November 20, 2017

Poll Watch: The GOP Tax Plan

It appears that Americans continue to be less than delighted with the GOP tax plan, if the results from the latest Quinnipiac poll are any indication. 

Here's some of the small print stuff, with understanding how the poll worked:  the survey was conducted on land line and cell phones November 7 - 13, 2017, and included 1,577 people self-identifying as registered voters. The overall margin of error is +/- 3%.

So, let's dive into the tax questions of the survey, which also asked about guns and Russia:

  • By a margin of 52% - 25%, voters disapprove of the GOP tax plan. Only Republicans approve (60% - 15%), all other demographic groups (Democrats, Independents; men and women; those with college degrees and those without, all age groups, all income groups. and all economic classes). 23% are undecided on the plan.
  • For the most part, people think the plan will have little impact on them personally (36%); of the rest, more people think their taxes will go up (35%) than think their taxes will go down (16%). That's true across all age groups and all economic classes. 
  • By a pretty wide margin, more people disapprove of how president Trump is handling taxes (55%) than approve (34%). And, that number is trending poorly for Trump; in October, the percentages were 37% approve and 49% disapprove.
  • Voters don't believe the tax plan will lead to an increase in jobs and economic growth, either. 52% say no; 36% say yes, and 12% don't know. And while 78% of Republicans think we will see jobs and economic growth stemming from the tax plan, that enthusiasm is not shared. The highest income group - those making more than $250K/year - and those who consider themselves upper middle class - do not believe that'll be the case. Only 33% of the highest wage earners and 32% of the upper middles are optimistic on this one.

And, again almost universally, with Republicans the outlier, survey respondents believe the wealthy will benefit more than anyone else. Overall, 6% think the low income will benefit most; 24% think the middle class will, and 61% think the wealthy are the big winners. Here are some of the other breakdowns.
  • Republicans:  53% middle class; 
  • Democrats:  88% wealthy; 
  • Independents: 65% wealthy.
  • Men: 58% wealthy; 
  • Women: 63% wealthy.
  • 18 - 34 year olds: 62% wealthy; 
  • 35 - 49 year olds: 66% wealthy; 
  • 50 - 64 year olds: 60% wealthy; 
  • 65+: 59% wealthy; 
  • < $30K annual income: 66% wealthy; 
  • $30K - $50K: 56% wealthy; 
  • $50K - $100K: 60% wealthy; 
  • $100 -$250K: 66% wealthy; 
  • > $250K: 70% wealthy.
  • Working class: 57% wealthy;
  • Middle class: 61% wealthy;
  • Upper middle class+: 65% wealthy

These results are interesting, especially when contrasted with the president's comments before his cabinet meeting today. You know, those little made-for-TV adventures we get to see every now and then?  Here's a snippet of what Trump had to say.
We're going to give the American people a huge tax cut for Christmas. Hopefully that will be a great, big, beautiful Christmas present.
With the Democrats giving us no votes for tax cuts, for purely political reasons - obstructionists - it will be up to the Republicans to come through for America. I think they will. I hope they will. It's up to the Senate. And if they approve it, the House and the Senate will get together - I'll be there right in the middle of it -- and we will come up with a bill that will be spectacular for growth and spectacular for the people of this country.
It seems there's a disconnect between the White House and the rest of the world; it also seems that the Republicans may want to run for the hills to keep the president out of the middle of their discussions.

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