On the expansion of NATO, with Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance, Gates gives Vladimir Putin a lot of credit.
...it's an amazing thing he's done because he's -- he's gotten Sweden to abandon 200 years of neutrality... one of his many huge miscalculations in invading Ukraine is he has dramatically changed the geostrategic posture of western Europe...
Speaking of the Ukraine war and 'winning,' he said
If winning means taking over the country and absorbing it into Russia, the whole country, I think that's very unlikely at this point... in terms of pushing on to Odessa or trying to bring a change of government in Kyiv or absorb Ukraine, I think if that's winning, I don't see that he can win.
Brennan asked about Putin resorting to tactical nukes; Gates said the chance is "low, but not zero." Without any military purpose - "no large masses of Ukrainian forces that would be taken out," the only purpose would be
to try and break the will of the Ukrainian people. And I think that moment has come and gone. I don't think that there's anything at this point that will break the will of the Ukrainian people.
Not only that, but according to Gates, in that neck of the woods, the winds "tend to blow from the west..." You get the drift of that, right? Sorry, I couldn't resist.
Gates says China can't make up for all the economic losses Russia is facing; he also thinks Xi Jinping will realize that he may have "totally underestimated the West," including America's leadership, Europe's coming together, and the power of the shared sanctions. And, he may have to take a hard look at his own military, given how things have gone for Putin, and ask himself if his military's as good as his people say it is.
Brennan asked him about "polarization" in our country, which Gates has said was our "biggest threat." He hasn't seen a whole lot of improvement, although "there is one glimmer of hope," thanks to Xi and Putin - and it extends beyond the situation in Ukraine.
They've actually brought Republicans and Democrats together on Capitol Hill, and with the administration.... so maybe that's a foundation. Maybe there's a way to build on that. And, who knows, if you begin to get it in national security policy, maybe you can get it in some other places.
Next, let's head to the right and into the Fox News Sunday classroom, where Martha MacCallum chatted with Brian Deese, National Economic Council director. He's not a fan of the 'r' word, as MacCallum called it, but he sure is a fan of words.
While there are absolutely risks with inflation front -- first and foremost, this is what's most important, the United States is better positioned than any other major economy to bring inflation down and address these challenges without giving up all of the economic gains we've made, and that's because of the strength of our recovery. We have the strongest job market in modern history. Americans are getting back to work in jobs with higher pay. And that's meant that Americans can increase their savings, pay down their debt. Businesses are investing. Entrepreneurs are creating new businesses at record rates. And manufacturing is coming back to the United States at record rates as well...
MacCallum interjected, saying "I know that 'recession' is a technical term -- but you know... whether or not we hit that technical benchmark, Americans feel like they are in a recession... So, I'm asking for your opinion, as the economic advisor at the White House, should people be prepared in the United States that we are or will be in several months heading into a recession?"
Blah blah blah, "people should also take confidence that we are better positioned than any other country to navigate through this and keep our recovery going." blah blah blah 'What we need to do now --"
And again, MacCallum tried to pin him down. "You know, so I'm just asking, what -- what do you recommend to them in terms of specifics and what they can do to try to whether this a little bit easier as we go through what you're calling a transition?"
Blah blah blah "these prices create real hardship and they also create uncertainty. We understand that" blah blah blah "top economic priority." We can do this, he said,
First, we need to give the Federal Reserve the independence to do what it does. It has the tools to combat inflation. Second, we need to reduce costs and make things more affordable for families during this period. So, steps that we can take to reduce the cost of the Internet bills that families pay, or the prescription drug prices that they pay a really important right now. And, third, we need to bring down the federal deficit. Because of the president's policies, we've made a lot of progress on that front, the deficit down $1.5 trillion already this year. But we need to make more progress on that as well. That will help reduce price pressures in the economy.
Blah blah blah "we can navigate through to more stable growth that will generate better outcomes for families" blah blah blah "we're on the way. We've got to focus on inflation, and that's what this president is doing."
There was more, but you get the drift. High thump factor - lots of words - but I'm not sure if there was anything in it that mattered. He also talked with Dana Bash in the State of the Union classroom; perhaps there's something valuable in that interview.
Finally, Martha Raddatz talked with former Joint Chiefs chair Adm. Mike Mullen in the This Week with George Stephanopoulos classroom. Like Gates, he was moved by requests from Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
What strikes me... is how deeply neutral they had been for decades and decades and how concerned they obviously are with this threat that has been generated by Putin. And so, I’m encouraged by that. I’m encouraged by the unity of NATO. Almost every European I’ve spoken to considers the threat in Europe now existential to them and I think that speaks to the -- the move on the part of both Sweden and Finland. And I'm -- I'm encouraged by that. I don't think that it will cause, you know, a nuclear action on the part of Putin at this particular point.
He believes Putin originally wanted "to take Kyiv, overturn the government, put a puppet in as a leader," but now "he is going to do everything he possibly can to lose as little in the east as possible." Given that President Zelenskyy also wants that territory,
I think we're in for a long one. It's going to be bloody. It's going to be visible. It's going to be what war is. I think we'll see Putin continue to devastate the infrastructure with respect to how he approaches it, the long-range weapons. I think what we've done to supply them has been extraordinary, quite frankly, and we need to continue to do that.
He's "encouraged" that communication channels between high-ranking Americans (Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin) and their Russian counterparts have reopened. As to what the re-opened communications mean? He said it's hard to know, but it's a "big step... and hopefully" it's a start towards getting "some diplomatic outcome..."
All wars have to end. We need to be thinking more and more about what does that mean, what's on -- both sides, what is -- what's OK so that this is contained as opposed to exploding into a massive Holocaust for not just for the region but for the world.
Moving to North Korean, Mullen called it "deja vu all over again, from his father, and his grandfather, as well as Kim Jong-un himself." There's "no easy answer here," and there's no solution without Beijing.
And our relationship with China is -- is worsening, so that makes it -- solving this more difficult. I'm encouraged by the president's trip. I'm encouraged by the time he spent in South Korea and I know he just arrived in Japan. And I'm encouraged ... that they're working together, and that trilateral peace - Japan, South Korea, and the US - working together is really critical.
He said that Biden's meeting with the other three 'quad' countries - Australia, Japan, and India - is "fully critical to contain what will be a real challenge in North Korea" and its development of nukes.
Finally, because everyone in the classrooms was asked about baby formula, regardless of their role, Raddatz brought it up. I like the way he handled the question, championing the accomplishments of the US military.
..., I'm so encouraged by what our troops have been able to do. So, a C-17 that could fly howitzers, you know, into Germany to support Ukraine, turns around and -- and flies 71,000 pounds of baby formula back to the US. In two days. In two days, land in Indiana.
Good on them.
See you around campus.
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