari said he speaks with "global businesses" that are working on getting their supply chains "sorted out" so they can have products on shelves and meet demand. Some progress is being made, he said, but "it's taking a lot longer than they thought," and longer than he thought, too, which is why the Fed's efforts are needed.

Dickerson mentioned his conversations with Sens. Manchin and Toomey about taxing corporations that aren't paying a minimum tax now. He wondered if that would hurt supplies and increase inflation.

Kashkari said that's the same thing people say about raising interest rates, and he also talked about the difference between the long-term, where both higher taxes and higher interest rates could have an impact, and the short-term, which is where we have to focus now, because 

the demand side effects totally swamp the supply side effects. And so, when I look at a bill that's being considered, that your two senators talked about, my guess is over the next couple of years it's not going to have much of an impact on inflation. It's not going to affect how I analyze inflation over the next few years. I think long-term it may have some effect. But, over the near term, we have an acute mismatch between demand and supply. And it's really up to the Federal Reserve to be able to bring that demand down. 

Recession was a topic, too: whether we're in one, and why it matters - or not. Kashkari said "it really matters when Americans feel it, especially in the job market, especially in the job market, that's the most important part of the economy, so to speak, for Americans is their job." 

Do they have a decent place to work and earning decent wages? And, typically, recessions are -- they demonstrate why job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for American families. And we're not seeing anything like that. The labor market, so far, is very strong. We are seeing some sectors, like the tech sector, start to shed workers or start to cool down in hiring. But fundamentally, the labor market appears to be very strong.

This is the reason why President Biden said, to equal parts dismay and delight, "that doesn't sound like a recession to me." Kashkari did say that "GDP, the amount the economy is producing, appears to be shrinking." These are the "mixed signals" that everyone's trying to figure out - mostly by talking to Larry Summers, it seems. 

Kashkari isn't focused on that so much.

From my perspective, in terms of getting inflation in check, whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn't change my analysis. I'm focused on the inflation data. I'm focused on the wage data. And, so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow. So far, the labor market is very, very strong. And that means whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn't change the fact that the Federal Reserve has its own work to do, and we are committed to doing it.

And, a final thought on GDP: Dickerson said when it goes down, "isn't that kind of what the Fed's trying to do, slow down growth...?" Kashkari said they "definitely want to see some slowing," and that they don't want the economy to overheat. And, he was honest about the situation; he admitted there's "not a great record" of transitioning to a "sustainable economy" without pushing it into recession.

Typically, when the economy slows down, it slows down by quite a bit, especially if it's the central bank that is inducing the slowdown. So, we're going to do everything we can to try to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down and we are going to do what we need to do. And we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2 percent inflation. And that's where we need to get to.

Are you feeling the recession, or are you just feeling inflation? Or, maybe you're lucky and aren't feeling the pinch at all? Chime in if you like.

See you around campus. 

Sunday School 8/2/20

Here are your highlights from Sunday morning classrooms.

First up? Dana Bash and Dr. Deborah Birx on CNN's State of the Union, starting with whether we're in a new phase of the virus.

What we are seeing today is different from March and April. It is extraordinarily widespread. It's into the rural as equal (to) urban areas. And to everybody who lives in a rural area, you are not immune or protected from this virus. And that is why we keep saying, no matter where you live in America, you need to wear a mask and socially distance, do the personal hygiene pieces... This epidemic right now is different, and it's wide -- it's more widespread. 

On whether we need a federal government 'reset'; it's been suggested by folks at Johns Hopkins, who said "The United States is not currently on course to get control of the epidemic. It's time to reset." 

Well, I think the federal government reset about five to six weeks ago, when we saw this starting to happen across the South. And that is why we have done these very -- rather than generic federal framework, we have gone to very specific state and local, city by city, county by county, showing out which counties and which cities are under a particular threat and what mitigation has to be done.

On whether it's possible we could see 300,000 deaths by the end of the year, as has been suggested by former FDA head Scott Gottlieb:

-- you know, public health is called public health because it has a public component. And we need all of the public to help us get control of this virus. If we still are going to parties at home, even though the bars are closed, if we are creating interactions where we know it's not safe, because there's multiple people there, and you don't have masks on, and you're not socially distanced, you can assume...  It's not super-spreading individuals. It's super-spreading events. And we need to stop those. We definitely need to take more precautions.

I think I have to agree with many who've suggested that she's converted from scientist to apologist and cheerleader for the administration. Either that, or she's been learning howto not answer questions from Mike Pence.

Over in NBC's Meet the Press classroom, Chuck Todd and Adm. Brett Giroir, the testing guy for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, chatted about things, including whether we're "ever going to be able to get this testing strategy right":

...we've increased our testing by 32,000%. We're completing over 80% of our tests within three days, almost 90%t within five days. Of course, we're going to improve that. We're continuing to improve that. By September, we'll have over 23 million point-of-care tests, so we are improving that. But I do want to get the opportunity to put testing in context. And I think that's very important. How we use it, how we rely on it, and how we fix the outbreak right now by using testing selectively the way we're doing it in all the southern states.

On whether we're doing selective testing (based on defined risk or symptom criteria, rather than "if you want a test, you can get a test") because we don't have capacity, and if that's the case, why aren't we using the Defense Production Act (DPA):

We look every day for opportunities to use the DPA or other investments. And when it's possible to do that, we do that... The DPA is not a magic wand. It can't create something out of nothing. It can be used as an effective tool, and that's the way we're doing it. But testing is a part of the strategy. We don't test our way out of this. We do smart policies with testing as an adjunct... And you know what that is. Wear a mask, avoid crowded indoor places, use good hygiene, and avoid crowds. And if we do those things, that will reduce the overall outbreak to levels that will go down significantly. And that's what we're seeing across the South.

On whether the Task Force is recommending "partial shutdowns" in the red zone states:

 ...both for the red zone states and the emerging yellow states, we have really good data now... that if you do simple measures like avoid the indoor crowded places, and a lot of times that are indoor bars, but you can't have a hundred people at your house either. Do less indoor dining, because that's another place. Wearing a mask is incredibly important, but we have to have like 85% or 90% of individuals wearing a mask and avoiding crowds. That is essentially -- gives you the same outcome as a complete shutdown. 

And on whether hydroxychloroquine is a danger to public health:

... at first hydroxychloroquine looked very promising. There were not the definitive studies. At this point in time, there has been five randomized controlled, placebo-controlled trials that do not show any benefit to hydroxychloroquine. So, at this point in time, we don't recommend that as a treatment. There's no evidence to show that it is... Right now, hydroxychloroquine, I can't recommend that.

...hydroxychloroquine needs to be prescribed by a physician. There may be circumstances, I don't know what they are, where a physician may prescribe it for an individual. But I think most physicians and prescribers are evidence-based and they're not influenced by whatever is on Twitter or anything else. And the evidence just doesn't show that hydroxychloroquine is effective right now. I think we need to move on from that and talk about what is effective.

That would be hand-washing, mask-wearing, social distancing, and the like. And some better treatment protocols, too. But not hydroxychloroquine.

And our last drop in? That was the Face the Nation hall, where John Dickerson talked with Neel Kashkari, the head of the Minneapolis Fed, where the first question was what Kashkari saw inside the horrible Q2 GDP numbers:

The US personal savings rate has taken off. Before the crisis, it was around 8%. Now it's around 20%. Now, let me tell you what's going on. Those of us who are fortunate enough to still have our jobs, we're saving a lot more money because we're not going to restaurants or movie theaters or vacations. That actually means we have a lot more resources as a country to support those who've been laid off. And so while historically we would worry about racking up too much debt, we're generating this savings ourselves. That means Congress has the resources to support those who are most hurting.

On whether racking up debt will be something we have to deal with eventually: 

It's simply not an issue because we're not having to go abroad to fund these extra- the extra money for the CARES Act or whatever is to come. So that provides a lot of relief right now. And if you look over the long term, our inflation has been very low. Inflation continues to be low. Inflation expectations continue to drift lower. Right now, the US can fund itself at very, very low rates. Congress should use this opportunity to support the American people and the American economy. I'm not worried about it. We- if we get the economy growing, we will be able to pay off the debt.

On whether he's seen any evidence that supports the Republican argument that the $600 bonus unemployment is keeping people at home instead of working:

Well, not right now, not when 20 million people are out of work relative to February. There's just so many fewer jobs than there are workers available. At some point it'll be an issue. When we get the unemployment rate eventually back down to 5% and we want to get it back down to 4% or 3.5% where it was before, yes, that disincentive to work becomes material. But right now, it's simply not a factor in the macro economy that we have in the US because we have so many millions of Americans out of work.

On what role fear plays in Kashkari's assessment of our economic behavior, particularly given our consumer-driven economy:

Oh, fear's a huge factor. You can see this around the world. Some countries that didn't lock down officially based on public policy had a similar economic response because their own citizens were afraid and they said, no, I'm not taking that risk. I'm going to shelter at home. And so we all - many of your viewers, the American people, are paying close attention to what's happening to the virus. And you're seeing a similar economic behavior around the country, regardless of local public policy.

So fear is a huge driver, and that's why they need to have confidence that they will be safe, their families will be safe, their kids will be safe. And until we have that real confidence, not just wishful thinking, but in the data, real evidence that it's safe, we're not going to have a meaningful economic recovery.

Do you agree? At some point, do we just need to stop being afraid? And what data will it take for us to get there? Kids going back to school safely?  I'm not sure... 

Whether you're afraid or not, be sure you're doing your part, and remember what Admiral Giroir says:

Wear a mask, avoid crowded indoor places, use good hygiene, and avoid crowds. 

Stay safe; I'll see you around the virtual campus. 

TGiF 6/26/20

Well, looky here -- another Friday already!

Let's take a peek at just a slice of what's going on out there, shall we?

For starters, the Federal Reserve did some foot-putting-down this week. According to an article in the New York Times,  the country's biggest banks are barred from buying back their own stocks or increasing dividend payments in the 3rd quarter.

The decision to limit payouts is an admission by the Fed that large financial institutions, while far better off than they were in the financial crisis, remain vulnerable to an economic downturn unlike any other in modern history. With virus cases across the United States still surging and business activity subdued, it remains unclear when and how robustly the economy will recover.

There's some other stuff in there, too - more thinking and planning from the banks, some additional stress testing, and whatnot.

Are you a dead person? If so, you might want to look for your stimulus payment - it could be waiting for you!  That's right - around $1.4B was sent to 1.1M people who are no longer with us. We learned this from a GAO report, which said, in part

Treasury and IRS did not use the death records to stop payments to deceased individuals for the first three batches of payments because of the legal interpretation under which IRS was operating. 

I suspect that'll be fixed before any other direct payments go out to people again.

The European Union has gone and done it, they did: most travelers from the US will be barred from entering the bloc when they reopen next week.  The article highlights that Europe will allow outsiders to begin entering again on July 1, but the US and Russia are now among the nations considered too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak.

By contrast, travelers from more than a dozen countries that are not overwhelmed by the coronavirus are set to be welcomed when the bloc reopens after months of lockdown on July 1. The acceptable countries include China - but only if China allows European Union travelers to visit as well, the officials said. 

It's some kind of interesting karma, don't you think, after we shut down travel from Europe back in March?

What brought Walmart and the Mississippi Baptist Convention together? The Mississippi state flag, that's what. The retailer says it will no longer display it and that not doing so is "consistent with Walmart's position not to sell merchandise with the confederate flag," while the Baptists said

While some may see the current flag as a symbol of heritage, a significant portion of our state sees it as a relic of racism and a symbol of hatred. The racial overtones of the flag's appearance make this a moral issue. 

And Vice President and vote-by-mail fraudster Mike Pence, at the first White House Coronavirus Task Force press conference in a nearly two months, said that holding rallies in the middle of a pandemic, and not wearing masks when you do that, is freedom of speech and peaceable assemblage and oh, by the way, there's an election coming up. This is one of those cases where the last should be first, I think.

On to some good news:

• A 90-year-old woman named Margaret Payne from Sutherland, Scotland, climbed 2,398 feet - the height of Suilven mountain, which she climbed as a child - by walking up her stairs 282 times. Over the 73 days it took her to complete the climb, she raised $521,000 for the National Health Service.
• Ashanti Palmer, who was the valedictorian of her class, graduated this year having had perfect attendance forever. Seriously, she never missed a day of school from pre-K through 12th grade. She figured it out in 10th grade that she hadn't missed a single day, and then worked to keep her streak alive.  Headed to RPI to study biomedical engineering and medicine, she's gotten more than $430,000 in scholarships to pay for college.
• In an amazing case of generosity and DNA, Terri Herrington donated one of her kidneys to a man who had received Herrington's husband's pancreas and kidney 16 years earlier. Their story is heartwarming, for sure. 
• Mary Trump, niece of the president, might be allowed to publish her book after all. Seems her father, Robert, tried to block it, but Judge Peter J. Kelly said he had no jurisdiction over the family feud. Her father's lawyer has said he'll shop around for a different court to file a new lawsuit. The book, if you want to put it on your to-read list in the event Ms. Trump is successful in fighting off her father, is 'Too Much and Never Enough.'

TGIF, everyone.