Sunday School 7/17/22: Extra Credit

For Sunday School, we were in the State of the Union classroom. Let's go back there for Extra Credit, and drop in on Dana Bash and her chat with Jared Bernstein. He's a long-time economic adviser to President Biden.

As all pundits do, Bash quoted former Obama advisor Larry Summers on the topic of inflation. Summers has said "nobody can suppose that inflation is under control." 

Bernstein first pointed out Biden "said repeatedly after the report came out that inflation is unacceptably high." On the out-of-date comment, he said that since the June report was issued, gas is down "about 50 cents a gallon...that's about the fasted decline in about a decade." It's still too high, but might give some folks some "breathing room." 

Bash said a lot of Dems "don't agree that message is working." It took a minute to figure out what message she was referring to, but she got there by playing a clip of her asking Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) if she'd tell her constituents "the data is out of date," and of course Baldwin said no, but she also said

It's great news that, in the last month, gas prices have gone down by about 40 cents per gallon. That's really not the break people are looking for.

It seems, then, that Biden and Baldwin are saying the same thing: gas prices, one of the biggest contributors to inflation, have dropped noticeably, but it's not enough. Bernstein then explained to Bash what everyone seems uninterested in talking about:

...if we're going to talk about the damage that these high energy prices are having on family budgets, I think we have to talk about the benefits for when those prices come down a little.

And, he also had to explain, 

...the president is unequivocal by not calling 'mission accomplished' on any of this. We're talking about a decline that's completely insufficient when it comes to delivering the relief to family budgets that they need. So, that's why he continues to push on every aspect he can of this issue in terms of increasing the supply of global energy to help mitigate that price increase.

And then, a lightbulb: Bash said, "And you're right. The prices have come down, which is a good thing. It's better than them going the other way." BINGO! 

Then, she talked about predictions of where the price of oil may go in the future - that it could soar 50% or more after European sanctions against Russian gas are implemented. 

Bernstein started by saying he should have mentioned that while the price of gas is down "about 8-9%, the oil price is down about 20%."

So, when we talk about the president doing all he can to provide relief at the pump, one of the things that he's doing is trying to nudge these companies to pass some of those savings along to consumers. You know, in the first quarter of this year, some of the biggest oil companies had a net profit of $35 billion. Now, these are companies we helped, to the tune of billions of dollars, during the pandemic...

Bash interrupted with "but will prices go back up?" Bernstein continued with his answer.

during the pandemic downturn. They ought to share some of that profitability with the American people right now, especially as we're supporting Ukraine's efforts in their war against Russia.

As to higher prices, he said "nobody can see reliably" a couple of quarters down the road, as there's too much volatility. He thinks prices will continue to go down this month, though.

Again, Dana, look, this is minutia. We have so much more work to do. And when it comes to prescription drugs and health care premiums, as you said in your introduction, Democrats are there. And that is essential.

But wait - there's more to talk about on oil, Bash said. And by 'oil' she meant the fist-bump picture of Biden and MSB, the Saudi Crown Prince. And the question about oil was, "Why is he fist-bumping a murderer?"

Bernstein's answer - "Well, Dana, you're talking to an economic policy adviser. And I'm much more able to give you fulsome readouts on meetings, not greetings..." Bash said "OK. So, is there a deliverable" out of the meeting? 

Bernstein pointed her to Biden's Washington Post op-ed about the meeting, and he also said that the Middle East is a critical region of the world, and the US needs to be engaged, and that we're better off economically if there's a more stable Middle East. He also noted the Saudis said they'd increase their oil production capacity. The administration has also been pressuring OPEC to do more, and some OPEC members have "talked about doing precisely that for July and August."

Moving to Biden's domestic agenda and Sen. Joe Manchin's hindrance of it, Bash noted Biden has urged the Senate to "pass the scaled-down plan" which doesn't include climate change. The question for Bernstein: Is Biden frustrated with his former colleague?  Seems that's a yes. 

At the same time, Biden's "very compelled to get Congress to work with him on his climate agenda." And, he continued, if he can't get "a legislative path to clean energy, the urgency of the problem is so significant..." that he'll continue using Executive Orders to get things done.

But the urgency of the issue, Dana, is, I think -- it is beyond me how anyone could miss it, over $100 billion per year of cost to our economy based on floods, wildfires, droughts. Look at the geopolitical pressures from this, a Russian petrocrat... who's prosecuting a war based on weaponizing fossil fuels. So, there is a great rationale to undertake what this president will do. And he will continue to press.

In my opinion, Bernstein did much better than Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council. Maybe it's his familiarity with Biden, I don't know. At least he answered what he was asked, which is more than many classroom guests think about doing.

My question for you, students, is this: what will the Dems do now?

a. Try and pass a bill before the August recess that extends the Obamacare subsidies* and allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. Get it done, and you've got a win. If the Rs block it, Dems have a ready-made campaign message: Not only are the Rs taking away your rights to reproductive health care, but they're also forcing a health care premium increase on your Obamacare plan. And, they refuse to allow Medicare to negotiate savings on your prescriptions.

b. Don't even try to get anything done before the August recess, hope inflation goes down, and then work with Manchin to get a bill done in September, before the midterms. 

c. Do nothing, except of course go all-in on bashing Manchin in the press at every opportunity. 

d. Do something else (describe it with a comment.)

See you around campus.

*Learn more about the Obamacare subsidies here. 

Wondering on Wednesday (v163)

Taking a look at the president's State of the Union - let the wondering begin.

Here's what he said, according to the written transcript, to open his speech (there were some ad libs throughout the night):

As we begin a new Congress, I stand here ready to work with you to achieve historic breakthroughs for all Americans. Millions of our fellow citizens are watching us now, gathered in this great chamber, hoping that we will govern not as TWO PARTIES but as ONE NATION.  The agenda I will lay out this evening is not a Republican Agenda or a Democrat Agenda. It is the Agenda of the American People.

He also noted

There is a new opportunity in American politics, if only we have the courage to seize it. Victory is not winning for our party. Victory is winning for our COUNTRY.

And, there was this

But we must reject the politics of revenge, resistance and retribution - and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise and the common good. Together, we can break decades of political stalemate. We can bridge old divisions, heal old wounds, build new coalitions, forge new solutions and unlock the extraordinary promise of America's future.

The decision is ours to make. We must choose between greatness or gridlock, results or resistance, vision or vengeance, incredible progress of pointless destruction...

Members of Congress: the State of our Union is Strong.

Let's look at what he put on the table to entice people to join him.

Some, All, or None of the Above

Pretend, for the sake of argument that this was the school shooting that is the one that changes everything. Columbine didn't, and Sandy Hook didn't. So pretend this is the one.

Pretend, for the sake of argument,  that we actually are inspired and want to make changes, across a wide spectrum, to try and make a difference.

Pretend, for the sake of argument, that your elected representatives at the school, local, state and national level are motivated to listen to you and do whatever it is you suggest to keep your children safe.

Pretend, for the sake of argument, that you are in control. I know, I know - that's a huge bit of pretending, I get it -- but just pretend.

Here's your list of options, based on what I've seen on various news and social media platforms. Know that none of these will work, because if a person really wants to commit mayhem, they'll find a way - that's what we're told, anyway, when some suggests changing gun laws. 

Know that  individually,  these might have no impact, but that collectively, they might make a difference --and choose as many as you think we should try.

1. Ban large-capacity magazines, clips, etc. so that a person would have to load their gun more often, making it take longer for them to commit mass mayhem and giving people more time to, hopefully, escape.

2. Ban new sales of the 'mass-shooting' rifle -- the AR-15 and similar weapons, and implement a buy-back program to get as many of them off the street as possible.

3. Ban sales of bump-stocks and similar items that make it easier to kill more people in a short period of time.

4. Ban sales of guns to anyone who is not old enough to purchase alcohol.

5. Ensure that the military is reporting all less-than-honorable discharges to the national background check system, and do not allow them to purchase any kind of gun, and that this reporting is timely - as in, immediately upon discharge. And fire anyone in the military hierarchy who failed to ensure this reporting occurred as required.

6. Close the 'boyfriend' loophole, which allows a person who commits violence against a partner to whom they are not married to purchase a gun, and treat these people the same as those who abuse their spouse.

7. Establish a ten-day waiting period on the purchase of all guns - handguns, medium guns, long guns, whatever - to bring consistency to the process, and to allow sufficient time for the background check process to occur.

8. Pay gun manufacturers not to make guns, just like we pay farmers not to grow crops.

9. Tax packages of ammunition the same way we tax packages of cigarettes. Add a user fee on the sale of every gun. Use this money as startup cash to pay for whatever needs to be paid for (see #11 and #12, for starters).

10. Close all background check loopholes. Private sales, gun shows - whatever the gaps, close them.

11. Secure our school buildings: locks on external doors, cameras, badge readers, metal detectors, security offices and security officers - real ones, not the kind you see at many offices - at entry doors, double door entries, limited number of doors with external handles, etc.

12. Secure the classrooms: bullet-proof glass in the windows and doors; panic buttons for teachers to warn the office and local police of a threat; doors that truly lock from inside and cannot be forced open.

13. Arm teachers, if they are willing, provided that the weapons they're assigned can be secured in their classrooms so that they don't fall into the wrong hands, and that they're carefully screen and can prove proficiency with their weapons (something that is not required for purchasing one, by the way).

14. Go back to saying the Pledge of Allegiance in schools every day.

15. Re-institute school prayer.

16. Ban violent video games, television shows, lyrics, movies, poetry, fiction and non-fiction writing, and any other art forms which can project violence.

17. Enter mental health records into the background check system, regardless of the patient age, and never allow anyone who has had any mental health issues to legally purchase guns or ammunition.

18. Stop prescribing medications that can have mental health related side effects (depressions, thoughts of suicide, hyperactivity, manic behaviors and so on).

19. Ban contributions to politicians from any gun rights groups.

20. Wring our hands, offer thoughts and prayers, and as Paul Ryan said, count our blessings, whatever that means.

Have at it -- some, all, or none of the above?

If Only...Except That

If only we let God in schools, this would never happen. God is everywhere you want Him to be, just like Visa used to be, whenever you want Him to be there. He will never leave you alone, I'm told. Besides, God doesn't prevent things from happening, He makes it more bearable when things do happen, I'm told. So you can't blame God not being in schools.

If only we didn't have violent video games, this would never happen. Except that everyone who plays video games doesn't go out and shoot up schools.  It's just fantasy, millions of people are just fine who play these games, they don't have mental health problems, they just like sitting in the dark shooting things. So clearly you can't blame God not being in schools, or the video games.

If only parents acted like parents instead of like friends, this would never happen. Except that many parents do act like parents, and do make their children behave and do have rules and curfews and make their kids do their homework and go to school and go to church and not hang out at the mall playing video games, so you can't blame God not being in schools, and you can't blame video games, and you surely can't blame the parents.

If only someone would say something if they saw something, this would never happen. Except that people do say something, and in the Florida case, they did say something and the ball was dropped, they say, because this kid still did what he did.And so you can't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or the parents, or the community. 

If only this particular kind of gun was harder to get, this would never happen.  Except that there's millions of them out there, and so you can't keep them out of the hands of people who want to get one. If they can't get one legally, they'll get one illegally the way MS-13 gang members do. So you can't blame God not being in schools, or the video games, or the parents, or the community, or the easy access to a very particular gun that is used in so many mass shootings.

If only we had had better background checks, this would never happen. Except that the background check process works just fine, look at all the people who are not able to buy guns, and besides, look how hard it is to get a pistol! So clearly, we can't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the particular gun of choice for shooting up schools and such, and you can't blame the background check process.

If only people who had mental health issues got treatment, this would never happen. Except that this does happen when people are getting help for mental health issues. And at what point did we decide that everyone with dark thoughts has mental health issues? So no, you can't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the gun of choice, or background checks, or mental health. 

If only kids couldn't buy guns before they were old enough to buy a beer, this wouldn't happen. 

Because drinking, you know, that's a serious thing, and society needs to make sure you're protected from a can of Bud Light until you're mature enough to understand the consequences of yelling dilly dilly like an idiot. So you can't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the gun of choice, or the background check process, or mental health, or being able to buy guns before you can buy a beer. 

If only we didn't have half the country wandering around on medication for their mental health issues, this wouldn't happen.  Except that people need these medications to function, to be contributing members of society... pastors and parents and doctors and lawyers and teachers and the rest, and the vast majority of these medicated folks are just fine and never commit mayhem, so no -- you can't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the gun of choice, or the background check process, or mental health, or the age of majority, or prescription drugs either. 

If only people had more respect for each other, this wouldn't happen. Except that there is no law that says you have to be respectful, there's no legal definition of respect, there's open season on anyone and anything you don't like from the top all the way down (and you know what I'm talking about here, right?)  Besides, millions and millions of people who don't respect other people go about their daily lives and never commit a crime, never murder school children. So, don't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the gun of choice, or the process, or mental health, or the age of majority, or prescription drugs, or the lack of respect.

If only teachers were armed, this wouldn't happen.  Except that if teachers wanted to be cops they wouldn't be teachers. Nope - don't blame God not being in schools, or video games, or parents, or communities, or the massacre gun, or the process to keep guns out of the wrong hands, or mental health, or the age of majority, or prescription drugs, or a lack of respect, or unarmed teachers.

If only the NRA wasn't able to buy all those politicians, this wouldn't happen. Except that if  George Soros can buy politicians and unions can buy politicians and everyone else can buy politicians, the NRA has to be able to buy politicians too. So, not you can't blame God for not being in schools and you can't blame video games, or parents, or communities, or the killing gun, or the process, or mental health, or the age of majority, or prescription drugs, or the lack of respect, or unarmed teachers, or the NRA buying politicians.

If only people cared as much about their children as they did about their own rights, this wouldn't happen. Except that rights are rights, and children aren't. Or are simply, sadly, collateral damage for us having rights. Don't blame God for not being in schools. Don't blame video games. Don't blame parents. Don't blame communities. Don't blame the gun. Don't blame the process. Don't blame mental health. Don't blame the age of majority. Don't blame prescription drugs. Don't blame the lack of respect. Don't blame unarmed teachers. Don't blame the NRA.Don't blame people not caring about kids, and don't blame my rights.

If only thoughts and prayers kept us safe, this wouldn't happen.  Except that they don't and this does.