Sunday School 5/22/22

Let's dive in to your Sunday School lessons, starting with Margaret Brennan and former Dubya and Obama Defense Secretary Robert Gates in the Face the Nation classroom.

On the expansion of NATO, with Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance, Gates gives Vladimir Putin a lot of credit.

...it's an amazing thing he's done because he's -- he's gotten Sweden to abandon 200 years of neutrality... one of his many huge miscalculations in invading Ukraine is he has dramatically changed the geostrategic posture of western Europe... 

Speaking of the Ukraine war and 'winning,' he said 

If winning means taking over the country and absorbing it into Russia, the whole country, I think that's very unlikely at this point... in terms of pushing on to Odessa or trying to bring a change of government in Kyiv or absorb Ukraine, I think if that's winning, I don't see that he can win. 

Brennan asked about Putin resorting to tactical nukes; Gates said the chance is "low, but not zero." Without any military purpose - "no large masses of Ukrainian forces that would be taken out," the only purpose would be 

to try and break the will of the Ukrainian people. And I think that moment has come and gone. I don't think that there's anything at this point that will break the will of the Ukrainian people.

Not only that, but according to Gates, in that neck of the woods, the winds "tend to blow from the west..." You get the drift of that, right? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Gates says China can't make up for all the economic losses Russia is facing; he also thinks Xi Jinping will realize that he may have "totally underestimated the West," including America's leadership, Europe's coming together, and the power of the shared sanctions. And, he may have to take a hard look at his own military, given how things have gone for Putin, and ask himself if his military's as good as his people say it is. 

Brennan asked him about "polarization" in our country, which Gates has said was our "biggest threat." He hasn't seen a whole lot of improvement, although "there is one glimmer of hope," thanks to Xi and Putin - and it extends beyond the situation in Ukraine.

They've actually brought Republicans and Democrats together on Capitol Hill, and with the administration.... so maybe that's a foundation. Maybe there's a way to build on that. And, who knows, if you begin to get it in national security policy, maybe you can get it in some other places.

Next, let's head to the right and into the Fox News Sunday classroom, where Martha MacCallum chatted with Brian Deese, National Economic Council director. He's not a fan of the 'r' word, as MacCallum called it, but he sure is a fan of words.

While there are absolutely risks with inflation front -- first and foremost, this is what's most important, the United States is better positioned than any other major economy to bring inflation down and address these challenges without giving up all of the economic gains we've made, and that's because of the strength of our recovery. We have the strongest job market in modern history. Americans are getting back to work in jobs with higher pay. And that's meant that Americans can increase their savings, pay down their debt. Businesses are investing. Entrepreneurs are creating new businesses at record rates. And manufacturing is coming back to the United States at record rates as well...

MacCallum interjected, saying "I know that 'recession' is a technical term -- but you know... whether or not we hit that technical benchmark, Americans feel like they are in a recession... So, I'm asking for your opinion, as the economic advisor at the White House, should people be prepared in the United States that we are or will be in several months heading into a recession?"

Blah blah blah, "people should also take confidence that we are better positioned than any other country to navigate through this and keep our recovery going." blah blah blah 'What we need to do now --" 

And again, MacCallum tried to pin him down. "You know, so I'm just asking, what -- what do you recommend to them in terms of specifics and what they can do to try to whether this a little bit easier as we go through what you're calling a transition?"

Blah blah blah "these prices create real hardship and they also create uncertainty. We understand that" blah blah blah "top economic priority." We can do this, he said, 

First, we need to give the Federal Reserve the independence to do what it does. It has the tools to combat inflation. Second, we need to reduce costs and make things more affordable for families during this period. So, steps that we can take to reduce the cost of the Internet bills that families pay, or the prescription drug prices that they pay a really important right now. And, third, we need to bring down the federal deficit. Because of the president's policies, we've made a lot of progress on that front, the deficit down $1.5 trillion already this year. But we need to make more progress on that as well. That will help reduce price pressures in the economy.

Blah blah blah "we can navigate through to more stable growth that will generate better outcomes for families" blah blah blah "we're on the way. We've got to focus on inflation, and that's what this president is doing."

There was more, but you get the drift. High thump factor - lots of words - but I'm not sure if there was anything in it that mattered. He also talked with Dana Bash in the State of the Union classroom; perhaps there's something valuable in that interview.

Finally, Martha Raddatz talked with former Joint Chiefs chair Adm. Mike Mullen in the This Week with George Stephanopoulos classroom. Like Gates, he was moved by requests from Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

What strikes me... is how deeply neutral they had been for decades and decades and how concerned they obviously are with this threat that has been generated by Putin. And so, I’m encouraged by that. I’m encouraged by the unity of NATO. Almost every European I’ve spoken to considers the threat in Europe now existential to them and I think that speaks to the -- the move on the part of both Sweden and Finland. And I'm -- I'm encouraged by that. I don't think that it will cause, you know, a nuclear action on the part of Putin at this particular point.

He believes Putin originally wanted "to take Kyiv, overturn the government, put a puppet in as a leader," but now "he is going to do everything he possibly can to lose as little in the east as possible." Given that President Zelenskyy also wants that territory, 

I think we're in for a long one. It's going to be bloody. It's going to be visible. It's going to be what war is. I think we'll see Putin continue to devastate the infrastructure with respect to how he approaches it, the long-range weapons. I think what we've done to supply them has been extraordinary, quite frankly, and we need to continue to do that.

He's "encouraged" that communication channels between high-ranking Americans (Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin) and their Russian counterparts have reopened. As to what the re-opened communications mean? He said it's hard to know, but it's a "big step... and hopefully" it's a start towards getting "some diplomatic outcome..."

All wars have to end. We need to be thinking more and more about what does that mean, what's on -- both sides, what is -- what's OK so that this is contained as opposed to exploding into a massive Holocaust for not just for the region but for the world.

Moving to North Korean, Mullen called it "deja vu all over again, from his father, and his grandfather, as well as Kim Jong-un himself." There's "no easy answer here," and there's no solution without Beijing.

And our relationship with China is -- is worsening, so that makes it -- solving this more difficult. I'm encouraged by the president's trip. I'm encouraged by the time he spent in South Korea and I know he just arrived in Japan. And I'm encouraged ... that they're working together, and that trilateral peace - Japan, South Korea, and the US - working together is really critical.

He said that Biden's meeting with the other three 'quad' countries - Australia, Japan, and India - is "fully critical to contain what will be a real challenge in North Korea" and its development of nukes.

Finally, because everyone in the classrooms was asked about baby formula, regardless of their role, Raddatz brought it up. I like the way he handled the question, championing the accomplishments of the US military.

..., I'm so encouraged by what our troops have been able to do. So, a C-17 that could fly howitzers, you know, into Germany to support Ukraine, turns around and -- and flies 71,000 pounds of baby formula back to the US. In two days. In two days, land in Indiana. 

Good on them. 

See you around campus.

Sunday School 1/17/21: Extra Credit

For your Extra Credit today, I spent some time in the Fox News Sunday classroom, where Chris Wallace chatted with the Biden administration's top economic advisor Brian Deese, who'll be the director of the National Economic Council starting this week. 

Wallace wondered if they really need $1.9T in COVID relief, and Deese made the case for it: 30M Americans without enough food; a negative jobs report in December; dealing with the pandemic; getting schools open and parents back to work... It all adds up to "an acute economic crisis and human crisis" that require "decisive action."

Wallace outlined a number of criticisms of the bill, including not targeting direct financial aid to people who need it; $20B for public transportation; $9B for cybersecurity; raising the minimum wage to $15. He asked, "whether those last items, Brian, are a good policy idea or not, are – can you really say that they are part of emergency COVID relief?"

Deese explained how they all fit. The cybersecurity stuff? Well, we just had a major hack, and not only that, but much of what's getting done now is getting done on line because of COVID, so those resources are needed. And, all across the country, in both red and blue states, transit systems are in trouble, and the point of giving relief now is to prevent service reductions and support once we start climbing back out of the pandemic crisis. And the $15 per hour is a "concrete and direct way" to support the front-line workers, who have been providing the rest of us services throughout the pandemic.

Next, Wallace questioned whether they'd be able to get 60 votes in the Senate and avoid a filibuster, and pointed out the reticence of the Rs to go over $1T for COVID relief when they had control. Deese mentioned an analysis by Moody's suggesting that if Biden's plan was acted on quickly, it could lead to 7.5 million jobs just this year. Not only that, but there was good bipartisan support for $2K in stimulus. Expanding the child tax credit, vaccination efforts, efforts on education -- all of that, too, has bipartisan support with governors and mayors.

I think there's a lot of -- there's a lot of support for taking these actions. So we -- we're -- we see every reason why Congress should move out and should move out in a bipartisan way.

And if the Rs were to block it, to filibuster the bill, would Biden ask the Senate to get rid of the filibuster?  Deese pointed to recent skepticism, about Biden being able to win by calling for unity and working together, or that Congress could pass a bipartisan COVID bill in December. Both of those things happened, 

So let's see where we can get here. There is a lot of, again, a lot of elements of this plan that have support across the board, both in Washington and in state capitals and around the country. But we need to act. We need to act quickly. And that's what the economy is telling us. That's what the experts are telling us. And so that's our priority.

So, I guess that means one thing that's off the table is talking about ending the filibuster... 

Moving on to the upcoming-at-some-point second impeachment trial, and the hope that it could be scheduled to have the Senate do necessary work part of the day - including confirmations of Biden's cabinet - and the trial part of the day, Wallace wondered what happens if they can't get that kind of deal? Would Biden try to delay the trial until some of his stuff moves? Deese's answer?

So that's going to be our focus is trying to get an agreement and a structure that will allow that to happen. And we're able to move out on these multiple fronts and -- and make progress on these multiple priorities.

Final two questions. First, Wallace wondered if "raising taxes and increasing regulations" are the right things to do to get back the pre-pandemic economy.

Deese's answer? He pointed again to the Biden win, and suggested that wouldn't have happened if the economy was working for everyone. 

One of the things we've learned in crises is that acting decisively will put us on a path to have a stronger economic recovery coming out of this. So that's going to be our -- our focus, our immediate focus. Let's get decisive action. Let's put the economy on a stronger trajectory. That will be the best thing for American people, American workers.

And the last question was about Deese himself, not about Biden. Wallace mentioned the pushback from the left wing of the Dems because Deese was "too conservative" when he worked in the Obama administration, even going so far to call for reduced spending - the horror!  So, Wallace wondered, were the lefties wrong, or has Deese had a change of heart?

Well, look, the -- the -- the president-elect has a clear vision for making this economy work for working Americans again. That's a vision that I share and that we're going to wake up every day trying to move forward. It involves addressing some of the significant structural inequities in our economy that have left out too many Americans, including black and brown Americans around this country who have not had a fair shot, and that's going to be our focus. It's going to be my focus. That's been my animating focus across the last decade or more in public life and private life and I think that that's going to be what the president-elect expects of us and certainly that's what I and the team will carry forward.

Was that a teeny little filibuster there?

See you around campus.