Poll Watch: Ratings Through the Roof!

It seems it's been a while since we looked at any polling data, so I thought it was time to dive in again and share what other people are thinking.

For starters, let's look at a CNN poll from earlier this month. Here's the small print: The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from May 7-10, 2020 among a sample of 1,112 respondents. The landline total respondents were 435 and there were 677 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.7 at the 95% confidence level.

The survey tracks responses by gender (M/F only); race (white/non-white); age (18-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65+, under 45; 45 and up); college grad (Y/N), and whites by college grad or non-college grad. In addition, there're party affiliation breakdowns (Democrat, Independent/Other, and Republican); leaning Democrat or Republican; politics (liberal, moderate, or conservative); voter registration (Y/N), and sense of the outbreak (worst is behind us, or worst is yet to come).

We know much all politicians, but the president in particular, are driven by public opinion. I mean, who else will spend time while coping with a pandemic to talk about his Facebook ratings? I think he might not be quite happy with this survey, though.  Here are a few quick highlights:

• 45% of respondents approve of how the president's doing his job, while 51% disapprove, giving him a -6 net score. On the plus side? His approval has ticked up 1% since the April survey. Only four of the demographic cohorts show an approval rate of over 50%: non-college educated whites (57%), whites (53%), folks aged 35-49 (53%), and men (51%).
• However, only 42% approve of how he's handling the coronavirus outbreak, with 55% disapproving, for a -13 net score; the approval dropped 3% since last month. And only two cohorts, non-college educated whites (56%) and whites (51%) pass the 50% threshold here.
• And finally, he's way underwater, by -26, on whether people trust the information they get from him on the coronavirus outbreak: 62% do not trust what he says, compared to only 36% that do. 

Let's look a little deeper, starting with the 'trust' question. It's not like we don't trust anybody - although, you might think that looking at social media, where it often seems that no one trusts science, data, or facts. But, according to the survey, we do trust  what Dr. Anthony Fauci (+47), the CDC (+52), and even CNN (+15) tell us. However, as is the case with the president himself, folks don't trust Fox News (-23) when it comes to coronavirus information.

And of course, the folks at Fox News and in the GOP are ramping up their efforts to create doubt in the Fauci. trust metric. For example, yesterday during Fauci's remote appearance at a Senate hearing, Kentucky's Rand Paul said this.

As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person that gets to make a decision. We can listen to your advice, but there are people on the other side saying there’s not going to be a surge, that we can safely reopen the economy, and the facts will bear this out.

Fauci's response?

I have never made myself out to be the end-all and only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence.

And later, there was this, from Tucker Carlson, suggesting that some thought Fauci should be a dictator or something, and that he was a buffoon, and pointing out that he wasn't elected to anything. So, the one thing I can say for sure? The president has seen this survey, and has seen that he's 42 points underwater on trust compared to Fauci (62% don't trust vs 20%) - so now's a good time for the minions to attack.

One more note: demographically, Fauci kills it. Gender, age group, race, education level, income level, voter registration - he has a net positive in every single one of them. Not only that, but more than half of Republicans (61%), Independents (61%), conservatives (56%), people who think the worst is behind us (60%) and even those who think the worst is yet to come (74%) trust him.

What else does the survey show?

• Most people - 60% - don't personally know anyone who's been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the number who do is on the rise. In the survey taken April 3-7, only 22% knew someone who had been diagnosed; in the latest, it's up to 40%. 

• The percentage of folks thinking that the worst of this darn thing is behind us is moving in a positive direction. In April, only 17% thought that, while in the new survey, it's  up to 44%. But still, more than half - 52% - think the worst is yet to come. 

Respondents are not particularly happy with how the federal government is handling things.  

• In the April and May surveys, more than 50% of respondents said the feds are doing a poor job, and over the course of four surveys, the percentage of people who say a good job is being done hasn't reached 50%. 

• Most respondents are at least 'concerned' (with fewer 'afraid') about some specific issues related to the virus. Take a look.

• And, what do folks think about how the government is handling those issues? Not good, as you can see below. With one exception, more people than not think the feds aren't doing enough, and on three of the remaining four issues, more than 55% have that opinion. (Comically, it's pretty much a split decision on cleaning supplies...)

If you were the president, would you be thrilled with these numbers, or would you be trying to deflect, dissuade, and deny that any issues even exist? If you said the latter, you've hit the nail on the head.

You understand his crazy tweetstorms, and why he's talking about the Obama administration, and about the wall, and about nasty questions at press conferences, and about Mother's Day... anything to avoid addressing how unappreciated he and his team's efforts really are, at a time when all he really wants is to be appreciated.

I'll have some more polling data in the next couple of days.