Our Sunday School post was devoted to the president's 4th Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows.
Today, we'll hear from a couple of the president's other men: Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow, and from Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
Mnuchin is first, speaking with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday.
On the Republicans taking so long to get a new stimulus plan put together, the Dems having passed one in May, and the Rs missing their own deadlines to announce a bill, potentially causing harm to millions of Americans:
We want to move forward quickly. The bill will be introduced Monday and we're prepared to act quickly. This is all about kids and jobs. This is our focus and we want to make sure something gets passed quickly so that we deal with the unemployment and all the other issues -- Paycheck Protection Plan, tax credits to rehire people and money for schools.
On whether there's really a plan to be announced on Monday:
...we do have an entire plan, it's a trillion dollars. And let me just remind everybody that of the $3 trillion we've already passed, we have about a trillion to a trillion and a half still left to put into the economy. So these are very, very large amount of money, working with Congress to support this. And what Mark Meadows was saying is that within the trillion-dollar package, there are certain things that have time frames that are bigger priority, so we could look at doing an entire deal, we could also look at doing parts... we can move very quickly with the Democrats on these issues. We've moved quickly before and I see no reason why we can't move quickly again. And if there are issues that take longer, we'll -- we'll deal with those as well.
On how much of a reduction there'll be to the expired $600/week unemployment bump:
...as it relates to unemployment insurance, we knew there was going to be large unemployment. We had a technical issue with the states and how they were going to be able to do this. So, we picked a number that on the average looked OK, but what we've seen is now that we want to have the technical correction -- and we want to have something which pays people about 70 percent wage replacement, which I think is a very fair level. So it's not a fixed number, it's something that pays you a percentage of your wages that are lost.
On even Republicans, including Sens. Grassley, Thune and Cornyn, being against the payroll tax cut the president wanted:
There are other Republicans that supported it, and let me just say -- again, we know we need bipartisan support. We have tax credits that we put in here to incentivize people to get back to work and small businesses to hire people. We have the direct payments. And as you know, the direct payments are much quicker way of effectively giving everybody a tax cut and it's much quicker than the payroll tax cut.
On having the extra unemployment be roughly 70% of salary, or around $200 on average, and whether that will cost jobs, especially if there's significant GDP contraction in Q2, as expected:
And I think as we've said, we expect the third quarter, the consensus is 17 percent GDP, so we do think you're going to see a very big rebound. I might just also comment on June retail sales. We're 1 percent higher than June of last year. So all that money we pumped into the economy, it worked. People went out and spent. And on -- as it relates to the unemployment insurance, again, I think workers and Americans understand the concept that you shouldn't be paid more to stay home than to work. That the fair thing is to replace wages and it just wouldn't be fair to use taxpayer dollars to pay more people to sit home than they would get working and get a job.
Optimism abounds with Mnuchin, and even more so with Kudlow, the happy puppy of the administration. He talked with Jake Tapper for CNN's State of the Union.
On Census Bureau data showing that employment is down:
Most people look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics that print out the weekly claims and the monthly jobs numbers. All right, that's what -- I haven't seen those Census numbers. And I don't know that I would put a lot of stock in it, but whatever. The fact remains, as I was saying before, in some places, job increase -- job declines or job increases have been affected. I don't deny it. But it's being made up by people calling back employees, so that, actually, the joblessness rate is going to fall. I'm not going to suggest -- I don't know the July number. We will all learn it in about a week or so. But I do think the odds favor a big increase in job creation and a big reduction in unemployment. I just want to make the point, though, all these other signals, Jake, most economists, Wall Street, elsewhere, are suggesting we are in a self-sustaining recovery. Now, you can argue about the speed of it. I get that. And you can -- and I don't deny that some of these hot spot states are going to moderate that recovery. But, on the whole, the picture is very positive. And I still think the V-shaped recovery is in place. And I still think, Jake, there is going to be 20 percent growth rate in the third and fourth quarters.
On the proposed reduction in the unemployment bump:
It won't stop the assistance. It's going to -- it's going to cap the assistance at a level that is consistent with people going back to work. That's what we have said from day one. First of all, state unemployment benefits stay in place. Second of all, we will try to cap the benefits at about 70 percent of wages. You know, a University of Chicago study showed virtually 70 percent, 68 percent of people actually have higher benefits than wages. We have had a flood of inquiries and phone calls and complaints that small stores and businesses, restaurants can't hire people back. They went too far. Maybe last March, it was necessary for that. But, really, the consequences of people not returning to work -- Secretary Mnuchin said it right. We want to pay folks to go back to work. And, incidentally, we are going to have, on top of the cap of wages, 70 percent, which is quite generous by any standard, on top of that, we will have a reemployment bonus and a retention tax credit bonus for going back to work. So, that's going to more than offset any of this. I mean, the trick here is going back to work. We don't want people out.
And, a random string of what else will be in the Republican package:
Don't forget, in the package, we're talking about a $1,200 assistance check. I just want to add, Jake, I just want to add -- we were talking about employment benefits and so forth. Don't forget, there's a $1,200 check coming. That is going to be part of the new package. I would have preferred a payroll tax cut, on top of that check. But, be that as it may, politically, it doesn't work. But the check is there. The reemployment bonus is there. The retention bonus is there. There will be breaks for small tax credits for small businesses and restaurants. That's all going to be there.
On whether he is on board with the new Republican stimulus bill:
I am not. We have right now two simultaneous national crises. We have a global pandemic. It is serious. It has taken the lives of over six hundred thousand people. We need to do significantly more to fight the disease. At the same time, we have an absolute economic catastrophe. We have over forty-four million Americans have lost their job, and we have got to get America back to work... (Speaker Pelosi's) objectives are shoveling cash at the problem and shutting America down. And, in particular, you look at the three-trillion-dollar bill she is trying to push. It's just shoveling money to her friends and not actually solving the problem. Our objective should be Americans want to get back to work. They want to be able to provide for their family.
On whether he is willing to consider a lower bump in unemployment insurance:
I- look, I- what we ought to focus on, instead of just shoveling trillions out the door, we ought to be passing a recovery bill. Now, what's a recovery bill? A recovery bill would be lifting the taxes and the regulations that are hammering small businesses so that people can go back to work. A recovery bill-would suspend the payroll tax, which would give a- a- a pay raise to everyone in America who is working. That actually gets people back to work. But what- I am on board with restarting the economy. What- what Democrats want to do- we're a hundred days out from the presidential election. The only objective Democrats have is to defeat Donald Trump, and they've cynically decided the best way to defeat Donald Trump is shut down every business in America, shut down every school in America. You know Nancy Pelosi talks about working men and women. What she's proposing is keeping working men and women from working. And, you know, ironically, what she does have in her bill? She has a big tax cut for millionaires and billionaires in blue states.
Sadly, Brennan didn't have time to probe that last part.
So, there you have it -- three more Republicans painting us a nice picture of what's to come, in the next stimulus as well as in the jobs number and overall economic growth. Let's hope all of that adds up to a nice stimulus in your Extra Credit points, right? And, do you agree with the rosy picture, or no?
Drop a comment, let me know what you think.
Stay safe. See you around the virtual campus.
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