Poll Watch: #BLM, Race Relations and More

A few days back, in a post on recent polling, I promised I'd share some data on the #BlackLivesMatter movement, racism, and related topics. 

In this post, we'll look at outcomes from an in-depth survey of 9,654 U.S. adults conducted June 4-10, 2020, using the Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, in conjunction with the Center’s American News Pathways project. This survey clearly shows both a racial and partisan divide in how people see things in the country.

Support for the Black Lives Matter movement
Overall, at the time of the survey, the Black Lives Matter movement had pretty solid support across the board. Roughly two-thirds of all adults (67%) support it, with 38% expressing strong support.

Blacks (86% total, 71% strongly), Hispanics (77%/42%) and Asians (75%/39%) offer more support than whites (60%/31%). And even a plurality (40%) of Republicans and those leaning Republican support the movement, although only 10% offer strong support.  

Looking at just white adults, support among the Republicans/leaning R falls to 37%, with 7% strongly supporting the movement, compared to 92% of Democrats/leaning D overall supporting BLM, 62% strongly.

The president's Handling of Race Relations
The disparity between Republicans and Democrats is stark here, with 38%, 67%, and 24% swings on how the president's actions have impacted race relations; the Rs are much more positive on the president's efforts than the Ds.

Also interesting here? The fact that, compared to blacks and Asians, Hispanics are less likely to say the president has made race relations worse, and are more inclined to say that at least he's trying to make progress.

Black Lives Matter Protest/Rallies
For this question, respondents were asked to say whether the options presented were contributing factors to the Black Lives Matter protests and rallies. Political affiliation seems to have a strong influence here as well, particularly on the 'criminal behavior' question, where there's a 43-point difference.

Race or Ethnicity-based Experiences
Respondents were asked to say whether they had any of several experiences because of their race or ethnicity. Not surprisingly, blacks were more likely to experience these things than whites, Hispanics, or Asians.

The relatively high percentage of Asians being subjected to jokes and slurs and fearing for their safety bears out the info we've seen correlating the president's racist rhetoric about China and the coronavirus and acts of hate towards Asians, including the first responders who are saving lives, or trying to, each and every day during the pandemic.

The relatively high percentage of whites - nearly a third - who say they've been the victim of slurs and jokes is surprising, as is the 9% reporting they were unfairly stopped by law enforcement simply for being white.

And, finally, among black adults, 64% of men and 32% of women say they've been stopped by the police simply because they are black. No other race comes close.

Helping Blacks Achieve Racial Equality
This last section is very interesting; it looks at various methods that could be used to drive change and bring about racial equality for blacks.

Overall, most Americans believe that each of the options presented - working directly with blacks in their communities (82%), bring together people of different racial backgrounds to talk about race (74%), working to get more blacks elected of office (68%) and even organizing protests and rallies (55%) - are effective tools.

As shown below, smaller numbers believe that these methods would be very effective. As we've seen in the other segments of the surveys, there's a divide between Republicans and Democrats; most notably, opinions differ widely on the effectiveness of getting more blacks in office.

Most notable is the difference in thinking on getting more blacks in office. In fact, only 10% of Republicans think that would be very effective, only 1% higher than the number thinking that organizing protests and rallies would be. Not only that, but 49% of Republicans and those leaning Republican think that getting more blacks elected to office would be not too effective, or not effective at all.

Is that because they think it won't matter, because they'll be such a small minority and not able to have an impact?

Or, maybe because they like things the way are now? You know:  there are only three black senators - Dems Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, and Rep Tim Scott, and there have only been seven others before them in history. And, there have only been four black governors, going back to the 1870s, the most recent being Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, who left office in 2015.  Maybe that's enough?

Other Findings

• 69% of American adults have had a conversation about race with family and friends in the last month; another 13% have done this, but not as recently
• Among social media users, 37% have posted something about race in the last month; we know, from our own experience (if yours is anything like mine) that this includes people who are posting pro-Black Lives Matter, anti-Black Lives Matter,  All Lives Matter and Blue Lives Matter, as well as "stop talking about this already!" messages.  The number of people who have ever shared something about race on social media is 46%.
•  9% have donated money within the last month to a group or organization focusing on racial equality or race in the last month. Asians (21%), blacks (13%), and Hispanics (11%) are all more likely than whites (7%) to have done this. 
• Folks in the 18-29 and 30-49 age brackets are more likely to have done any of these things, or to have attended a rally or protest, than any other age groups. 
• And, again not surprisingly, Dems and those leaning Dem are more likely to have done these than their Republican/leaning Republican counterparts. Most notably? Only 3% of Republicans have donated in support of race or racial equality.

In looking at the survey as a whole, it's pretty clear where battle lines have been drawn. It will be interesting to see whether political rhetoric changes these metrics, and what impact these opinions will have, if any, on the November election.