As all pundits do, Bash quoted former Obama advisor Larry Summers on the topic of inflation. Summers has said "nobody can suppose that inflation is under control."
Bernstein first pointed out Biden "said repeatedly after the report came out that inflation is unacceptably high." On the out-of-date comment, he said that since the June report was issued, gas is down "about 50 cents a gallon...that's about the fasted decline in about a decade." It's still too high, but might give some folks some "breathing room."
Bash said a lot of Dems "don't agree that message is working." It took a minute to figure out what message she was referring to, but she got there by playing a clip of her asking Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) if she'd tell her constituents "the data is out of date," and of course Baldwin said no, but she also said
It's great news that, in the last month, gas prices have gone down by about 40 cents per gallon. That's really not the break people are looking for.
It seems, then, that Biden and Baldwin are saying the same thing: gas prices, one of the biggest contributors to inflation, have dropped noticeably, but it's not enough. Bernstein then explained to Bash what everyone seems uninterested in talking about:
...if we're going to talk about the damage that these high energy prices are having on family budgets, I think we have to talk about the benefits for when those prices come down a little.
And, he also had to explain,
...the president is unequivocal by not calling 'mission accomplished' on any of this. We're talking about a decline that's completely insufficient when it comes to delivering the relief to family budgets that they need. So, that's why he continues to push on every aspect he can of this issue in terms of increasing the supply of global energy to help mitigate that price increase.
And then, a lightbulb: Bash said, "And you're right. The prices have come down, which is a good thing. It's better than them going the other way." BINGO!
Then, she talked about predictions of where the price of oil may go in the future - that it could soar 50% or more after European sanctions against Russian gas are implemented.
Bernstein started by saying he should have mentioned that while the price of gas is down "about 8-9%, the oil price is down about 20%."
So, when we talk about the president doing all he can to provide relief at the pump, one of the things that he's doing is trying to nudge these companies to pass some of those savings along to consumers. You know, in the first quarter of this year, some of the biggest oil companies had a net profit of $35 billion. Now, these are companies we helped, to the tune of billions of dollars, during the pandemic...
Bash interrupted with "but will prices go back up?" Bernstein continued with his answer.
during the pandemic downturn. They ought to share some of that profitability with the American people right now, especially as we're supporting Ukraine's efforts in their war against Russia.
As to higher prices, he said "nobody can see reliably" a couple of quarters down the road, as there's too much volatility. He thinks prices will continue to go down this month, though.
Again, Dana, look, this is minutia. We have so much more work to do. And when it comes to prescription drugs and health care premiums, as you said in your introduction, Democrats are there. And that is essential.
But wait - there's more to talk about on oil, Bash said. And by 'oil' she meant the fist-bump picture of Biden and MSB, the Saudi Crown Prince. And the question about oil was, "Why is he fist-bumping a murderer?"
Bernstein's answer - "Well, Dana, you're talking to an economic policy adviser. And I'm much more able to give you fulsome readouts on meetings, not greetings..." Bash said "OK. So, is there a deliverable" out of the meeting?
Bernstein pointed her to Biden's Washington Post op-ed about the meeting, and he also said that the Middle East is a critical region of the world, and the US needs to be engaged, and that we're better off economically if there's a more stable Middle East. He also noted the Saudis said they'd increase their oil production capacity. The administration has also been pressuring OPEC to do more, and some OPEC members have "talked about doing precisely that for July and August."
Moving to Biden's domestic agenda and Sen. Joe Manchin's hindrance of it, Bash noted Biden has urged the Senate to "pass the scaled-down plan" which doesn't include climate change. The question for Bernstein: Is Biden frustrated with his former colleague? Seems that's a yes.
At the same time, Biden's "very compelled to get Congress to work with him on his climate agenda." And, he continued, if he can't get "a legislative path to clean energy, the urgency of the problem is so significant..." that he'll continue using Executive Orders to get things done.
But the urgency of the issue, Dana, is, I think -- it is beyond me how anyone could miss it, over $100 billion per year of cost to our economy based on floods, wildfires, droughts. Look at the geopolitical pressures from this, a Russian petrocrat... who's prosecuting a war based on weaponizing fossil fuels. So, there is a great rationale to undertake what this president will do. And he will continue to press.
In my opinion, Bernstein did much better than Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council. Maybe it's his familiarity with Biden, I don't know. At least he answered what he was asked, which is more than many classroom guests think about doing.
My question for you, students, is this: what will the Dems do now?
a. Try and pass a bill before the August recess that extends the Obamacare subsidies* and allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. Get it done, and you've got a win. If the Rs block it, Dems have a ready-made campaign message: Not only are the Rs taking away your rights to reproductive health care, but they're also forcing a health care premium increase on your Obamacare plan. And, they refuse to allow Medicare to negotiate savings on your prescriptions.
b. Don't even try to get anything done before the August recess, hope inflation goes down, and then work with Manchin to get a bill done in September, before the midterms.
c. Do nothing, except of course go all-in on bashing Manchin in the press at every opportunity.
d. Do something else (describe it with a comment.)
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