Here's some of the small print stuff, with understanding how the poll worked: the survey was conducted on land line and cell phones November 7 - 13, 2017, and included 1,577 people self-identifying as registered voters. The overall margin of error is +/- 3%.
So, let's dive into the tax questions of the survey, which also asked about guns and Russia:
- By a margin of 52% - 25%, voters disapprove of the GOP tax plan. Only Republicans approve (60% - 15%), all other demographic groups (Democrats, Independents; men and women; those with college degrees and those without, all age groups, all income groups. and all economic classes). 23% are undecided on the plan.
- For the most part, people think the plan will have little impact on them personally (36%); of the rest, more people think their taxes will go up (35%) than think their taxes will go down (16%). That's true across all age groups and all economic classes.
- By a pretty wide margin, more people disapprove of how president Trump is handling taxes (55%) than approve (34%). And, that number is trending poorly for Trump; in October, the percentages were 37% approve and 49% disapprove.
- Voters don't believe the tax plan will lead to an increase in jobs and economic growth, either. 52% say no; 36% say yes, and 12% don't know. And while 78% of Republicans think we will see jobs and economic growth stemming from the tax plan, that enthusiasm is not shared. The highest income group - those making more than $250K/year - and those who consider themselves upper middle class - do not believe that'll be the case. Only 33% of the highest wage earners and 32% of the upper middles are optimistic on this one.
And, again almost universally, with Republicans the outlier, survey respondents believe the wealthy will benefit more than anyone else. Overall, 6% think the low income will benefit most; 24% think the middle class will, and 61% think the wealthy are the big winners. Here are some of the other breakdowns.
- Republicans: 53% middle class;
- Democrats: 88% wealthy;
- Independents: 65% wealthy.
- Men: 58% wealthy;
- Women: 63% wealthy.
- 18 - 34 year olds: 62% wealthy;
- 35 - 49 year olds: 66% wealthy;
- 50 - 64 year olds: 60% wealthy;
- 65+: 59% wealthy;
- < $30K annual income: 66% wealthy;
- $30K - $50K: 56% wealthy;
- $50K - $100K: 60% wealthy;
- $100 -$250K: 66% wealthy;
- > $250K: 70% wealthy.
- Working class: 57% wealthy;
- Middle class: 61% wealthy;
- Upper middle class+: 65% wealthy
These results are interesting, especially when contrasted with the president's comments before his cabinet meeting today. You know, those little made-for-TV adventures we get to see every now and then? Here's a snippet of what Trump had to say.
We're going to give the American people a huge tax cut for Christmas. Hopefully that will be a great, big, beautiful Christmas present.
With the Democrats giving us no votes for tax cuts, for purely political reasons - obstructionists - it will be up to the Republicans to come through for America. I think they will. I hope they will. It's up to the Senate. And if they approve it, the House and the Senate will get together - I'll be there right in the middle of it -- and we will come up with a bill that will be spectacular for growth and spectacular for the people of this country.It seems there's a disconnect between the White House and the rest of the world; it also seems that the Republicans may want to run for the hills to keep the president out of the middle of their discussions.