Poll Watch: November 2020

As promised, here's another review of some recent polling, this time focusing on the November election.

First up? Rasmussen Reports has some data on what folks think of the presidential candidates. But first - the small print, or at least as much as I can see without being a subscriber: one telephone and online survey of 1000 likely voters was taken May 12-13; another similar survey was done May 11 - 12.

In May 12 -13 survey, respondents were asked whether it was very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, and whether the Rs should find someone other than him to be the nominee.

A huge percentage of all likely voters  - 87% -say Trump is likely to be the guy; 74% say it's very likely. I'm not exactly sure what they think is going to happen between now and November that would keep him from leading the ticket, but I guess you never know. And, 45% of all likely voters surveyed said that the GOP should find someone else, with an equal percentage saying no, and another 11% undecided.

Likely Republican voters are a bit more supportive of the president, with 95% saying he's the likely nominee and 85% saying it's very likely he'll be the one. However, 23% of likely Republican voters think the GOP should find someone else, with 7% undecided and 70% who think he's the right guy.

On the other side of things (from the May 11-12 survey) 28% of Democratic voters think their party should find someone else; 54% disagree, and 18% are not sure. Obviously, with the allegations  against Biden in the headlines (and on the banner of Fox News for days), there's some reason to at least think that maybe, possibly, in some topsy-turvy universe, there could be enough momentum for a 'draft someone else' type of movement, but that's very unlikely. In fact, it's so unlikely that 92% of Dems think it's likely - and 77% think it's very likely - that Papa Joe will be the nominee.

Next up? Recent Emerson College polling from Texas, Ohio, and California. And what do we learn here?  Well, for starters, Trump has a "slight advantage" in the first two states, and is the one most people expect to win in November. California's really only a little different.

First, Texas:

• Trump has a net +2 approval rating (46% approve, 44% disapprove);
• he leads Papa Joe 47% to 41% among voters who have decided who they're going to vote for, and by 52% to 48% when undecideds are included; and
• 61% expect Trump to be re-elected.

And from Ohio:

• Trump's approval rating is +3 (48% approve, 45% disapprove);
• he leads Biden 46% - 43%, but 51% to 49% when the undecided voters are included; and
• 62% think Trump will be re-elected.

Finally, California:

• Trump approval rating is underwater, with a net -29 (30% approve, 59% disapprove);
• by a similar margin - 59% to 29% - voters prefer Biden over Trump; with undecideds in the mix, Biden leads 65% to 35%: but
• only 54% think he's going to beat Trump. 

Other fun stuff in this survey? 

• Trump voters are more excited or extremely excited than Biden voters. On this issue, Trump leads in Texas by +27 (67% of his voters are extremely or very excited, while only 40% of Biden's are); in Ohio it's +31 (70% really excited for Trump, 39% for Biden) and in California, he's at +7 (55% really excited about Trump, 48% similarly excited for Biden).
• In some weird coronavirus quarantine alternate reality, 48% of Dems in Ohio, 51% of Dems in Texas, and 46% of Dems in California would prefer my Sonofa Gov, Andrew Cuomo, to Biden. They don't know him as well as I do.
• Senator Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are the leaders for Biden's veepstakes. Warren, with 29% of Ohio Dems and 34% of Texas Dems preferring Warren, while in California 25% want it to be their own Senator Kamala Harris, who finishes second in the other two states. 

So, I'm curious, is there anything unexpected in any of this, or do things look about as you expected?