Sunday School 5/22/22

Let's dive in to your Sunday School lessons, starting with Margaret Brennan and former Dubya and Obama Defense Secretary Robert Gates in the Face the Nation classroom.

On the expansion of NATO, with Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance, Gates gives Vladimir Putin a lot of credit.

...it's an amazing thing he's done because he's -- he's gotten Sweden to abandon 200 years of neutrality... one of his many huge miscalculations in invading Ukraine is he has dramatically changed the geostrategic posture of western Europe... 

Speaking of the Ukraine war and 'winning,' he said 

If winning means taking over the country and absorbing it into Russia, the whole country, I think that's very unlikely at this point... in terms of pushing on to Odessa or trying to bring a change of government in Kyiv or absorb Ukraine, I think if that's winning, I don't see that he can win. 

Brennan asked about Putin resorting to tactical nukes; Gates said the chance is "low, but not zero." Without any military purpose - "no large masses of Ukrainian forces that would be taken out," the only purpose would be 

to try and break the will of the Ukrainian people. And I think that moment has come and gone. I don't think that there's anything at this point that will break the will of the Ukrainian people.

Not only that, but according to Gates, in that neck of the woods, the winds "tend to blow from the west..." You get the drift of that, right? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Gates says China can't make up for all the economic losses Russia is facing; he also thinks Xi Jinping will realize that he may have "totally underestimated the West," including America's leadership, Europe's coming together, and the power of the shared sanctions. And, he may have to take a hard look at his own military, given how things have gone for Putin, and ask himself if his military's as good as his people say it is. 

Brennan asked him about "polarization" in our country, which Gates has said was our "biggest threat." He hasn't seen a whole lot of improvement, although "there is one glimmer of hope," thanks to Xi and Putin - and it extends beyond the situation in Ukraine.

They've actually brought Republicans and Democrats together on Capitol Hill, and with the administration.... so maybe that's a foundation. Maybe there's a way to build on that. And, who knows, if you begin to get it in national security policy, maybe you can get it in some other places.

Next, let's head to the right and into the Fox News Sunday classroom, where Martha MacCallum chatted with Brian Deese, National Economic Council director. He's not a fan of the 'r' word, as MacCallum called it, but he sure is a fan of words.

While there are absolutely risks with inflation front -- first and foremost, this is what's most important, the United States is better positioned than any other major economy to bring inflation down and address these challenges without giving up all of the economic gains we've made, and that's because of the strength of our recovery. We have the strongest job market in modern history. Americans are getting back to work in jobs with higher pay. And that's meant that Americans can increase their savings, pay down their debt. Businesses are investing. Entrepreneurs are creating new businesses at record rates. And manufacturing is coming back to the United States at record rates as well...

MacCallum interjected, saying "I know that 'recession' is a technical term -- but you know... whether or not we hit that technical benchmark, Americans feel like they are in a recession... So, I'm asking for your opinion, as the economic advisor at the White House, should people be prepared in the United States that we are or will be in several months heading into a recession?"

Blah blah blah, "people should also take confidence that we are better positioned than any other country to navigate through this and keep our recovery going." blah blah blah 'What we need to do now --" 

And again, MacCallum tried to pin him down. "You know, so I'm just asking, what -- what do you recommend to them in terms of specifics and what they can do to try to whether this a little bit easier as we go through what you're calling a transition?"

Blah blah blah "these prices create real hardship and they also create uncertainty. We understand that" blah blah blah "top economic priority." We can do this, he said, 

First, we need to give the Federal Reserve the independence to do what it does. It has the tools to combat inflation. Second, we need to reduce costs and make things more affordable for families during this period. So, steps that we can take to reduce the cost of the Internet bills that families pay, or the prescription drug prices that they pay a really important right now. And, third, we need to bring down the federal deficit. Because of the president's policies, we've made a lot of progress on that front, the deficit down $1.5 trillion already this year. But we need to make more progress on that as well. That will help reduce price pressures in the economy.

Blah blah blah "we can navigate through to more stable growth that will generate better outcomes for families" blah blah blah "we're on the way. We've got to focus on inflation, and that's what this president is doing."

There was more, but you get the drift. High thump factor - lots of words - but I'm not sure if there was anything in it that mattered. He also talked with Dana Bash in the State of the Union classroom; perhaps there's something valuable in that interview.

Finally, Martha Raddatz talked with former Joint Chiefs chair Adm. Mike Mullen in the This Week with George Stephanopoulos classroom. Like Gates, he was moved by requests from Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

What strikes me... is how deeply neutral they had been for decades and decades and how concerned they obviously are with this threat that has been generated by Putin. And so, I’m encouraged by that. I’m encouraged by the unity of NATO. Almost every European I’ve spoken to considers the threat in Europe now existential to them and I think that speaks to the -- the move on the part of both Sweden and Finland. And I'm -- I'm encouraged by that. I don't think that it will cause, you know, a nuclear action on the part of Putin at this particular point.

He believes Putin originally wanted "to take Kyiv, overturn the government, put a puppet in as a leader," but now "he is going to do everything he possibly can to lose as little in the east as possible." Given that President Zelenskyy also wants that territory, 

I think we're in for a long one. It's going to be bloody. It's going to be visible. It's going to be what war is. I think we'll see Putin continue to devastate the infrastructure with respect to how he approaches it, the long-range weapons. I think what we've done to supply them has been extraordinary, quite frankly, and we need to continue to do that.

He's "encouraged" that communication channels between high-ranking Americans (Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin) and their Russian counterparts have reopened. As to what the re-opened communications mean? He said it's hard to know, but it's a "big step... and hopefully" it's a start towards getting "some diplomatic outcome..."

All wars have to end. We need to be thinking more and more about what does that mean, what's on -- both sides, what is -- what's OK so that this is contained as opposed to exploding into a massive Holocaust for not just for the region but for the world.

Moving to North Korean, Mullen called it "deja vu all over again, from his father, and his grandfather, as well as Kim Jong-un himself." There's "no easy answer here," and there's no solution without Beijing.

And our relationship with China is -- is worsening, so that makes it -- solving this more difficult. I'm encouraged by the president's trip. I'm encouraged by the time he spent in South Korea and I know he just arrived in Japan. And I'm encouraged ... that they're working together, and that trilateral peace - Japan, South Korea, and the US - working together is really critical.

He said that Biden's meeting with the other three 'quad' countries - Australia, Japan, and India - is "fully critical to contain what will be a real challenge in North Korea" and its development of nukes.

Finally, because everyone in the classrooms was asked about baby formula, regardless of their role, Raddatz brought it up. I like the way he handled the question, championing the accomplishments of the US military.

..., I'm so encouraged by what our troops have been able to do. So, a C-17 that could fly howitzers, you know, into Germany to support Ukraine, turns around and -- and flies 71,000 pounds of baby formula back to the US. In two days. In two days, land in Indiana. 

Good on them. 

See you around campus.

Sunday School 11/29/20

Welcome back, students. I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving break - I know I enjoyed mine. And honestly? It was nice to leave you alone for a few days, don't you agree? 

I mean, we all know what's been going on: the president has been whining, golfing, lying, and threatening people. Joe Biden announced some cabinet picks. Crazy lawyers have been holding whacky press conferences. Talking heads have been talking. In a nutshell, the usual suspects are acting in the usual manner - this script writes itself. 

But now we're back, so let's pick it up again, starting with Chuck Todd and his interview with Adm. Mike Mullen (Ret.), who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs under both Dubya and Barack Obama, in the Meet the Press classroom. 

Mullen thinks the assassination of Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh makes it "much more challenging" for Joe Biden vis a vis the Iran nuclear deal; he also noted "there's an Israeli component" here, not in the context of allegations that Israel was behind the killing. Rather, he thinks the Israelis will do whatever they can to make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. He hopes Biden can deal with the treaty and that he can "calm the waters" between the two countries.

Mullen's concerned about who's in the Pentagon,  and the people who were fired or left. 

...There are some real Trump loyalists there now, in charge, and it's pretty difficult to think that over the course of 50 or 60 days you can do something constructive, but you can do something that's really destructive. 

He said that he'd "be concerned" that issues will be raised like the one that was widely reported about a debate on taking some kind of action against Iran (Trump nixed that, we were told). He also said "we need to be very careful with" troop draw-downs.

The reality is, on the ground in places like Somalia and Afghanistan, there are still terrorists who would do us ill, and I want to play, actually, the game on their turf, and not play it here. 

And, he said, he learned on the Bush II to Obama transition that a president shouldn't be boxing in the incoming president, you want "to give (him) as many options and as much space as possible." And that, he said is "obviously the opposite case right now."

So, it appears that the current administration is trying to lock in as many options as -- as many issues as possible to make it much more difficult for President-elect Biden to govern. And actually, historically, that has just never been the case

His concern with that, and the late start that the Biden team has? 

I think, our allies, our friends, and our enemies look at us at a time of real fragility in that regard, and our enemies always try to look and take advantage of a transition period.

Next, let's move on to CNN's State of the Union classroom, where Dana Bash talked with Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), the chair of the Senate Rules Committee (it oversees elections.) Blunt refused to come right out and say that he accepts that Joe Biden is the President-elect. I've added some emphasis. Here's his first dodge.

Well, we are certainly moving forward as if that what is going to happen on January the 20th...But the president wants to see this process play out. The president-elect technically has to be elected president by the electors. That happens in the middle of December. And then, January the 6th, I'm one of the four members of the Congress that participates in the joint session that decides that those electoral votes are fully accepted. And, of course, that is when this process is over, when those votes are accepted and counted.

And, he said, transition money's been released, and folks are "working with the Biden administration, likely administration, on both the transition and the inauguration, as if we are moving forward."

Bash picked up on his "likely administration' comment and said, "So, is it safe to say that you do consider Joe Biden the president-elect?" Again,

Well, the president-elect will be the president-elect when the electors vote for him. There is no official job president-elect... And I think I'm on a list of -- that you're keeping at your network of Republican senators who haven't yet acknowledged that there's a president-elect, as if that's a significant thing.

Bash said it's not just the title of 'President-elect,' it's that Trump lost, he's losing the lawsuits, states are certifying the votes, "and, maybe even more importantly, the president is undermining the democratic process by talking about fraud that nobody can find..."  Blunt's response?

Well... We're at about -- we're at about the end of that process. And when that - when the states have certified, when this process is over, that's when you come to a conclusion. That's why these things are set up in that way.

And, he said, our democratic processes are strong enough to handle this crap (not in so many words, of course), and that he hopes Georgia Republicans go out and vote in the runoff, and "the president says he is going to Georgia next Saturday, so he must be thinking that voters need to vote as well."

He also he wishes that people would have been able to see that signatures were being checked in Pennsylvania, noting that

When you send ballots out to people that you don't know if they are still there or not, and they come back and you don't check the signatures, that is a huge problem."

Here's Bash putting a 'put that in your pipe and smoke it' kind of exclamation point on that part of their conversation.

OK. And, Senator, just to put a button on that, there is no evidence that people didn't see signatures. In fact, the state Supreme Court and now federal court have both thrown out the notion that that didn't happen. 

Finally, Martha Raddatz talked with another defense expert, Adm. William McRaven (Ret.), in ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos classroom. McRaven has not been shy in speaking out against Trump's leadership, in announcing his vote for Joe Biden, or that he's briefed the President-elect. McRaven's like Fauci - he's served under six presidents.

Talking about the murder of Fakhrizadeh, he suggests retaliation is almost inevitable, since they know or suspect that Israel was involved.

I don't see any way around it. They -- they're going to have to save face. And so now the issue becomes, what does that retaliation look like? Does that then begin to escalate the problems in the region? And that's going (not)to be good for anybody. The Iranians don't want to war with us. We don't want to go to war with Iran. So everybody needs to do the best they can to kind of lower the temperature and -- and try not to get this into an escalation mode.

McRaven shares Mullen's concerns about Trump having "taken out all the leadership in the Department of Defense," and replaced them with inexperienced people. And he's also concerned about the troop draw-downs, and more.

But what it appears is that this new administration in the Department of Defense is really rushing to get a lot of Trump's agenda resolved before a President Biden comes in.

He says "the rest of the world, of course, is just looking for a Biden administration to come in," and that they've been concerned for a long time about Trump.

And, frankly, if we are going to move forward, if this new national security team is going to move forward, they are going to need strong alliances. They are going to need a strong NATO. They are going to need strong partnerships with the ASEAN nations, for the African Union. 

He listed all the agreements and organizations we've abandoned, including the WHO, the TPP, the Paris Climate Accord, and the Open Skies treaty. And that's a problem.

... if we don’t abide by our own treaties, if we don’t recognize and support our own treaties, then who in the international community is going to want to partner with us in the future? So, President Trump has been playing a short game, I would offer. I hope President Biden will come in, strengthen these alliances, strengthen these coalitions, get back in to some of these organizations, as imperfect as they might be, and begin to play the long game.

On Biden's cabinet picks, which Raddatz suggested was a kind of 'back to the future' slate of nominees, McRaven disagrees. 

...this new group of national security professionals coming in are incredibly experienced, incredibly talented and they know each other. And that’s an important factor when it comes to working together. But they are going to approach these issues differently than certainly the Trump administration did, and I would offer to some degree differently than the Obama administration did.

As Raddatz said, "it will be a very interesting time." She's right about that.

See you around campus, assuming you're not in yellow zone or a red zone or under some other non-color-coded restriction. Be smart. Wear your mask. And if one of your elected officials says one thing about how to behave, but does another, please - yell at them, of course, but do as they say, not as they do.  

Be better. 

Sunday School Extra Credit 6/7/2020

This week's Sunday School brought us two former Secretaries of State, General Colin Powell (Ret.) and Condoleezza Rice.

For your Extra Credit, I wanted to share the classroom visits by some of the retired military folks who have been making their voices heard: former Joint Chiefs chair, General Martin Dempsey (Ret.) who was in the classroom with Martha Raddatz on This Week with George; former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), who visited Chuck Todd in the Meet the Press classroom; and former Chair of the Joint Chiefs, General Mike Mullen (Ret.), who was down the hall with  Chris Wallace in the Fox News Sunday classroom.

They were among the many who have recently spoken out about the president, his calling for "dominating the streets" of America, and more; we'll take them in the order listed above.

Raddatz asked Dempsey what he meant when he said Trump's threat to use active duty military in the protests was "dangerous and very troubling." He said he tries to be "thoughtful about the way things evolve," and it was "in the moment" that he thought it would be appropriate to point out the risks.

...obviously, Martha, the president... he’s given a lot of authority by our Constitution and the laws that interpret it. And it’s -- it -- for me it was a 'can' and 'should' dichotomy. And I thought that given the state of the -- of the unrest and the risk that we would put the active duty military in a position where its relationship with the American people would be adversely affected, that I -- that should say something.

Raddatz wondered what effect Trump's and the Administration's rhetoric has on the military and National Guard as they face their fellow Americans. Dempsey talked about the history that he and his generation of military leaders bring to the table - how they spent their careers - two, three or even four decades, in his case - "trying to rebuild our relationship with the American people" after the protracted and unpopular Vietnam war, and after battling racism and drug use in the military, and

... it took us a while to actually regain the trust of the American people. We transitioned from a conscript military to an all-volunteer force. And we have a wonderful relationship with the people in this country. And -- and I thought it important to continue to work to try to keep that relationship sound and solid. And, you know, inflammatory language can -- can be a -- an impediment to that.

They also talked about the photo shoot at St. John's, which occurred after SecDef Mark Esper and current Joint Chiefs chair General Mark Milley tried to talk Trump out of using active duty military forces quell the protests; Dempsey said that "some of the most awkward moments we have in that - in the civil-military relationship are photo ops," and that

...oftentimes the best things come out of, let’s call it 'creative friction.' And this week has certainly been that. But, you know, I’m actually in the camp that says, OK. Look, this last week was one of our most challenging in my memory. What’s -- what’s next? You know, let’s get beyond that and figure out what’s next.

Raddatz mentioned images of unarmed National Guard troops standing alongside "black-clad, pistol-packing DEA agents" and how the distinction was lost on who was armed and who wasn't. She also talked about an ABC reporter, Stephanie Ramos, who's also a Major in the Army reserve, and how she's seen "the difference of how people are treating the Guard and the Reserve, and she's very nervous about that."

Dempsey said Ramos should be nervous; the military is "given enormous power by the people of the United States,"

And they’re given that power because the people of the United States trust them that they’ll be both a -- a force for order and stability overseas. If necessary, in -- in extremis at home, but also that the military will be a positive influence in letting people achieve their potential.

He talked about the box on his desk, engraved with "Make it Matter." It contains a card for each of the 132 men that were lost under his command in Baghdad, back in 2003.  He said it's a reminder that, since they couldn't fulfill their potential, he had to make sure he fulfilled his.  And, bringing it back full circle, he said

That’s what these protests, by the way, it -- it seems to me, are all about is the -- is trying to allow people to actually fulfill their potential, one of the great promises of living in this country. So we have -- we absolutely have to be very careful about how the military is used in that circumstance. 

It's hard to disagree with him on that.

Across the hall in the MTP classroom, Todd asked Admiral Stavridis why he felt compelled to speak out, and why he thought so many other 'four-stars' felt the need to do so. His answer? It's all about the oath they all took, to support and defend the Constitution. He said seeing "armed, active duty military" clearing peaceful protesters from Lafayette Square in DC "...rang echoes of what the founders feared more than anything, which was the use of armed active duty military against citizens." And that's why we have the First Amendment and other protections in the Constitution. 

So I think spectrum that kind of runs from reticent, Jim Mattis, John Kelly, who were part of this administration, to people like me kind of in the center, to people like General John Allen and Admiral Bill McRaven who've been quite critical, that whole spectrum jumped and felt that shock of watching active duty troops clear peaceful protesters. Wrong answer.

Stavridis spent a lot of time outside the US, both during his time as NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and during his time as the head of the US Southern Command; Todd wondered about our loss of standing internationally as a result of what's going on, and if Stavridis was concerned.  Referencing Latin American and Caribbean countries, some of which "who, let's face it, have a long history of dictatorships and repression," he said that he

They've come a long way since the '60s and '70s. But I spent a lot of time talking to those leaders, making sure that they continued on that path. I never thought I would be criticizing my own government in that regard. It's a shocking turn. And to your point, yes, it reduces our moral influence and our leadership role in the world. We ought to worry about that deeply.

On what advise he could give to Esper or General Milley, he said Esper, who's a West Point grad and previously served on active duty, is a political appointee and "sort of signed up for this to a certain degree." But General Milley's in a different situation entirely.

As an active duty officer he's really got two choices here. One is to follow the orders and the other is to reach up under his shoulder, grab those four stars and say, "Sir, I cannot execute that order. I believe it violates my conscious, my view. I gave you my best military advice. You've rejected it." That's a very hard place for any active duty military officer to go. I hope General Milley doesn't have to hit that point.

And finally, on whether Stavridis is concerned about morale at the Pentagon and in the rank-and-file, the answer is yes.

You know, in this country we have about a million police officers. We have 500,000 National Guard who are citizen soldiers who operate under authority of governors. My view, that's plenty of people who can do the policing function. And their real role is to protect these peaceful demonstrators. This is not a battle space to be dominated. These are zones of protests to be protected. There are sufficient forces to do that. And I think the military is very concerned about getting pulled into the maelstrom of politics in an election year in order to push protesters, as they were at Lafayette Square. That was wrong.

I've heard Stavridis before, in a couple of NPR interviews, and I've always liked him.  

Finally, let's take a stroll down the hallway to the Fox News Sunday classroom and Adm. Mike Mullen, who was asked right off the bat by Chris Wallace, after more than three years of no one speaking out, "why now?" Echoing his op-ed piece, he said

I think we've reached an inflection point in the country, and specifically to address the issue of racism, which was obvious, the substantial protests that were out there, mostly peaceful, was a very strong message... the potential use of our military to fight our own people, to deploy in the streets and to use a phrase that the secretary of defense used, to dominate in the battlespace. 

We have a military to fight our enemies, not our own people. And our military should never be called to fight our own people as enemies of the state. And that quite frankly for me really tipped it over.

Wallace recounted what happened a week ago, the Rose Garden "I am your president of law and order, and an ally of all peaceful protesters" statement, which also included the promise (threat?) to deploy the military if the states didn't handle things themselves, and of course the infamous Bible photo op. And he asked Mullen "why specifically was that so objectionable?" Specifically, Mullen said moving members of the 82nd Airborne - a 'ready' brigade, deployable on very short notice - one question was whether it was even necessary to bring them to DC. 

He also talked about his own experience, back in 1968 when Martin Luther King Jr was assassinated, and Bobby Kennedy being killed the night before Mullen graduated from Annapolis. And he sounded a whole lot like Gen. Dempsey here.

And I see this reemerging and from a war, quite frankly, where the United States military lost the respect and the trust of the American people, we've regained that, and in very short order should we get into conflict in our own streets, there's a very significant chance we could lose that trust that it's taken us 50-plus years to restore. 

That's what's in play right now, and we really don't need that kind of force, the American military to turn on the American people, particularly when they are -- they are executing their right to protest, you know, that is emblazoned in the Constitution of the United States.

On whether Esper and General Milley should step down, since they disagree with their Commander in Chief, Mullen said that "stepping down from a position like that is really a personal decision," and while he doesn't know Esper that well, he does know Milley well, and said

I know Mark is working hard to represent the United States military in every single way. I know he has pushed back on the president with some of the federalization, if you will, of this mission, and I think he will work hard to do his duty every single day.

I think he's in a uniquely difficult position. That job is tough no matter when you're there, but he's in a uniquely difficult position because of this president.

Moving to sort of a two-question speed round, Wallace noted that the military is "one of the great institutions in this country" in terms of how it handed racial issues, and wondered if there are lessons we can take that "are applicable to our nation's neighborhoods." Mullen's answer agreed that the military has "been actually very, very good at making an awful lot of progress." But, he added,  

That said, I've heard from minority members of the military right now who are in despair and in anguish and appreciated my comments, because it gives them some hope that leadership may be more courageous. So there is a lot to learn.

And yet we are not perfect and the military, probably the single biggest thing we lack are black leaders at the four-star level, and we should do much more about that. 

The last question was about Mullen's "tough things to say about president Trump," notably that

He laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest. I am less confident in the soundness of the orders they will be given by this commander in chief. This is not the time for stunts. This is the time for leadership.

Referencing talk from 2016 that Mullen might join Hillary Clinton, or that this year he might have run on a ticket with businessman Howard Schultz, Wallace suggested that "perhaps the president will call you a Trump hater" and asked "how do you plead, sir?" 

My -- my goal in both expressing myself recently and -- I was not involved in any of those discussions in 2016, as -- as you just described. My goal is to support what we need for the country. 

This is a moment, as I said, of moral clarity. I think it's very clear in the future whether we want to unify the country in a political division -- in the political division that has existed now for years, or whether we want to continue to divide the country. That is a choice that the American people have in front of them in the very near future.

So, it would seem, he pleads for America, and for the American people, to examine the choice they have, just like Colin Powell said we had to do.

Your mission, your way to earn your extra credit, is to consider what these leaders have said. Learn about them, their positions, the places from which they base their comments and decisions. And then think about the point - holding our leaders accountable - and let that be the driving force behind how you vote this fall.

I don't tell people how to vote - that's not my place - but I do require you to participate if you expect to earn a passing grade.

See you around the virtual campus.