Poll Watch: The Not-So-Good, the Bad & the Ugly

The president is facing "historically poor" personal favorability ratings, even as his overall approval rate is holding steady at 45%, according to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

First, the small print: the poll, taken September 13th - 16th, consisted of interviews with 900 registered voters, 506 of whom were Democratic primary voters; 52% of respondents were women. 495 of the respondents only have a cell phone.

So, Trump's approval rating is consistent with that of former Presidents Obama and Clinton at this time in their presidency, the pollsters say, but he is not well liked, even by people who like what he's doing as president. 69% don't like him, including nearly one in five who don't like him even as they approve of his policies.

The other takeaway from this question?  Approval of his policies is underwater by 10 points (54% don't approve, 44% do). And, this will pain Trump I'm sure, but his predecessors - Obama (64%), Bush II (57%), Clinton (55%) Bush I (78%), and Reagan (66%) were all better liked than he is. Data on Abraham Lincoln is not immediately available.

Remarkably, while 36% say they've become less confident in Trump's ability to lead, 17% say they're more confident. And Joe Biden? Well, he has a similar problem, with the same percentage - 36% - saying they're less confident in his ability to lead; even worse, only 8% say their confidence in Biden as president has grown.

Looking at little deeper at the leading Dems and Trump, every one of them is under water with voters on the positive side of the ledger (either 'enthusiastic' or 'comfortable') shown in the first percentage, or the negative side of the ledger (either 'some reservations' or 'very uncomfortable) shown in the second percentage, although most of the Dems have a fairly significant percentage of 'don't know' responses (DK in the table below).

• Trump: -17 (41% to 58%)
• Elizabeth Warren: -12 (37% to 49%), 13% DK
• Bernie Sanders: -26 (36% to 62%), 2% DK
• Joe Biden: -23 (37% to 60%), 1% DK
• Pete Buttigieg: -14 (24% to 38%), 35% DK
• Kamala Harris: -17 (25% to 42%), 22% DK

Trump leads all of the Dems with 26% giving him enthusiastic support, compared to 17% for Warren, 13% for Sanders, and 12% for Biden. Buttigieg and Harris are both below 10%. 

What about the economy, Trump's greatest claim to success? Overall, 39% think their own economic situation is getting better, 42% this it's the same, and 18% think it's getting worse. And,

• 46% think the economy has improved during Trump's presidency and that Trump deserves at least some credit for that;
• 25% say the economy has improved, but Trump doesn't deserve much credit; and
• 26% say it hasn't really improved all that much anyway.

Finally, a couple of notes on how these folks voted last time out.

• 40% voted for Clinton, 25% because they liked her, and 15% because they didn't like him.
• 38% voted for Trump, 25% because they liked him, and 13% because they didn't like her.  

There's a lot the Dems can learn from this survey, I think, in terms of the depth of support, the lack of recognition for even the front-runners, and on why voters vote. The last thing the Dems want to do is choose a candidate who is 'less dislikeable' than Trump. 

I'll share the policy opinion data in a sidebar.