Poll Watch: In Iowa, it's Warren (for now)

The latest poll from the Des Moines Register is out, and for the first time, Joe Biden is not in the lead.

Here's the small print: The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

The poll asked respondents to identify their first and second choices for president, as well as others they are actively considering. Looking at the first choice rankings, Elizabeth Warren (22%) came out two points ahead of Joe Biden (20%), 11 points head of Bernie Sanders (11%), and 13 points ahead of Pete Buttigieg. 

More interesting, though, is where they stand when you look at total support based on first, second and actively considered choices. Warren and Biden are still the top two, but Sanders falls to fifth behind Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. The latter two have the highest 'actively considering' totals, and are tied with Biden as the second choice of respondents. 

Warren's overall support has increased by 10% since the paper's June poll. And, she's got the highest favorability (75%) followed by Mayor Pete (69%) and Biden (66%).

Here  are some other data points from the poll.

• 63% say they could change their mind and support a different candidate, with only 20% saying their minds are made up; for Warren, 88% say they could be persuaded to support someone else. For Biden, 26% say they're good, with 70% saying they could go with some different.

• Biden's favorability has dropped, having been at 82% in December, and his unfavorables have almost doubled (15% to 29%). 

• Overall, 28% of folks say they are extremely enthusiastic about their first choice; for Warren, it's 32%, and only 22% of Biden. 31% of his supporters are 'mildly enthusiastic', whereas only 11% of Warren supporters describe themselves that way.

• Biden is favored by older respondents, with 35% support among the 65+ group. That demographic is about 25% of caucus-goers; he leads Warren by a 3-to-1 margin. Warren holds the under-35 age group,with 27% first choice support; Sanders has 22% first-choice support here, whild Biden as only 9%.

• Sanders is losing supporters from 2016. 25% say they'll be in his corner again, but 32% are supporting Warren, and 12% going to Buttigieg. And, among the self-described 'very liberal' cohort, which makes up 20% of likely caucus-goers, 48% are backing Warren and only 20% backing Sanders. 

Julian Castro is is in trouble. He's doing the best among the worst - the group at 1% support - but his attacks on Biden in Houston didn't help. 

• He's getting better known, with 71% able to rate how they feel about him, compared to only 47% who said that in the June poll, but his unfavorable rating has gone from 13% to 36%. 
• More than half of folks who watched all of the debate earlier this month rate him unfavorably (54%), compared to 23% who didn't watch any of the debate. 

Finally, looking ahead to the general election, 63% say having a candidate who can defeat the president is more important than finding someone who shares their position on the issues (31%). 

But just what is 'electability' in the mind of Iowa caucus-goers? Respondents were asked to rate four pairs of statements showing characteristics defining electability. Here's how that looked:

It will be interesting to see how this changes when the next round of polling is done, how it impacts how the candidates act out on the trail - and in the October debate -  and also whether or not it has an impact on my social experiment.