Sunday School 1/2/22

Yesterday's classroom discussions focused mostly on the pandemic and the insurrection; I'll focus on the former here, and save the latter for your Extra Credit.

Dr. Anthony Fauci and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona made multiple appearances, while former FDA head Scott Gottlieb and Republican governors Larry Hogan (MD) and Asa Hutchinson (AR) were also roaming the halls. Here are some highlights.

Fauci, speaking with George Stephanopoulos on ABC's This Week, gave this as his "key message on where things stand right now." 

Well, we are definitely in the middle of a very severe surge and uptick in cases...it is actually almost a vertical increase. We're now at an average of about 400,000 cases per day. Hospitalizations are up. One of the things that we hope for, George, is that this thing will peak after a period of a few weeks and turn around. 

And, in the State of the Union classroom, here's Fauci's response to a question from Dana Bash about the driver of the CDC's new relaxed guidelines on quarantining - science or social and business pressures.

There is no doubt that you do want to get people out into the workplace if they are without symptoms. And in the second half of a 10-day period, which would normally be a 10-day isolation period, the likelihood of transmissibility is considerably lower... the CDC made the judgment that it would be relatively low-risk to get people out. You're right. People are getting concerned about, why not test people at that time? I myself feel that that's a reasonable thing to do. I believe that the CDC soon will be coming out with more clarification of that, since it obviously has generated a number of questions...

Gottlieb appears regularly on Face the Nation, and touched on a few key issues in his discussion with Margaret Brennan. For example, he said that over 600 children have died from COVID since the beginning of the pandemic, compared to three pediatric deaths from the flu in the same time period. That said, 

In terms of going back to school, I think the prerogative clearly is to try to get schools reopened. We shouldn't be doing preemptive school closures, in my opinion, but there will be situations where we have reactive school closures, when there are large outbreaks.

Antigen tests work fairly well at detecting the omicron variant, but that "serial testing over a period of time" is the best way to protect a high-risk setting like a school. 

While any individual test could miss the infection, if you're doing serial testing, you're likely to pick it up. And we need to get tests into schools. We still don't have tests widely available to the schools, so that they can use these tests for tests-to- stay policies to prevent large quarantines when are cases diagnosed in the classroom.

He said we should be focused on getting schools open, and keeping them open, pointing out "with the tools we have, with prudence, with the knowledge we have," we can do "a pretty good job" of controlling large outbreaks in schools. However, he's not a fan of mandating boosters for school-age kids. He pointed to studies showing that there was "100% protection" in the 12-16 age group, and said in that group, the vaccinated "are getting a more robust response" from vaccines than others.

For his part, Secretary Cardona did his best to explain that the Biden administration wants kids in schools, they want everyone learning the best possible way they can, they want tests to be available, they want ventilation to be effective, and so on - but that's not enough, according to both Brennan and Gallagher. 

The hosts were skeptical of the efforts that have been undertaken, and how they are being perceived, particularly by teachers. Brennan wondered about teachers in Chicago, Massachusetts and Connecticut saying "they don't feel safe" in schools. Cardona said that the administration's messaging hasn't changed since he's been in position.

We need to make sure we're following mitigation strategies, that we're supporting our educators by providing a safe learning environment, we're providing vaccination for our students as young as 5, so that the whole school community is safe, and we're providing surveillance testing to make sure that, if someone is sick, that they stay home. 

Similarly, Gallagher referenced comments from Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, expressing concern that school districts "don't have the infrastructure for testing and tests to stay. It's going to be really, really bumpy and there's going to need a lot of grace," something she said was "in short supply." 

Cardona noted "there's a level of urgency that we shouldn't lose around making sure that our children learn in person", saying "the impact of hybrid learning, the impact of remote learning, is very real" for parents as well as for the kids. He said the American Rescue Plan funding, coupled with efforts from other groups, is all geared towards keeping kids in school.

And when Gallagher asked if the road wasn't going to be as bumpy as Weingarten predicted, Cardona said

...it's really important that we continue to work together. I do think there will be bumps on the road, especially tomorrow. I mean, superintendents today are receiving calls of staff members that they were expecting to be in the classroom tomorrow who have come down with COVID. So, we're going to roll up our sleeves, all hands on deck. Let's keep our children in the classroom. That should be our default thinking, and as problems come up, we need to work together to solve them.

In both classrooms, I think his arguments fell short.

I'll close with an interesting discussion down the hall in the Fox News Sunday classroom, where Trace Gallagher talked with Gov. Hutchinson. To me, it felt like Gallagher was trying to get Hutchinson to downplay the efforts of the Biden administration on the pandemic, but the gov was surprisingly complimentary. 

For example, Hutchinson thought it "was an important step" that the CDC revised the guidelines, saying it was "a recognition that we have to be able to manage our way through" the pandemic. He applauded that "they used science, they overlaid it with practicality" but admitted there could be more consistency and simplicity for people.

While he agreed that 'pandemic politics' has played a role, and caused frustration and division, he also said "it really is refreshing that, I believe, there's a uniformity of opinion by our leaders that vaccinations are critical to get us through this. And so that unified message is absolutely essential, and we've got to -- so I complemented the president on that." 

Vaccinations have been a sore point in Arkansas; the state ranks 45th in percentage of people vaccinated, but he's not moving towards a mandate any time soon. If they ever did get to that point,

there always has to be the right exceptions for religious convictions if -- you know, if vaccines are not acceptable, and that is the current law in Arkansas, and that should continue to be the case.

Feeling better after all of that? 

See you around campus. 

Sunday School 7/19/20

Today, Fox News Sunday aired an exclusive interview with the president, hosted by Chris Wallace.

I was going to just print the entire transcript, but it's much too long. Instead, here are some highlights, starting with coronavirus issues.

On the expanding virus hotspots being worse than burning embers, instead it's a firestorm:

No, no. But I don't say - I say flames, we'll put out the flames. And we'll put out in some cases just burning embers. We also have burning embers. We have embers and we do have flames. Florida became more flame-like but it's - it's going to be under control. And, you know, it's not just this country, it's many countries. We don't talk about it in the news. They don't talk about Mexico and Brazil and still parts of Europe, which actually got hit sooner than us, so it's a little ahead of us in that sense. But you take a look, why don't they talk about Mexico? Which is not helping us. And all I can say is thank God I built most of the wall, because if I didn't have the wall up, we would have a much bigger problem with Mexico.

On whether Trump takes responsibility for not having a national plan for the various aspects of the virus:

Look, I take responsibility always for everything because it's ultimately my job too. I have to get everybody in line. Some governors have done well, some governors have done poorly. They're supposed to have supplies they didn't have. I supplied everybody. Now we have somewhat of a surge in certain areas and other areas we're doing great. But we have a surge in certain areas. But you don't hear people complaining about ventilators. We've got all the ventilators we can use; we're supplying them to other countries. 

On the increase in testing (up 37%) and cases (up 194%) and positivity:

Many of those cases are young people that would heal in a day. They have the sniffles and we put it down as a test. Many of them - don't forget, I guess it's like 99.7%, people are going to get better and many cases, they're going to get better very quickly.  If we go out and we look and then on the news - look if you go back to the news, all of your - even your wonderful competitors, you'll see cases are up. Well, cases are up - many of those cases shouldn't even be cases. Cases are up because we have the best testing in the world and we have the most testing. No country has ever done what we've done in terms of testing. We are the envy of the world. They call and say the most incredible job anybody's done is our job on testing, because we're going to very shortly be up to 50 million tests. You look at other countries, they don't even do tests. They do tests if somebody walks into the hospital, they're sick, they're really sick, they test them then or they'll test them in a doctor's office. But they don't go around have massive areas of testing we do. And I'm glad we do, but it really skews the numbers.

On the possibility that other countries don't have the virus as bad as we do:

It's possible that they don't test, that's what's possible. We find cases and many of these cases heal automatically. We're finding - in a way, we're creating trouble. Certainly, we are creating trouble for the fake news to come along and say, "Oh, we have more cases." Look, we did something that nobody's ever done. Not only the ventilators, where were supplying them all over the world. We did a testing program the likes of which nobody's ever done before.

On whether he would consider a national mask mandate:

No, I want people to have a certain freedom, and I don't believe in that. No, and I don't agree with the statement that if everybody wear a mask everything disappears. Hey, Dr. Fauci said don't wear a mask. Our Surgeon General - terrific guy - said don't wear a mask. Everybody who is saying don't wear a mask - all of sudden everybody's got to wear a mask, and as you know masks cause problems, too. With that being said, I'm a believer in masks. I think masks are good. But I leave it up to the governors. Many of the governors are changing. They're more mask into - they like the concept of masks, but some of them don't agree.  I do say this - schools have to open. Young people have to go to school, and there's problems when you don't go to school, too. And there's going to be a funding problem because we're not going to fund - when they don't open their schools. We're not going to fund them. We're not going to give them money if they're not going to school, if they don't open.

Moving on to whether he thinks the Confederate flag is offensive:

It depends on who you're talking about, when you're talking about. When people proudly have their Confederate flags, they're not talking about racism. They love their flag, it represents the South, they like the South. People right now like the South. I'd say it's freedom of many things, but it's freedom of speech.

And, finally for today, on whether he'll veto the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which funds the country's military operations, if it contains language removing the names of Confederate heroes from military bases.

Because I think that Fort Bragg, Fort Robert E. Lee, all of these forts that have been named that way for a long time, decades and decades - excuse me, excuse me. I don't care what the military says. I do - I'm supposed to make the decision. Fort Bragg is a big deal. We won two World Wars, nobody even knows General Bragg. We won two World Wars. Go to that community where Fort Bragg is, in a great state, I love that state, go to the community, say how do you like the idea of renaming Fort Bragg, and then what are we going to name it?  We're going to name it after the Reverend Al Sharpton? What are you going to name it Chris, tell me what you're going to name it?

So, there's a whole thing here. We won two World Wars, two World Wars, beautiful World Wars that were vicious and horrible, and we won them out of Fort Bragg, we won them out of all of these forts and now they want to throw those names away. And no, I'm against that, and you know what, most other people are. And I even - I don't believe in polls because I see the fakest polls I've ever seen, but that poll is a 64 percent thing, which actually surprised me. We won World Wars out of these military bases. No, I'm not going to go changing them, I'm not going to go changing them.

One more time, is he going to veto the NDAA over this?

I might. Yes, I might.

We'll have more in tomorrow's Extra Credit. Meanwhile, stay safe, wear your mask (even without a national mandate), and I'll see you around the virtual campus.

Poll Watch: Ratings Through the Roof!

It seems it's been a while since we looked at any polling data, so I thought it was time to dive in again and share what other people are thinking.

For starters, let's look at a CNN poll from earlier this month. Here's the small print: The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from May 7-10, 2020 among a sample of 1,112 respondents. The landline total respondents were 435 and there were 677 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.7 at the 95% confidence level.

The survey tracks responses by gender (M/F only); race (white/non-white); age (18-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65+, under 45; 45 and up); college grad (Y/N), and whites by college grad or non-college grad. In addition, there're party affiliation breakdowns (Democrat, Independent/Other, and Republican); leaning Democrat or Republican; politics (liberal, moderate, or conservative); voter registration (Y/N), and sense of the outbreak (worst is behind us, or worst is yet to come).

We know much all politicians, but the president in particular, are driven by public opinion. I mean, who else will spend time while coping with a pandemic to talk about his Facebook ratings? I think he might not be quite happy with this survey, though.  Here are a few quick highlights:

• 45% of respondents approve of how the president's doing his job, while 51% disapprove, giving him a -6 net score. On the plus side? His approval has ticked up 1% since the April survey. Only four of the demographic cohorts show an approval rate of over 50%: non-college educated whites (57%), whites (53%), folks aged 35-49 (53%), and men (51%).
• However, only 42% approve of how he's handling the coronavirus outbreak, with 55% disapproving, for a -13 net score; the approval dropped 3% since last month. And only two cohorts, non-college educated whites (56%) and whites (51%) pass the 50% threshold here.
• And finally, he's way underwater, by -26, on whether people trust the information they get from him on the coronavirus outbreak: 62% do not trust what he says, compared to only 36% that do. 

Let's look a little deeper, starting with the 'trust' question. It's not like we don't trust anybody - although, you might think that looking at social media, where it often seems that no one trusts science, data, or facts. But, according to the survey, we do trust  what Dr. Anthony Fauci (+47), the CDC (+52), and even CNN (+15) tell us. However, as is the case with the president himself, folks don't trust Fox News (-23) when it comes to coronavirus information.

And of course, the folks at Fox News and in the GOP are ramping up their efforts to create doubt in the Fauci. trust metric. For example, yesterday during Fauci's remote appearance at a Senate hearing, Kentucky's Rand Paul said this.

As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person that gets to make a decision. We can listen to your advice, but there are people on the other side saying there’s not going to be a surge, that we can safely reopen the economy, and the facts will bear this out.

Fauci's response?

I have never made myself out to be the end-all and only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence.

And later, there was this, from Tucker Carlson, suggesting that some thought Fauci should be a dictator or something, and that he was a buffoon, and pointing out that he wasn't elected to anything. So, the one thing I can say for sure? The president has seen this survey, and has seen that he's 42 points underwater on trust compared to Fauci (62% don't trust vs 20%) - so now's a good time for the minions to attack.

One more note: demographically, Fauci kills it. Gender, age group, race, education level, income level, voter registration - he has a net positive in every single one of them. Not only that, but more than half of Republicans (61%), Independents (61%), conservatives (56%), people who think the worst is behind us (60%) and even those who think the worst is yet to come (74%) trust him.

What else does the survey show?

• Most people - 60% - don't personally know anyone who's been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the number who do is on the rise. In the survey taken April 3-7, only 22% knew someone who had been diagnosed; in the latest, it's up to 40%. 

• The percentage of folks thinking that the worst of this darn thing is behind us is moving in a positive direction. In April, only 17% thought that, while in the new survey, it's  up to 44%. But still, more than half - 52% - think the worst is yet to come. 

Respondents are not particularly happy with how the federal government is handling things.  

• In the April and May surveys, more than 50% of respondents said the feds are doing a poor job, and over the course of four surveys, the percentage of people who say a good job is being done hasn't reached 50%. 

• Most respondents are at least 'concerned' (with fewer 'afraid') about some specific issues related to the virus. Take a look.

• And, what do folks think about how the government is handling those issues? Not good, as you can see below. With one exception, more people than not think the feds aren't doing enough, and on three of the remaining four issues, more than 55% have that opinion. (Comically, it's pretty much a split decision on cleaning supplies...)

If you were the president, would you be thrilled with these numbers, or would you be trying to deflect, dissuade, and deny that any issues even exist? If you said the latter, you've hit the nail on the head.

You understand his crazy tweetstorms, and why he's talking about the Obama administration, and about the wall, and about nasty questions at press conferences, and about Mother's Day... anything to avoid addressing how unappreciated he and his team's efforts really are, at a time when all he really wants is to be appreciated.

I'll have some more polling data in the next couple of days. 

Trump in Transition (v44): The Proper Treatment

Earlier this week, I watched ABC News anchor David Muir interview the president. I pulled the transcript to make sure that what I heard was really what the president said. 

Right from the very first question, Trump did what Trump does: lie, deflect, self-promote - things we are, sadly, so very used to. I recommend setting beverages aside while reading this one.

after mentioning Trump's widely reported statement that "the decision to open the economy is the biggest decision I've ever had to make," Muir asked the president how we save livelihoods without risking more lives. Trump wasted no time being Trump.

Well, I think actually the decision to close the country was the biggest decision I've ever had to make, and I've said that very loud and clear. I mean, we had the greatest economy in history, in the history of the world, not only our economy, it was our greatest economy. Best employment numbers, best numbers in every single way. And they said, sir, we have to close the country... But the biggest decision I've ever had to make is closing the country, and certainly this is now also a big decision but the people want to go back to work.

Now, if he had said that closing the country was the biggest decision, wouldn't you think there would be searchable proof that didn't tie back to this very interview?

Asked if he believed lives could be lost to reopen the country, he started out OK, saying "It's possible there will be some because you won't be locked into an apartment or a house or whatever it is" and he even talked about the increase in suicides that could come from the quarantine, but that "we have to bring it back and that's what we're doing. Again we're going to do it safely." 

A normal president, or pretty much any human being, would have stopped there, having answered the question. But not this one.

And not in all cases but most of the governors are working very much with us on this. We've had a very good relationship pretty much with all the governors because we’ve produced like nobody's ever produced before. What we've done with ventilators, and by the way testing which has been a tremendous success, even though we don't get the proper treatment on it... Nobody's ever done -- this is the biggest mobilization since World War Two and it's -- it's been incredible.

Muir tried to get an answer to whether people going back to work should have access to testing or "do they have to go back to work, having faith in their leaders and you, Mr. president, that the workplace will be safe?" Trump talked about some new data on testing, noting among other things that "it's also, every importantly, we have the best testing. We have the best testing."  Which wasn't an answer, so Muir tried again. Workers "should have no problem" getting tested, Trump said, adding,

And as good as this is, we're even getting better. We came up - don't forget, the cupboard was bare. The other administration - the last administration left us nothing. We didn't have ventilators, we didn't have medical equipment, we didn't have testing. The tests were broken. You saw that. We had broken tests. They left us nothing. And we've taken it and we have built an incredible stockpile - a stockpile like we've never had before.

Muir fought back again, asking what Trump did "to restock those cupboards."

****Please put down any beverages before continuing****

Well, I'll be honest. I have a lot of things going on. We had a lot of people that refused to allow the country to be successful. They wasted a lot of time on Russia, Russia, Russia. That turned out to be a total hoax. Then they did Ukraine, Ukraine and that was a total hoax, then they impeached the president of the United States for absolutely no reason, and we even had 197-to-nothing vote by the Republicans.

And essentially, the same thing by the -- by the, if you take a look at the Senate and the House, I mean it was the same thing. Look, what they've done and now they continue to do it. Remember this: when you see these numbers and testing, you're probably even surprised because I watch Chuckie Schumer get on television, and they have sound bites.

No matter what you do, it's never good enough. But you don't hear about ventilators anymore. That was a big problem. You don't hear about testing much anymore but the other night I saw him go on a show of a very unfunny comedian, and he looks at the camera, says, “testing testing.” They will complain, no matter how good we did. If we took these numbers -- 7 million. This is 7 million tests.

And if I doubled or tripled it, they’d still say -- because it's a sound bite. Because they want to try and win an election, which hopefully they won't win because they're going to double everybody -- the taxes are going to double. All the problems that are going to have, and you're going to be back into a bad economy. We had the greatest economy ever, and we're going to do it again.

Just under 300 words, to avoid having to say only four words: "Nothing. I did nothing."

As to whether he agreed with my Sonofa Gov Andrew Cuomo that governors who were trying to reopen might have to stop, or "turn off the valve...slow things down" if they see spikes in key metrics.

No, I don't know -- I’d have to see his full statement. But look we've gotten along very well. Don't forget Governor Cuomo last week said the President and the federal government had done -- have done a phenomenal job. He said that. A phenomenal job.

Huh?

I can only tell you what he said last week. I mean, David, I can only tell you what he said last week. I mean, it wasn't - two years ago. He said the President and the federal government have done a phenomenal job. That was the word he used and he's right.

We built him 2,900 beds. We moved the ship in. Now, they didn't use it too much, which I'm frankly happy about because they didn't need it because we were right about the numbers. We were actually right about the numbers, but we took the Javits Convention Center and made it into a major hospital in a period of four days. So, he's been you know he's been actually very nice, I think.

Muir tried a third time, and Trump talked about Westchester County and how the state did well there, "... it was actually quite a good job." So, we still don't know whether Trump agrees or disagrees with what Cuomo said. These are not hard questions, folks, that the president isn't answering.

After talking about the models and the projected numbers of cases and mortality (Trump says they've been wrong from day one, in both directions), it was time to blame China for a sec, and then he said, "just one thing, if I could."

I think the American people have to consider themselves now -- and I am considering them to be warriors. We are warriors. We are fighting a war against an invisible enemy. We are warriors, and we have to go back to work and that's what they want to do.

YES! I am a warrior princess! I need a costume and a cape! 

Comparing today to the 1918 pandemic, Trump said this is "Not as lethal, individually, but more contagious." He went on to say that no one's seen anything like it before, and 

The people of this country have done a great job. But now I'm looking at them, and I think they're looking at themselves, as being warriors.

We're warriors. We're fighting something that should have never happened but it's an invisible enemy, and it's tough and it's smart. So -- will it happen to other people? Yes, it could happen to me and it could happen to you. And I'm prepared for that. But look, we're out and we're distancing. We're far away, and a lot of things are happening. We've changed... We’re gonna get back to our normal life... I hope it’s gonna be soon. 

And then, it was time to talk about one of his favorite things.

Somebody said to me like, everybody’s longing for the rallies. We all have a lot of fun at my rallies. And -- I hope we can do that soon. I mean, I hope we can do that. I can’t have a rally with, you know, 7 seats in between everybody. And I hope we can do that soon. The rallies are the least of it, but you know, people are asking me all the time. Just last night, I got three calls -- “When are we gonna do a rally?” I said, “Just relax. Take it easy.” But we’re gonna do -- I hope before the election.

He moved on to how need sporting events, in full arenas. Trump recounted a call he had with sports owners about having full arenas. And, he said

You know, the virus will pass. There'll be more death, that the virus will pass, with or without a vaccine. And I think we're doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it's going to pass, and we're going to be back to normal. But it's been a rough process. There is no question about it.

Muir wondered how bad it was going to get, the jobs numbers and whatnot.

Well, that is what it is. And you know, it's very interesting. Even the Democrats aren't blaming me for that.... The third quarter, I think, is going to be -- I call it a transition quarter. A lot of people -- you see it. I’ll tell you what. I got on the plane today, there was such spirit. People are starting to feel -- we land in Arizona, I leave from DC, I get calls from everybody, all over the country. I just spoke to the governor of Florida. Florida is really active.

I mean, a lot of these states are really getting back into gear. There's a spirit out there right now that's pretty incredible. But even the Democrats, they're not hitting me with “Oh gee, it's your fault” from that standpoint. Nobody's blaming me. What I want to do is, we have a transition period coming. I think the fourth quarter will be very good. And I think next year is going to be one of the best years we've ever had, economically. There is a pent-up demand that's incredible. The oil's going back up. We're going to start saving some energy jobs. I really think next year is going to be one of the best years we've ever had. Watch it happen.

Muir noted that lots of people, "they're just trying to get through next week, or the next dinner they put on the table."

Well, we've done a lot for that. We've done our small business, as you know, our PPP, paycheck, if you want to call it that, where small businesses are given billions of dollars, so that they can take care of their employees. We've done a lot of other -- look, we've done $2 trillion. And it's actually close to three if you really add it up but $2 trillion has been approved, and we'll probably do more. It's a stimulus. It's to keep people employed, to keep small businesses open.

We just saved the airlines. We just put up 25 billion and 25 billion we're saving the airlines. They are paying a price for it, but we're saving the airlines. The airlines were doing the best business they've ever done, David, the best. And then one day, boom, they have no business left. I mean it's gone. So we just saved the airlines... the markets are working. It's a beautiful thing. 

Look, I think that you're gonna have a very, very terrific transition third quarter. I see it happening. The spirit I see now. People are calling. It's an incredible spirit that's going on, and I'm a person that believes in spirit because you need spirit for success.

Muir tried to turn the conversation away from corporations and back to people, who maybe haven't gotten their stimulus checks or their unemployment, or were eating donated food. Trump said he wanted to give unemployment money directly to the people, but "the Democrats wanted it to go through the system." And lots of states have old equipment that can't handle the process. 

You know, you have really well managed states in this country, and you have some that aren't so well managed, but they have the money. They have to get the money out. Again, I would have rather sent the money directly. They wanted it to go through the unemployment, through the system and exactly what I said. I told you, I told you a lot of people exactly what I said has happened in some cases, where the equipment can’t handle the money. But it's going to get out. That's the state's problem. But we’ll take over that problem if they don't get the money out soon.

He doesn't mention the delay in getting newly approved administrative money to the states, among other issues with getting all of the stimulus money out, because that wouldn't look good.

****Please put down any beverages before continuing****

But nothing would make his next answer look good. The question was "how difficult it has been to balance" projecting optimism and hope with honesty on how "dire" things would be.

It's a very good question and it's a very difficult situation, and I have a media that's extremely hostile. And they have been from before I got elected, you know that, that's why it was called a miracle because I had a hostile media, which Republicans do but I had more than any other -- you know, I even had a, you know, group of Republicans that have lost to me so badly they formed committees. They're a dying breed, but I've had tremendous lack of support from Democrats. They should -- we should all be in this together.

I thought the one thing this is different at -- and what I really thought much different. I thought the Democrats -- because this is a crisis. I thought the Democrats would come together and work with us. They really don't. I see Schumer, you know, the guy is a loser from New York. Schumer’s up there the other day. He doesn't know anything about testing, and he's on a show, and he's going testing, testing, testing. He didn't see charts like this, he doesn't see that. He probably knows. I'm sure he knows, but it's a soundbite. It's a political sound bite. 

They don't use the ventilators anymore now they use the testing but now we've solved testing better than any country in the world. And they should be saying, Great job, not use it as a sound bite when they know it's not true. It's not good. So the one thing I'm most disappointed with, I never expected much from the media and I have to say this, you are included in this group. I know some great journalists; you’ve been very fair to me. 

I know some great journalists, but I know the vast majority. I've seen things that are so bad and so corrupt and so dishonest. It's a shame, especially when it comes to something like this, because our country needs spirit. And they should be given them the facts as to the positive. They can report the positive, there is positive also. There’s horrible death that should have never happened. It should have never have been let out of China. It should have been stopped. It could have been stopped right there, when I talk about putting out the fires. They should have stopped it. 

They didn't. They didn't know how. They probably made a big mistake. Maybe it was in confidence, maybe it was they made a mistake. Whatever it was, it wasn't good. It was very unfortunate. And you got to understand, I had just made a tremendous trade deal months before with China, where they're paying us billions and billions of dollars a month. And I made that, but to me, this supersedes trade deals.

And when Muir asked whether there was an intelligence failure, that we "didn't know the scope of this," there was more about China, and no one agreeing with him on closing the border (although previously he said others said he had to), and more, and then there was this.

Now, at the same time, I want to be optimistic. I don't want to be Mr. Gloom and Doom. It's a very bad subject. I'm not looking to tell the American people when nobody really knows what's happening yet, Oh, this is going to be so tragic. I want to be -- aside from everything else, and I'm going to use a term, and some people love it. and some people hate it, but I love it. I want to be a cheerleader for our country. I don't want to be Mr. Doom and Gloom. So, here I am in January banning, at the same time, I want to be optimistic, but they have a thing -- for instance they do false ads. 

They said I called it a hoax. No, I called the Democrats a hoax because of what they were saying because when I did the ban they're out there saying -- they call me a racist because I did the ban. They called me xenophobic. Sleepy Joe Biden. He said he's xenophobic. He doesn't know what the word means. He’s xenophobic. That's a terrible thing to call somebody. Then four or five weeks later, he sent out a statement that he agreed with what I did, but nobody picked up the statement. Look, we have handled a very bad situation very well. 

We started off with very few medical supplies. By the way, in the military. We started off with a depleted military with no ammunition. My first week in the office I was told we have no ammunition. Now we have the greatest military we've ever built. $1.5 trillion, you know because you reported on it. Same thing with medical. The shelves were bare, the cupboards were bare. We built unbelievable ventilate -- the ventilators now are being built by the thousands. You know we're doing with ventilators now? We're helping Italy, France, Spain, Nigeria, various countries all over the world.

They're calling us for ventilators, and we have so many now that we're able to give them or do whatever deal we make, but I would say it's a great -- it's a great thing to help people in distress. They can't make ventilators. You know, it's a very complicated process. It’s a big machine, and a complex machine. We're giving these ventilators to people and countries all over the world. We've got more than we can use. Governor Cuomo said he needed 40,000 ventilators. I said you don't need that much, Dr. Birx said you don't need that much.

We gave him the amount that he needed which was about 4,000 and he actually gave some recently to Massachusetts where they needed a --We have so many ventilators now. And it was a bad word for -- Two months ago nobody thought a thing like this could happen. And it's companies like Honeywell and General Motors and General Electric and a lot of our greatest companies. 3M really came through in the end. 3M with the face masks and other things they’ve done. We have mobilized -- this is the greatest mobilization since World War Two. 

And I’ll tell you what, I don't need the credit. I should get credit, but I don't need the credit. Who should get the credit is FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and all of the millions of people that worked to get this done. You know, when we sailed the ship in, the comfort, we have the comfort and the mercy. The Mercy is in California, and they were very -- the governor there has been very gracious about it and other things too. But when we had the comfort come into New York harbor, we had a lot of doctors, they weren't expecting this. They were not set up for COVID-19. 

They were set up for regular things like car accidents and appendix and a lot of other things. We converted the ship over. When they didn't use it that much because frankly the numbers fortunately never hit a point where we needed it that much, those doctors and the doctors from the Javits Center went all over New York and parts of New Jersey, and they worked with other professionals. And the other professionals have told me to a T. Governor Cuomo told me, Mayor De Blasio told me...Your great governor of New Jersey... told me, he said these people were so professional it was un -- they'd walk into a room and everybody stood up. These are the medical professionals from the military... These are warriors. And just to finish. 

I watch and I see people walking into hospitals, and people from buildings, many, many different locations singing, and in some cases, you have people from Lincoln Center and from, you know, great musicians playing the horns and instruments. And I watch police and firemen applauding as they walk in, but I see things that I've never quite seen before I would imagine, other than actual warfare.  

Young men and women and some older and some doctors rushing through doors into a very dangerous building, a hospital, putting on outfits as the doors are opening and trying to get everything set. They're not outside taking their time. I'll tell you what, it's a beautiful thing to watch, David. I've never seen anything like it...

They are warriors... But you know what, the people of our country are warriors too. And that's what I'm saying, they have to think of themselves as warriors. We can't sit in a house for the next three years. We can't do it.

And how did the president respond to a question about what he'd say to the families who have lost loved ones?

I want to say: “I love you.” I want to say that we're doing everything we can. I also want to say that we're trying to project people over 60 years old. We're trying so hard and -- everything I've said today -- I'd like to preface it by saying, if you're 60 years old and especially if you're 60 or even less than that and you've had a heart condition or you've had diabetes or a problem of any kind -- it seeks out problems. This is a vicious -- it seeks out weakness, in terms of medical -- 

If somebody has any form of a heart problem or diabetes - anything - it seeks it out. It's a vicious, vicious virus. But I want to just say to the people that have lost family and have lost loved ones, and the people that have just suffered so badly, and just made it - and just made it - that we love you. We're with you. We're working with you. We're supplying vast amounts of money, like never before. We want that money to get to the people. and we want ‘em to get better. 

And we want them - you can never really come close to replacing, when you've lost some - no matter how well we do next year, I think our economy is going to be raging. It's going to be so good. No matter how well, those people can never ever replace somebody they love. But we're going to have something that they're going to be very proud of. And to the people that have lost someone, there's nobody - I don't sleep at night thinking about it. There's nobody that's taken it harder than me. But at the same time I have to get this enemy defeated. And that's what we're doing, David. That's what we're doing.

Finally, "if November becomes a referendum on your handling of the pandemic, are you comfortable with that?"

Well, I am and I'm not. You know, it's a very, it’s a very interesting thought. You know I’ve built the greatest economy and then it was turned off for good reason. We saved millions of lives by doing it. I think people are going to remember that. I think they're going to remember that I rebuilt the military, I think they're going to remember that I gave them the biggest tax cuts in history. I gave them the greatest regulation cuts by far in history. I've given them the best job numbers in history. I’ve rebuilt our military to a level it's never been built, I mean, look, I got for the veterans, I got Choice. They’ve been trying to get Choice for 50 years...

Nobody has ever done these things, and I've saved their second amendment. You wouldn't have a second amendment right now if it wasn't for me. And one other thing, I've always heard judges are the most important thing that a president can do. I set a record on judges. 252 judges. It's unthinkable. Every judge is so important.

252 judges, two Supreme Court justices. Nobody's ever done things like this. So, I hope it's not solely on what I've done here because this is a very, this is like rubber. It's very very amorphous. But you know what, I think in a certain way, and I hope I can say this to you in a couple of months. I think in a certain way maybe our best work has been on what we've done with COVID-19, but, but we haven't gotten- We haven't been treated properly.

Not me, the Army Corps of Engineers, FEMA, the medical people, the police, the nurses, - everybody, even the doctors, they haven't been treated properly. The job they've done is a miracle. We're low in morbidity, we're number one on testing, we’re number one - again - on ventilators and everything. Not number one, we're number one - there is no number two through ten. We're way ahead of every other country in the world, and very important - it's so important.

I think we're doing very well in vaccines, and we're doing very well therapeutically. I think we're gonna have some great answers and, hopefully by the next time we meet, we'll have some of those answers.

I encourage you to read through these responses a second time, if you're still reading now on the first go-round.

This is the person who was chosen by enough people to have become the president of the United States, using the process that we have to choose a president.

This is the person who is talking to our allies, and our enemies.

This is the person who is talking to you and me.

This is the person asking to be given another four years in office.

Sunday School Extra Credit 4/26/20

As I noted in yesterday's Sunday School, the classrooms were full of folks ready, willing and able to talk. Today, for extra credit, I want to hear from some folks not on the 'usual suspects' list. 

We've got Kevin Hassett, a senior economic advisor in the Trump administration talking with George Stephanopoulos This Week, and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and San Francisco Mayor London Breed talking with Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation,  We'll take them in that order. 

They started out talking about a 'v-shaped' recovery, which happens when there's a strong, fast, consumer-driven recovery after a sharp decline. Some folks, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, have predicted this is what we might see, while others disagree. Hassett says that folks will be aiming for that kind of recovery, and will need to work out how to get there, given that Dems and Reps have their own thoughts on that. And I guess whether the recovery is v-shaped or not, 

But make no mistake: it's a really grave situation, George. This is the biggest negative shock that our economy, I think, has ever seen. We're going to be looking at an unemployment rate that approaches rates that we saw during the Great Depression.

We're losing as many jobs every ten days or so as were lost during the Great Recession, so there's a lot of work to be done. But, it's not impossible; Hassett pointed to sharp differences between what happened in the past vs. what's happening now.

...When President Obama was elected, it was middle of December when they started to have the stimulus bill discussions with Congress and it was the middle of February when they passed it. We just did a major, major bill in a week, and that's because basically people care more about their country than the sort of nastiness in Washington that's covered on the news every day.

Given that it's basically the same people in Congress, including the leaders, are we to believe they only learned to care for their country when Trump got in office? They only care when it's an election year? They only care that it's small businesses, actual people, instead of big banks and large corporations? The possible explanations are endless, I think - including that without the Ds, the Rs can't get it done, but only the Rs get invited to the signing ceremonies. Sorry - riding a huge cynical wave today.

When George pointed out that things might be starting to fray, particularly noting Mitch McConnell's comments about letting states file bankruptcy, Hassett said that a lot of money has gone to the states already, but that since "it feels like the Constitution doesn't allow" for state bankruptcies, everyone's going to have to work things out, and the feds are going to have to help out.

George moved to talking about the debt, noting that while Trump has said he's "open to more aid" for the states and local governments, and he wants infrastructure spending, the Rs are starting to worry about the debt, and he asked Hassett if he was also concerned about that.

Oh, for sure...I think the debt level in the U.S. has climbed up to the point where in the economics literature, we see that it can be a sort of long run negative for growth. And so, for me, I think that as we go into the next phase of legislation, we need to think about long run things that we can do to try to get ahead of the curve on debt. So, for sure we need to do still some short run things but I think looking at long run changes that we can make to things to improve the debt situation, you know, that should be something that should be on the table.

There are lots of problems out there  still,  so the bipartisan action we've seen so far is good but it's going to get ugly. And he says we've managed to dodge a bullet or two so far, given the general stability of the markets and other indicators. And, finally, on whether we're "anywhere close to a new normal anytime soon?" In a nutshell, if people reopen while following the guidelines from Drs. Birx and Fauci, "we can maybe start to get back to normal."

Sticking with the economy, here are highlights of Brennan's conversation with BoA's Moynihan, which started with a question on the sustainability of deferring payments for customers, now that we're only days away from a new month and new payments due. Moynihan said

We have a million and a quarter customers, 1.25 million customers are asked-- asked for a deferral of payments and that will continue to go on for the-- for the near future and into the fall.

He also pointed to other things they're doing, including participating in the PPP, fee-free cashing of stimulus checks for non-customers, $100M in charitable giving, and $350M in community development financial assistance.

Brennan wondered about the next round of PPP, specifically whether mom-and-pops would have a better chance at getting help. Moynihan said that the first round they spend "largely went to small businesses" and that the next round, as long as there's funding for the program, everyone will get assistance. He also said 25% of the small businesses they help are in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods,and that they don't have more applications already than they can support with the new funding, around $50B worth. He also said

...I think it's clear that between Congress and the administration and the American people, we need to get all these funded and not make this a footrace. Just get the work done and get it through. And the work has to be done in a way that is-- supports American taxpayers who will ultimately pay for this and also gets the small business the money and gets the-- and has them pay their employees, which is a goal of the program.

On what things look like going forward, he sees "a deep recession environment in the second quarter, a less deep in the third quarter and then growth in the fourth quarter." And, he said, "our experts think it's late next year when the economy gets back to the same size it was prior to this." He does see some growth in consumer spending in certain areas, which is helpful - and he points to the stimulus payments, the PPP, unemployment insurance (which was bumped up by an extra $600 for four months) and the $1200 checks helping in that regard.

I was very interested in Brennan's next conversation; after all, the real battle against COVID-19 takes place at the local level, and everything is more personal there. San Francisco's Mayor Breed was the first to issue a shelter in place order, and he's added a mask order on top of that. Brennan wondered what he's seeing that others might not be.

It seems there are still many challenges, the biggest of which is making sure they look at the data and the facts from the public health experts, so they can make good decisions. But, he added

The challenges that we face still around PPE, around testing kits is just absolutely insane. We have known that this crisis was coming to our country for a long time now, and the fact that as of April, we're still having the same conversations about the challenges. I know that most cities are seeing the same data I'm seeing that if we do absolutely nothing, it gets worse. And so that's really why we have been really a lot more aggressive maybe than-- than other areas because we wanted to make sure that it doesn't.

His city could be overwhelmed - not enough beds, ICU rooms, or ventilators - if they do nothing or if they had done nothing, and that's the kind of thing "which should alarm any mayor in any city."

Brennan asked about the difficulty getting PPE, about some of it being diverted, and why he has such a hard time getting it. He said he had a shipment, things they had purchased from China, that were diverted to France, and that FEMA has confiscated some things as well. Customs is an issue - some stuff needs to come in via ship not plane, for example - and they've had to be really resourceful to get what they need.

But the fact is, this should be a federal coordinated effort. We should not still be having these conversations, which is a big reason why we have to put these shelter-in-place orders because we don't have the resources that we need to keep people safe, especially around testing.

They also talked about the news that the first COVID-19 death was someone from the Bay area, back on February 6th. Breed said it gives an indication that they really didn't have good facts when they first started announcing numbers. He mentioned his state's desire to do more testing of people who passed away earlier to determine if they were positive for the virus, citing a case originally not classified as a COVID-19 death until they found out that another person in the household was positive, and then testing confirmed that what they thought was a death due to heart attack was a positive case.

Brennan asked about the China travel ban, and how that might have impacted his city. Interestingly, he said they had been monitoring things since December, trying to prepare for what might happen there. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure I've seen that other cities had done so - and we know from reporting that there was less than optimal attention being paid nationally that early.

We set in place a declaration of emergency back in February. We operated our emergency operations center because of those relationships between people who live in San Francisco and their relatives and their friends in various parts of China. And we had experienced, sadly, a lot of xenophobia against our Chinese community early on. I mean, basically, Chinatown was a ghost town in the month of January. And so, we had been keeping an eye on this--and making adjustments in order to prepare our city for what we knew was actually coming here.

Breed said it's likely that the shelter-in-place order, set to expire on Sunday, will be continued. The most recent data from the San Francisco Chronicle shows that the Bay Area has had 7,499 cases and 260 deaths. For the city of San Francisco, the counts are 1,424 cases and 23 deaths.

So - three perspectives: an administration guy, a big banker, and a city mayor. The one thing that's clear in this Extra Credit? No one thinks we're done yet.

We're not done fighting the virus, we're not done fighting the bureaucracy, we're not done with efforts to keep small businesses alive, and we're not really anywhere near done with the economic impact.

And, of course, we're not done washing our hands, wearing our masks, and keeping our distance.

See you around the virtual campus.