TGIF 9/30/22

Another week is winding down, and it's time for the good week/bad week accounting. Here are just a few of the folks who earned a mention.

The state of Florida had a mixes week. On the latter, the cat-4 Hurricane Ian made a mess of things, tossing boats and houses and piers around, causing massive flooding, and cutting power to millions of customers as it crossed the state. On the other hand, many people evacuated on time, and many of those who didn't rode out the storm and lived to talk about it. We'll learn more in the coming days on how deadly it was, but the initial reports were not as bad we expected. On a personal note, I'm grateful that all my friends and family in Florida are safe.

Staying in the Sunshine State, Gov. Ron DeSantis is doing his darnedest to act statesmanly, given his presidential aspirations, but his past - and votes against disaster funding for another hurricane in a far-off place (the blue states of New Jersey and New York) - are cropping up on social media. His staff said the Gov has no time for pettiness, which is a first, I think; he's a master of the petty, in fact. But when push comes to shove, or when storm surge comes to the Gulf Coast, he's willing to set that aside and work with President Biden, at least until there's talk about making fiscally responsible disaster aid demands. 

Speaking of the gaffe master, he might have exceeded our wildest imaginations at a White House hunger conference this week, when he called out for the late Rep. Jackie Walorski, who was killed in a car accident in August. Walorski was a co-chair of the Hunger Caucus, and was one of the folks who introduced the bill that led to the conference. And, of course, the pack of reporters, hungry as always for a sound-bite and air time, undertook "a series of tense exchanges" trying to get an answer as to why Biden, well, pulled a Biden. Is an answer necessary?

Supreme Court Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was formally sworn in this week, and will take her seat on the bench on Monday, at a time when 60% of us believe the Court is "out of touch" and 66% believe there should be term limits for Justices.  Those sentiments aren't indicative of KBJ, of course, but she's coming on the Court at a difficult time, with some tough cases on affirmative action and college admissions, LGBTQ rights, and election issues, among others.

Beto O'Rourke, who's running for governor of Texas, received support from family members of Uvalde school shooting victims. They traveled nearly five hours by bus to hold a press conference an hour before the only debate between O'Rourke and Gov. Greg Abbott who, in these folks minds, "had not taken enough action on gun control measures" since the shooting four months ago.

I hope you had a good week.

TGIF, everyone.

Email of the Week (v1)

I mentioned in last week's Who Loves Me, Baby? update on the Dem presidential candidate emails that I was going to switch things up a bit, and officially end the social experiment on their emails. I also promised you a recap on all of that:

• In all, I read over 1600 emails from the candidates; there were likely more than that. I'd guess that fully 80% of them included a direct ask for money, with more suggesting that money would be nice. My guess is that fewer than 10% of the emails offered a policy, a position, a reason why they person is running, and so on. 

• The most consistently hopeful? Mayor Pete and Cory Booker. The most consistently negative? Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The most consistent? Amy Klobuchar, hands down. The most mentions of Donald Trump? Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The most desperate? Julian Castro - that was no contest. 

Going forward, I will still keep an eye on the candidates, and will continue sharing the email of the week. Here's this week's winner, from Beto O'Rourke, who dropped out of the race back in November.

There’s a painting that hangs in the Capitol rotunda depicting General George Washington in front of the Continental Congress 236 years ago, resigning his commission as the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army.

The artist, John Trumbull, believed that it illustrated “one of the highest moral lessons ever given to the world.”

Why?

Because here was a man at the height of his powers, a man who had led America to a stunning defeat of the most powerful military on the planet, a man who could have made the case to be commander for life, or even King, a case that would have resonated with many in a young, unstable country still not free from the military threat of Great Britain or foreign interference in our affairs… who nonetheless voluntarily resigned his commission and gave up his power.

He did it for the greater good of this nascent democracy and in support of the idea that no man is above the law or the will of the people as expressed through their elected representatives.

He knew that if this great experiment, this profound idea of America, was going to work, then at this decisive moment he must set the example.

And though he failed abjectly in other defining moral tests — he owned enslaved people, failed to work for the abolition of slavery, and in so doing set a perverse example and standard that would require a civil war to overcome — this precedent that personal ambition would be subjugated to the interests of the republic allowed us to inherit a government, as John Adams described it, “of laws, not of men.”

This precedent also helped to inspire a Constitution that provides protection against those who would put their own interests ahead of the country’s, including provision for impeachment of the commander-in-chief should they abuse the power of their office.

The idea of self-government and the Constitution that guarantees it were fought for and defended by succeeding generations of Americans. The service members who lost their lives in the Civil War, and in the World Wars that followed, paid the ultimate price to see this idea through. So did the civil rights marchers, the freedom riders, the men and women and even children who forced this country to move closer to realizing it for everyone by adopting the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act in 1964 and 1965.

We have inherited the service and sacrifice of those who came before us. What we choose to do with this inheritance will define us for future generations and will be the example we pass on to our children and grandchildren.

Which brings us to this moment and the choice we have before us.

In Case You Missed It (v9)

Here's a recap of this week's posts, in case you were too busy to read 'em when they came out.

Our Sunday School classroom visit brought us another chat with Minnesota's Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who's running to be the Democratic presidential nominee. She spoke with Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation. One of the topics? Whether or not the whistleblower should talk with the impeachment investigators. She could go either way on that, but noted

That Ambassador Taylor testimony was devastating. It showed that this was not just one phone call, that this had been a plan for a long time, for the president to put the interests of America behind his own personal interests to get dirt on an opponent. It's a pattern. He does it for his business. He does it for his partisan interests. He does it every single day.

You will deserve Extra Credit for this one.  Because the president delivered some 8,000 words on the raid that led to the suicide of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, he got himself his own post. It would have been impossible for me to have commented on the the entire thing; it was hard enough to pull together this loose conglomeration of his truly bizarre comments, like this one about the Kurds.

They’re going to have to make their own decision. The Kurds have worked along incredibly with us, but in all fairness, it was much easier dealing with the Kurds after they went through three days of fighting, because that was a brutal three days... 

That's right:  the American president just bald-faced mocked the Kurds. You literally can't make this stuff up, nor can you make up the rest of his comments.

Our first Update of the week was a look at the outside income limits on New York's legislators, which have been quashed by the courts. Good government groups are looking for the Leg and the governor to try again in January. They reminded Albany leaders of  "too many instances of corruptions and conflicts of interest" stemming from legislators seeking personal gain related to their other jobs or jobs held by family members.

This is why the Commission concluded that restricting outside income “will eliminate both the perception of and any actual conflicts of interest” and “eliminates the possibility for the public to question whether the citizens of this State are being properly served.” 

Wondering on Wednesday took a look at issues that the NRA is facing, with excerpts from documents in a lawsuit the group is fighting with its former ad agency, and what that might mean for efforts to improve gun safety laws.

...with the messy lawsuits, and if things in this August Mother Jones article are still true, and we continue to see polling showing  the majority of Americans  - including Republicans - favor universal background checks, red flag laws, and more, I'm wondering how long politicians will continue to fear the NRA at election time, and if they stop being afraid, will we be able to get these very popular measures passed and signed into law?

Thursday's update was our weekly feature on the Democratic presidential candidates and their emails. Here's just a small part of a thing I made up, using (bolded) subject lines from one candidate's emails. 

I'm so vulnerably asking, I really am vulnerably asking.  It can't end like this. I don't say this lightly, but we could be on the verge of a TRAGIC mistake!!! This could be the end. It might be time to pack up. go home. it's dire.

Surprisingly, the candidate that sent me those emails is NOT the one who just dropped out of the race.

In Friday's Poll Watch, I took a look at new data from a Washington Post/ABC News poll, showing (among other things) that

49% of us (44% strongly) believe Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 47% (37% strongly) think he shouldn't. This is reflective of results from an October WaPo/Schar School poll, where the same percentage believed he should be impeached and removed. For comparison, only 33% thought Bill Clinton should suffer the same fate. 

And, earlier today, we had a Quick Take on the candidate that did drop out of the Democratic race -- Beto O'Rourke.

He had issues getting traction in the 'moderate' lane of the race, running along with Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar in that space. Biden came in with an advantage there, and both Mayor Pete and Klobuchar had done much better in the debates, significantly overshadowing O'Rourke (and in some respects, overshadowing Biden as well). And it seems, his shift to the left may hurt him going forward.

Dive in -- comment freely -- and come back for more next week!

Quick Takes (v45): Beto Drops Out

Quick Takes

I confess, I was not surprised to hear that a candidate had dropped out of the Democratic presidential race - honestly, I though the first to go would be Julian Castro, based on the escalating level of desperation week over week in his emails to supporters. So I was a little surprised to hear it was the other Texan, Beto O'Rourke, who dropped out yesterday.

He struggled to maintain momentum after he entered the race, he struggled in the polls, he struggled in fundraising, and he struggled to maintain excitement even after moving far to the left on guns. His focus on that issue, including a proposal for a mandatory buyback of assault-style guns, which are now referred to as 'weapons of war,' ignited almost equal passion from the left - some folks like it, while other candidates suggested that was a sure way to lose the election - and the right, where it was suggested that was a sure way for them to win the election.

He had issues getting traction in the 'moderate' lane of the race, running along with Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar in that space. Biden came in with an advantage there, and both Mayor Pete and Klobuchar had done much better in the debates, significantly overshadowing O'Rourke (and in some respects, overshadowing Biden as well). And it seems, his shift to the left may hurt him going forward.

For a young politician who might be mentioned as a possible candidate in future elections, his leftward turn may have also damaged his ability to run for statewide office in Texas again, as it’s still a Republican-leaning state. 

Here are some excerpts from O'Rourke's email to supporters.

Our campaign has been about seeing clearly, speaking honestly and acting decisively in the best interests of America.

Though it is difficult to accept, it is clear to me now that this campaign does not have the means to move forward successfully. My service to the country will not be as a candidate or as the nominee. Acknowledging this now is in the best interests of those in the campaign; it is in the best interests of this party as we seek to unify around a nominee; and it is in the best interests of the country. 

I decided to run for President because I believed that I could help bring a divided country together in common cause to confront the greatest set of challenges we’ve ever faced. I also knew that the most fundamental of them is fear — the fear that Donald Trump wants us to feel about one another; the very real fear that too many in this country live under; and the fear we sometimes feel when it comes to doing the right thing, especially when it runs counter to what is politically convenient or popular.

I knew, and I still know, that we can reject and overcome these fears and choose to instead be defined by our ambitions and our ability to achieve them.

He talked about his policies on climate change, gun safety, "institutional, systemic racism," being among the first to reject PAC, corporate, and special interest money and help from lobbyists. And,

called out Donald Trump for his white supremacy and the violence that he’s encouraged against communities that don’t look like, pray like or love like the majority in this country...

He also highlighted voting rights and immigration in his email, referring to "the most ambitious" voter registration/voting rights plan, and of "rewriting this country's immigration laws in our own image," something that didn't come across - at all - in his outreach to potential voters like me. And, he said,

And at this moment of truth for our country, we laid bare the cost and consequence of Donald Trump: the rise in hate crimes, the terror attack in El Paso, the perversion of the Constitution, the diminished standing of the United States around the world. But we also made clear the common responsibility to confront him, to hold him accountable and ensure that he does not serve another term in office. Committing ourselves to this task not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans first before we are anything else. 

And he encouraged everyone to stay in the game and not walk away. 

Though today we are suspending this campaign, let us each continue our commitment to the country in whatever capacity we can. 

Let us continue to fearlessly champion the issues and causes that brought us together... 

We will work to ensure that the Democratic nominee is successful in defeating Donald Trump in 2020. I can tell you firsthand from having the chance to know the candidates, we will be well served by any one of them, and I’m going to be proud to support whoever that nominee is. 

And proud to call them President in January 2021, because they will win.

We must support them in the race against Donald Trump and support them in their administration afterwards, do all that we can to help them heal a wounded country and bring us together in meeting the greatest set of challenges we have ever known.

I’m confident I will see you down the road, and I look forward to that day. 

Thank you for making this campaign possible, and for continuing to believe that we can turn this moment of great peril into a moment of great promise for America and the world. 

With you always, and forever grateful.

Beto

Who will be next? And how long will it take? We're likely to see additional movement once the October fundraising reports come out.

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby? (8)

Here we go again: "Emails, emails, emails!" Here's the history on this series.

This week's tally?  191 emails, up thirty from last week. Here's how it compares with last week on a candidate-by-candidate basis.

• Joe Biden - 20, down one
• Cory Booker - 17, up one
• Pete Buttigieg - 21, up eight
• Julian Castro - 31, up five
• Kamala Harris - 24, up four
• Amy Klobuchar - 14, up one
• Beto O'Rourke - 17, up four
• Bernie Sanders - 14, no change
• Elizabeth Warren - 18, up four
• Andrew Yang - 15 up four

So, let's look at the biggest movers, Buttigieg and Castro.

Mayor Pete was looking ahead, with eight emails focused on what has to happen in the 100 days until the Iowa caucuses. He also wrapped up the contest to attend Hamilton in San Francisco (3 emails), introduced new policies (his Women's Agenda and Criminal Justice Reform plans) and shared two emails comparing 2007 and 2019.  Here's the gist of them.

On a November evening, at what was then called the “Jefferson-Jackson Dinner,” Barack Obama took a stage in Des Moines, Iowa and presented Americans with a passionate appeal for a new vision that instilled hope for the future and led to a surge in support for his campaign. The crowd roared as he declared, “This is our moment.”

It was the moment that changed everything for the Obama campaign and, ultimately, for the country.

That same moment for Pete, and for America, is this Friday night.

Meanwhile, back at the struggling Castro campaign, here's what's going on - and note,  all the bolded words are Castro email subject lines, as delivered to my in box since last week's deadline. I think it's pretty clear the status of his campaign, and the heightened desperation that we're seeing in the outreach.

I'm so vulnerably asking, I really am vulnerably asking.  It can't end like this. I don't say this lightly, but we could be on the verge of a TRAGIC mistake!!! This could be the end. It might be time to pack up. go home. it's dire. I really need your help, I mean, I'm in dire need. Forgive me for being blunt - this isn't easy for me, but we are truly in dire need and as of 9AM!!! I hate to say but this could be the end, the end of my campaign. I mean, I'm floored. It would be U-N-B-E-L-I-E-V-A-B-L-E!!!!!! if I suffered a HISTORIC upset myself, instead of having someone else face an UNPRECEDENTED upset. And so, as of 12PM (!!!) I'll share this: Joaquin Castro SHAVES his head!!!?? That's how desperate things are here on our team. I hope you'll help. let's hop on the phone?

There's a clear difference in tone from the two most active campaigns, don't you think?

And now, to our email of the week: it's the Halloween message from Gory BOOker:

Real quick, then you can get back to putting the final touches on your costume

Well, we're here... The last day of October, the spookiest fundraising deadline of the year. I wanted to send you a quick update on our goal progress.

The scariest thing you’ll see today is this: We're still $75,882 short of hitting our $725,000 goal -- and we need to get there by midnight tonight if we want to stay competitive.

I know it may seem like a lot to raise in a short amount of time, but each time we’ve set a big goal, this team has risen to the challenge -- and I know this one will be no different.

Make a fun-size donation today: 

Whatever you do today, I hope it's something fun-sized.

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby? (7)

It's time for another update on the Dems (and Bernie) running for president. I have to tell you, my social experiment has been enlightening, for sure. I'm learning all kinds of stuff about the candidates, if not about their positions, and about how to ask for money, tips I'll keep in mind for my annual fundraising for my favorite charity.

This week, I got 161 emails; Julian Castro (26), Joe Biden (21), Kamala Harris (20) and Cory Booker (16) led the way. A little less frenzied? Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders (14 each) Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke and Amy Klobuchar  (13 each) and Andrew Yang (11).

I want to share some email subject lines with you, so you get the true feel for how things are going out there, starting with the most desperate of them all, Castro. Take a look at these:

• four emails received 10/22: this could be the end; Julian Castro RESCUED; unfortunately; vulnerably asking
• three emails received 10/23: in dire need; TRAGIC ending; I won't sugarcoat this
• one email received 10/24: the fate of my campaign

Biden's emails, while slightly less frequent, generally reached out with Castro-like subject lines: we're dropping; we fell short; reaching out to you personally; I hate doing this; here's the honest truth; please. 

Booker is pushing not only his charming personality, but his girlfriend's too: I think Rosario reached out, Sue; Have you ever wanted to hang out with Rosario Dawson AND Cory Booker?; Have you entered to meet Rosario Dawson and Cory Booker yet, Sue?; So, what do you say, Sue, dinner?  

And here are four emails in four days from Kamala Harris, the other candidate in the 'desperate' column: not so great news; since this morning; absolutely critical; clear. These relate primarily to daily fundraising goals that are not being met, or barely being met.

So, the candidates that are happier, who are doing better since the debate last week?

• Warren was pushing to get 2 million contributions, with one email on the 18th, two on the 19th, and two on the 20th, including the one announcing the milestone had been reached. 

• Sanders was torn between leveraging Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and not even mentioning her. There were two emails on the 19th featuring her, one with a picture of the two of them at his rally. Over the next three days he was still talking about the rally, but not about her. 

• Klobuchar was in a celebratory mood after her debate performance, including a thank you for blowing past the $100K one-day-post-debate fundraising goal. In the first 24 hours, her campaign raised $1.1 million, with a $2M total for the week.

• Yang was heavily focused on proving people wrong, helping convince people who haven't made up their mind yet that he's the right one, and on his 10-hour Q&A (huge props for that). But it sounds like he has too little cash on hand, which could be a problem. 

• Mayor Pete also raised a million bucks in the first 24 hours after the debate, and there were five emails related to his latest contest: a trip to San Francisco to see Hamilton with his husband. The subject line on one of those? young, scrappy and hungry. Gotta love that! And, he wins the the prize for the email of the week.

Next week? I'll try and cull the herd so this becomes a little more manageable, unless the herd culls itself. 

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby? (7)

It's that time again - another Thursday spent reading emails from the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Well, the top 10 of them, that is. I won't be adding anyone to my social experiment, so Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer and the rest of them who are still in the race but not making it to the debates? Yeah, our relationship is going nowhere.

For the ten contenders, if that's the right word to use, I'm close to cutting a few of you loose, if you don't cut yourselves loose first. Just being honest, and we all know honesty is the best policy - even better than Medicare for All.

I'm changing things up again a little, because it's been made very clear throughout the course of the social experiment that the majority the emails the candidates are sending are requests for money. Sure, sometimes there's a hint of policy, or news, but for the most part they are sending bald-faced money requests, so I'm not going to focus on that anymore. Instead, I'm going to focus on what they are talking about, in addition to money.

First, the numbers: I received 178 emails before this week's deadline. Because we had the debate on Tuesday, I bucketed the emails into those received by midnight on the 14th, the day before the debate, and emails received on debate day or later. 110 emails made it into the first bucket, with another 68 in the second one.  Here's the breakdown by candidate.

Diving a little deeper into the candidate's emails, here are some trends: 

• There was a lot of concern about not only their appearances at this weeks' debate, but also viability for the next one, and there were of course a number of post-debate emails celebrating individual performances.This was consistent across all candidates, whether (in my opinion) there was anything to celebrate from the debate, or not. 
• Several candidates tied emails to both pre-debate and post-debate fundraising goals; Kamala Harris had a fundraising email during the debate. Goals ranged from $100,000 (Castro) to $1,000,000 (Mayor Pete) to $2,000,000 in six weeks (O'Rourke), so you can see expectations are vastly different among the candidates. 
• It seemed the candidates asking for money the most were Harris and Warren - or at least, they were the most desperate.
• Surveys were common, as were merch rollouts; this is a continuing trend from the very beginning. Andrew Yang's campaign has a cool new scarf, while Bernie Sanders  is continuing his "Billionaires Should Not Exist" campaign, with a bumper sticker you can put on your neighbor's car or something. 
• Biden continued to focus on Trump, including a demand that the president produce his income taxes "or shut up" - a more strident approach then any of the others took. O'Rourke planned a protest rally during Trump's Texas visit, and also pointed out that Trump is a symptom, not the problem; Mayor Pete focused on his 'day after the Trump presidency' messaging, and Klobuchar said Trump could come to Minnesota as often as he wanted, but he wasn't going to win, 
• Harris had whole litany of things to talk about, including LGBTQ issues, which the other candidates got in before last week's deadline; electability; Don Junior's tweet about her laugh, which she milked for three emails alone, and reproductive rights.
• For her part, Warren clarified her position on who she'd take money from, and her plan for getting money out of politics should she win.
• Klobuchar focused on what's she's been doing in Iowa, her new ads, polls, and the debates; Yang focused on similar subjects, including having set and met goals already, as he continues to do well. 

All in all, they worked pretty hard this week. Booker had the most eclectic set of emails, including one asking for money for wildfire relief, and one from his girlfriend, Rosario Dawson, which was in the running for email of the week. 

But the winner there, hands down, was Julian Castro. Take a look:

BREAKING: After uproar when SNL failed to represent Julián Castro, the only Latino candidate running for President, SNL reverses course. WATCH THE SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE CLIP: See Hamilton’s Lin-Manuel Miranda’s hilarious impression of Julián. After Julián was left out of SNL, there was an uproar. Activists all over the country wrote in to SNL, called them out on social media, and called NBC in protest.  And your activism worked -- after erasing the only Latino from the debate stage, this weekend SNL had none other than Lin-Manuel Miranda from Hamilton play Julián. Thanks for the laughs, Lin-Manuel! And thank you for your activism. -Team Julián

So - another week in the books. We saw humor, we saw desperation, we saw hope, and we saw personality.

I'll take it. 

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby? (6)

This is the sixth update on my social experiment with the top ten 2020 Democratic presidential candidates and how they communicate with prospective supporters. (You can read the original post that started all of this silliness here, and prior updates here, here, here , here and here.)

Things slowed quite a bit this week, now that we're past the Q3 deadline. Here's this week's tally:

• 118 emails received, a drop of 76 compared to last week (and can I tell you, I appreciated that?);
• 83 (70.3%) were primarily requests for donations, even though there may have been some kind of underlying message;
• 30 of the emails were in the general/miscellaneous category; as with past weeks, the focus for these tended to be surveys, those darn sticker, merch, and so on. This week, several candidates mentioned LGBTQ rights because of the Supreme Court activity;  and 
• 5 emails were directly related to the October 15th debate; now that they've all qualified, the emails were looking for issues to focus on, or hosting debate watch parties. 

In order, the top five asking for money the most were Kamala Harris (84.6%), Cory Booker (78.6%), Julian Castro (77.8%), Elizabeth Warren (76.9%) and  Andrew Yang (70%). The other candidates, in descending order:  Amy Klobuchar (66.7%), Bernie Sanders (63.6%), Joe Biden (63.2%), Pete Buttigieg (60%), and Beto O'Rourke (57.1%). 

This week saw only one email related to guns - and it wasn't Beto this time, it was Biden. Bernie mentioned Medicare for All, pointing out that everyone should be entitled to the same great health care he received after suffering his heart attack.  

On other issues, we saw new plans from Warren, who introduced a new worker's rights plan, and Sanders, who rolled out his 'Money isn't Speech' plan.  And, both Buttigieg and Warren released plans for LGBTQ equality.

Not surprisingly, Joe Biden spent a lot of time talking about Donald Trump, including announcing (later than several of his counterparts) that the president should be impeached. 

Andrew Yang, who had a really good Q3 from a fundraising perspective, devoted some time to pointing out media bias, including leaving him out of graphics showing the top money raisers (Booker, who raised a couple million less than Yang, made the list) and how he and his plans are not getting the attention they deserve given his support. Honestly, I don't blame him.

Warren made mention of pregnancy discrimination, reiterating her story of  "being shown the door" when she was a young, visibly pregnant teacher, which has recently come under scrutiny. She asked women to share their stories with her, and if it goes as it has for many news outlets that asked the same question, she's going to get a lot of them.

And finally, our email of the week. I was intrigued by one from the Harris campaign that referenced an app called TikTok and cow videos, but in the end, I chose this one from Mayor Pete's campaign for the win.  

Hi there,

We’re running a massive weekend of outreach this weekend -- we’re calling it “Boot-Pledge-Pledge.”

All across the country, members of Team Pete (that’s you!) are gathering to knock on doors, make phone calls, reach out to your friends and family, and in some cases, collect signatures to help get Pete on the ballot. We’re asking people to pledge their support for Pete. (See what we did there?)

Will you sign up to make calls this Boot-Pledge-Pledge weekend?

We’re making calls all weekend into the early states to identify Pete supporters, and we’d love for you to join. Click here to sign up to share Pete’s bold vision for the future, and we'll be in touch with all the information you need to get started.

We’re so excited for this Boot-Pledge-Pledge weekend, and really hope you can join us.

See you soon, and thanks!!

Yes, I saw what you did there.

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby (5)

This is the fifth update on my social experiment with the top ten 2020 Democratic presidential candidates and how they communicate with prospective supporters. (You can read the original post that started all of this silliness here, and prior updates here, here, here and here.)

And, if you do read the prior posts, or if you remember where we left off last week, you can tell that we've kind of hit a rut. Actually, not just a rut - a pit. A money pit, like the one you get when you buy a hose.  A giant, sucking money pit, that steals all of the conversation that could be happening around policy and what differentiates the candidates from each other, and instead forces them to talk only about money.

My money. My zip code's money. My state's money. The universe's money. All the money ever invented, and even money not yet invented. OK, I made those last ones up, but it felt like that's what was being requested.

Now, this was not unexpected - Monday was September 30th, the last day of Q3 fundraising, so the push was on, right up until 11:22 PM, which is when I received the last email of the quarter, from Joe Biden's campaign.  Beto O'Rourke gave up first, sending his last Q3 email to me at 7:17PM.

Speaking of Biden, I'm not sure whether he's running for president anymore, or building a legal defense fund. I say that at least half in jest but the tone of his emails since the noise about his son Hunter's lack of qualifications for pretty much everything started hitting the fan have been all about Trump attacking his family, and how he needs to fight back. Here's a sampling.

We’ll be honest: Joe won’t have as much cash as Trump when the fundraising deadline hits. But we’d love to tell Joe that his team rallied to his side after Trump's baseless attacks. It’d mean a lot. (Note: I received this wording at least three times)

We still need $190,000 before Monday’s end-of-quarter deadline to elect Joe Biden and fight back against (Trump's) lies. If we fall short, the consequences could be dire. 

Please, can we count on your help? Chip in now to defend Joe Biden.I think you get the drift here. We are not 'rallying to Joe's side' - he can start a GoFundMe page for that. We're trying to find someone to be president, for heaven's sake. Do better, Joe - do better.

To make life easier for me, I changed the counting methodology just a bit. The first few weeks, I tracked emails by subject, including general emails, and separately categorized how many direct requests for money were received. So, that made me categorize most emails twice. Going forward, an email that is primarily an ask for money is now counted as just that. General emails are those which discuss something in depth other than just "I need your cash."  Nothing nefarious here, just a bookkeeping change.

Here's this week's tally:

• 194 emails received, 35 more than last week;
• 171 (87.6%) were primarily requests for donations, compared to 82% last week;
• 21 emails were in the general category, focusing on things like surveys, new advertisements, new merchandise, what they've been doing on the campaign, and whatnot; and 
• 2 emails were directly related to the October 15th debate, mostly about making sure the candidate made the stage. 

Who asked for money the most? Elizabeth Warren; 96% of her emails were about money. Amy Klobuchar (92.8%), and Kamala Harris and Biden (92.3% each) also were in the top echelon. At the bottom of the pack was Cory Booker, with 72.2% direct requests for money. This is interesting; you might recall, he went public that if he didn't meet his fundraising goal, he'd get out of the race. Having exceeded the goal, Booker plans on being around for at least a while longer.

A couple of emails did touch on issues -- trying to solve childhood poverty was one, from Booker, and there were some references to the NRA and gun control, but nothing on the other big issues such as climate change or immigration.

Kamala Harris hit out at the potential for a Biden Super PAC, and at Tom Steyer for buying $12M in advertising, and she hit at Rudy Giuliani a couple of times, too, showing little fear in her goal to raise money.

Finally, to our email of the week, there was this one from Beto O'Rourke, with the subject line 'Miss Whiskers' - take a look.

Campaigns are really upping the ante when it comes to fundraising for the FEC deadline. Two candidates said this week they would drop out if they don’t meet their goals. Now, we’re not going to do that. But, I am starting to run out of ways to show how important this deadline is.

Maybe I could do a Facebook live stream with a kitten in hand and say, “You know, we wouldn’t want anything to happen to this kitten now would we… Send your $5 now and Miss Whiskers will be fine.”

To be clear, we’re not planning on harming any kittens. But we do need your help...

They're going to have to up their game to top that one next week.

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me, Baby? (4)

We are now in week four of my social experiment with the top ten Dems running for president.

If you're new to this one, I decided (and I confess, I might have been drinking,...) to sign up for emails from the campaigns of all the contenders who qualified for the 'single-stage' debate in Houston earlier this month.  The point? To see what's on their mind, and what they want to be on my mind as I look to find a candidate with whom I can move forward.

Here's the link to last week's update, which includes updates to all of the previous articles in this series, and the highlights from the post:

How did we do in week three?

• I received 175 emails by this afternoon's deadline, 35 more than last week; 76% directly asked for money.
• Kamala Harris sent me 29 emails, followed by Cory Booker (24), Joe Biden (22), and Elizabeth Warren (20). At the other end of the scale, Bernie Sanders and Julian Castro (12 each) were trailed only by Amy Klobuchar (8)...  
• On the asking for money part, Sanders led the way, with 92% of his emails making a direct pitch for money. He was followed closely by Warren (90%) and Klobuchar (88%).  The one asking for money the least? Beto, with only 65% of his emails making a blatant pitch.

And this week?

• Email volume overall was down. I only received 159, compared to last week's 175, but the percentage that directly asked for money was up -- from 76% to 82% (131 emails).
• Individually, most of them slowed down at least a little, since we didn't have a debate staring us in the face. Kamala Harris reached out the most, with 27 emails. Joe Biden (23), Cory Booker (21) and Elizabeth Warren (19) were also in the top tier, with Andrew Yang (14), Beto O'Rourke, (13), Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders  and Julian Castro (11 each) and Mayor Pete (9) rounding out the list.
• Who wanted my money the most? That would be Andrew Yang; 100% of his emails had a direct ask for money. Biden and Klobuchar (91%), Harris (85%), Booker (81%) and Warren (80%) were also pretty good at pushing the donations. Buttigieg (78%), Sanders (73%), Beto (62%) and Castro (60%) trailed here. 

And I can get on the donor wall, get a phone call from a candidate - and they don't care if I've made up my mind yet, they'll still take my money.  Both Biden and Harris sent emails with a subject line 'Bernie Sanders' which I thought was odd; they mentioned Bernie hitting 1,000,000 donors and how that meant I had to step up my game to keep them in the mix.

It's a lot of pressure on me, I have to say.

What else are they talking about? Trump and Ukraine, especially the Biden team. Impeachment and how much fun they're having in Iowa are common to all campaigns. Beto's still talking a little about pot, more about guns. And Bernie? He wants to wipe out billionaires. Seriously - take a look at these excerpts from his email with the subject "Billionaires should not exist"

And in order to reduce the outrageous level of inequality that exists in America today and to rebuild the disappearing middle class, the time has come for the United States to establish an annual tax on the extreme wealth of the top 0.1 percent of U.S. households.

Our tax on extreme wealth would only apply to the wealthiest households in America and would cut the wealth of billionaires in half over 15 years — which would substantially break up the concentration of wealth and power of this small, privileged class.

Now, I have never understood how someone could have tens and hundreds of billions of dollars and feel the desperate need for even more. I would think that with the amount of money the 0.1 percent of this country has, they might just be able to get by. 

I'm curious as to why Sanders only wants to take away half of their wealth, or how he thinks they'll have less power if they only have $50B instead of $100B or more, and why he thinks they feel the desperate need for more money. I guess they're supposed to just quit their jobs and shutter their companies to avoid making more? (Clearly, as regular readers know, I'm not a Sanders fan.)

As with prior weeks, they are not talking about jobs (0 emails), education (0), the economy (1), immigration (0), foreign policy (0), climate change (1) or barely mention health insurance (2). Warren has updated both her shopping options and her website with a special place just for her plans.

With the end-of-quarter FEC deadline only four days away, I expect the money pressure to ramp up significantly over the next couple of days. I also expect to see more emails about Trump, impeachment, and the debate requirements after today's goings-on in DC.

Stay tuned.

Poll Watch: In Iowa, it's Warren (for now)

The latest poll from the Des Moines Register is out, and for the first time, Joe Biden is not in the lead.

Here's the small print: The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

The poll asked respondents to identify their first and second choices for president, as well as others they are actively considering. Looking at the first choice rankings, Elizabeth Warren (22%) came out two points ahead of Joe Biden (20%), 11 points head of Bernie Sanders (11%), and 13 points ahead of Pete Buttigieg. 

More interesting, though, is where they stand when you look at total support based on first, second and actively considered choices. Warren and Biden are still the top two, but Sanders falls to fifth behind Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. The latter two have the highest 'actively considering' totals, and are tied with Biden as the second choice of respondents. 

Warren's overall support has increased by 10% since the paper's June poll. And, she's got the highest favorability (75%) followed by Mayor Pete (69%) and Biden (66%).

Here  are some other data points from the poll.

• 63% say they could change their mind and support a different candidate, with only 20% saying their minds are made up; for Warren, 88% say they could be persuaded to support someone else. For Biden, 26% say they're good, with 70% saying they could go with some different.

• Biden's favorability has dropped, having been at 82% in December, and his unfavorables have almost doubled (15% to 29%). 

• Overall, 28% of folks say they are extremely enthusiastic about their first choice; for Warren, it's 32%, and only 22% of Biden. 31% of his supporters are 'mildly enthusiastic', whereas only 11% of Warren supporters describe themselves that way.

• Biden is favored by older respondents, with 35% support among the 65+ group. That demographic is about 25% of caucus-goers; he leads Warren by a 3-to-1 margin. Warren holds the under-35 age group,with 27% first choice support; Sanders has 22% first-choice support here, whild Biden as only 9%.

• Sanders is losing supporters from 2016. 25% say they'll be in his corner again, but 32% are supporting Warren, and 12% going to Buttigieg. And, among the self-described 'very liberal' cohort, which makes up 20% of likely caucus-goers, 48% are backing Warren and only 20% backing Sanders. 

Julian Castro is is in trouble. He's doing the best among the worst - the group at 1% support - but his attacks on Biden in Houston didn't help. 

• He's getting better known, with 71% able to rate how they feel about him, compared to only 47% who said that in the June poll, but his unfavorable rating has gone from 13% to 36%. 
• More than half of folks who watched all of the debate earlier this month rate him unfavorably (54%), compared to 23% who didn't watch any of the debate. 

Finally, looking ahead to the general election, 63% say having a candidate who can defeat the president is more important than finding someone who shares their position on the issues (31%). 

But just what is 'electability' in the mind of Iowa caucus-goers? Respondents were asked to rate four pairs of statements showing characteristics defining electability. Here's how that looked:

It will be interesting to see how this changes when the next round of polling is done, how it impacts how the candidates act out on the trail - and in the October debate -  and also whether or not it has an impact on my social experiment. 

In Case You Missed It (v3)

I know you want to read me every day, right? But sometimes you can't?

It's OK - not only do I forgive you, but I'm even handing you a cheat sheet to this week's posts. Take a look.

On our Sunday School stroll through the halls of punditry this week, we heard from Mayor Pete on Afghanistan, particularly a misinterpreted comment during the debate about how the war started. Some in the media thought (or pretended they thought) that he said the US started that war. Buttigieg, on the anniversary of his coming home from that war, clarified

 I did not say that the US started the war; what I'm saying is the lesson is that wars are difficult to end...

And we heard from Andrew Yang on a number of subjects, including his announcement during the debate that he'd offer $1000 per month to ten families who got on his website and told him why they needed the money. And, he raised attention to the issue of money in politics, noting that if he

"gave a million dollars to a media company or consultants or hired a small army of canvassers, no one would blink an eye, but if we give the money directly to the American people, somehow that's problematic. So, it just speaks directly to how messed up our system is..."

In Monday's We Don't Need to Take People's Guns Away I disagreed with Beto O'Rourke's plan to do exactly that.

Don't get me wrong -- I think these guns are unnecessary, and have no purpose other than inflicting a great deal of harm in a very short period of time. But the mandatory buyback - confiscation with pay, if you will - is wrong. And I don't think most Democrats, or most Americans, believe it's right, or constitutional, even though O'Rourke says it can be done using the Commerce Clause without stepping on the Second Amendment.

This is exactly the kind of position that will make it much harder to get Donald Trump out of office next year. 

My sense that most Americans don't agree with O'Rourke on this was illustrated in Wednesday's Poll Watch  which summarized a recent Quinnipiac survey or registered voters.  But more interesting than our opinions on guns, and on climate change, another of the survey's topics, were the opinions on prejudice. For example,

By political party, the percentages of people saying prejudice is at least a somewhat serious problem falls where you'd expect it to, but the percentages were a little more extreme than I anticipated. 

We were Wondering on Wednesday afternoon about Republican presidential primaries being cancelled, angry Bernie Sanders voters, impeaching Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and about Trump's new National Security Advisor. On Kavanaugh, I wondered if we'd return to any sense of normalcy.

More important, though - under even the weakest of normal circumstances, the nomination of a potential SCOTUS justice with even a hint of what he's accused of never would have seen the light of day. And I wonder if we'll ever be close to that kind of normal again.

In Thursday's visit to the Update Desk, we looked at email activity from the top ten Democrats. Both the volume of emails, and the percentage of them asking for money, increased this week. What didn't change? What the candidates are talking about (money) and not talking about (issues).

Only Booker and Yang dedicated an email to the UAW strike, which surprised me given the candidates are all actively seeking the coveted union endorsements. Mayor Pete talked about Medicare For All Who Want It, his health insurance plan, and Cory Booker released an economic plan, so that was worth one email. And that was it - nothing solely related to immigration, foreign policy, education, and climate change. 

And finally, it was the last day of the work week and time for our TGIF feature, which looked at not just people (Rudy Giuliani, for one) but at a word. That's right - a word. Can a word have a good week or a bad week? Well, it seems it can. Or, sometimes, it 'shall', which

has this particularly relevant meaning, under 3(b): --used in laws, regulations, or directives to express what is mandatory.

Hmm.. mandatory? You mean like when a whistleblower complaint has been investigated and determined to be credible and urgent, and therefore it shall be turned over to Congress?  I would have thought this would be a good week for 'shall' but in our bizarro world, 'shall' and 'shall not' are synonyms, not antonyms.

So - there's this week in a nutshell. Next week, we'll have our regular features, as well as updates on whatever hot topics shall arise.

The Update Desk: Who Loves Me Baby? (3)

Who Loves Me, Baby? was my original post setting the stage for me signing up with all ten of the top-tier candidates (nine Dems + Bernie) to see how they communicate. 

This update highlights the first week of my joining the fray, which included the end-of-August fundraising deadline and the lead-up to the CNN Climate Change town hall. And, here are the highlights from the second week. 

How did we do in week three?

• I received 175 emails by this afternoon's deadline, 35 more than last week; 76% directly asked for money.
• Kamala Harris sent me 29 emails, followed by Cory Booker (24), Joe Biden (22), and Elizabeth Warren (20). At the other end of the scale, Bernie Sanders and Julian Castro (12 each) were trailed only by Amy Klobuchar (8). In the middle of the pack this week were Beto O'Rourke (17), Andrew Yang (16 - twice as many as last week) and Pete Buttigieg (15).  
• On the asking for money part, Sanders led the way, with 92% of his emails making a direct pitch for money. He was followed closely by Warren (90%) and Klobuchar (88%).  The one asking for money the least? Beto, with only 65% of his emails making a blatant pitch.

Based on the email numbers, Klobuchar seems to have the least aggressive team, although she did significantly up her game in terms of asking for money.

Again this week, there were lots of emails about the Houston debate. While 30% of last week's emails were all about "when I'm on the debate stage," 25% of this week's were about how they did while they were up there. Other than that, it was more of the same, the "hey, I'm out here" kind of thing, covering mostly Trump, FEC deadlines, fundraising goals, and the like. 

Honestly, they are almost entirely focused on the money: the debate qualifying rules: another candidate making the cut for the October debate (which may mean two nights, again - ugh), concerns the requirements will be tightened again going in to the debate after that, and the end-of-September filing deadline.  And, of course there were three or four references to Justice Brett Kavanaugh, after the new allegations came out.

Beto used two of his emails to ask for donations for the guy running against the Texas Representative who made the "death threat" against O'Rourke over his mandatory buyback plan for assault weapons. 

And what's with the stickers? Everybody's got stickers, it seems. Most of them are totally free, but Warren asks for a donation of any amount to get a free sticker, and Biden asks for a donation of any amount to cover production and shipping (with a $7 hint in case you're not sure what to do).

Only Booker and Yang dedicated an email to the UAW strike, which surprised me given the candidates are all actively seeking the coveted union endorsements. Mayor Pete talked about Medicare For All Who Want It, his health insurance plan, and Cory Booker released an economic plan, so that was worth one email. And that was it - nothing solely related to immigration, foreign policy, education, and climate change. 

The most interesting emails this time?  

• Beto has a "comprehensive plan to end the failed War on Drugs, legalize pot, and fix the injustices in the country's drug policies. And, he wrote a book about legalizing pot back in 2011, and I can get a copy by donating any amount.

• Yang's Marijuana Math hat is back - and last time it sold out fast. For $42, if I act fast, I might be able to score one.

• Elizabeth Warren spends a LONG time in selfie lines - and she's not going to quit doing that, either, no matter what anyone tells her.

I want them to start spending more time talking to me about issues, and much less time talking to me about how much they need my money, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for next week.

Maybe that'll change if I get one of those free stickers.