Sunday School Extra Credit 5/3/20

In our Sunday School post this week, we heard from five governors In this Extra Credit post, we'll give the medical folks their turn.

First up? Dr. Deborah Birx, who talked with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. Now Birx has been a regular on the shows, replacing Dr. Fauci as the face of Trump's medical and household disinfectant task force, so we'll move here stuff pretty quickly. (As an aside, I miss Dr. Fauci.)

• She thinks the gating criteria and the phased reopening guidelines are a "pretty firm policy" even though no state has met them and many are reopening anyway. And she said that states have been asked to make all of their data public, including where they are with the gating criteria. She pointed to Florida, a state that has had issues around reporting COVID-19 data, as a example of a state doing that right.
• Protesting without masks is "devastatingly worrisome" to her personally, and people need to protect each other while voicing discontent. We'll have to see if that happens; it seems unlikely based on what we've seen so far.
• On paper, at least, it's possible there'll be a vaccine by January of 2021, by moving forward with multiple candidates and compressing the phases without sacrificing safety. But, "it's whether we can execute, and execute around the globe."  

Next up we have Dr. Tom Inglesby talking with Chuck Todd on MTP. Inglesby's from the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He expressed some concern about states moving forward, while recognizing that they're not all the same from a COVID-19 standpoint. He focused on areas being able to "rapidly isolate and trace contacts" and diagnose everyone who has symptoms of the virus as being the 'least risky" places to begin reopening. He said it's going to be two or three weeks before we'll know the impact of the reopening, due to the incubation period of the virus.

He said that "it's like a patchwork across the country" in terms of access to and "the operations around" testing, in contrast to what the White House has maintained. He noted in some places the percentage of people testing positive is very low, while in others it's very high, and said "that's worrisome." And more diagnostic testing is important because we're not capturing the mildly or moderately sick folks now, so we "can't break their chains of transmission."

Finally, on whether he's worried about a "bad fall outcome" if we don't see advancements on treatment or a vaccine, Inglesby is worried even before we get to fall. 

Nothing has changed in the underlying dynamics of this virus. If we stop social distancing all together tomorrow, we would recreate the conditions that existed in the country in February and March. So what we need to do is continue, to our best possible effort, all the individual efforts we're making around social distancing...the extent to which we're able to do that over the next couple of months will dictate how we do as states and as a country.

Because, as he reminded us, in the fall we'll still have COVID and we'll have the flu, at the same time, and together they'll impact hospitalizations, and

...I don't think people should think that there will be a lull. That just because the summer's coming we're going to have a lull before the fall. It'd be wonderful if that happens. But I don't think we should at all assume that at this point given the nature of this virus. 

Dr. Ingelsby was not the only expert sitting down with Chuck; he also talked with Dr. Scott Harris from the Alabama Department of Public Health and Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, who's with the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

Harris said that they reopened in Alabama in a very gradual way, not a full 'phase 1' thing like was in the WH guidelines, given how things were going there. He also said that testing is "really unevenly distributed" with folks in rural areas facing more barriers, such as transportation or access to a health care provider.

In Michigan, Dr. Khaldun said, they have seen burdens on hospitals, capacity not being where it needs to be and testing also falling a little short. He's "cautiously optimistic" but they "need to be very careful." They're looking at regional data on a daily basis, tracking outbreaks, and also paying attention to hospital capacity and what not - basically, every region of the state is different.

Chuck asked them if they were feeling pressure to move things along and speed things up. While Khaldun said no, Harris said the pressure is "significant," noting that lots of folks in his state don't have an option to make a living now, and they need to try and "balance the health of the economy with the health of average Alabamians." He agreed that, with Georgia being more aggressive with reopening, they have to be careful and he plans to watch what happens there closely. And, he said,

...we certainly will consider dialing things back if we see an increase in cases... I think that's the approach - that probably all states would want to take.

And finally, Chuck had Sir John Bell, from Oxford University to talk about a vaccine that's being tested there that shows some promise - and is ahead of some of the other vaccine projects. Referring to a colleague saying there was an 80% chance their vaccine would be "at least somewhat successful, in the next year," Bell was a little bit more circumspect. He said that was high, but the likelihood of success goes up every day.

They're looking to start some human trials, so they need to be able to test where there are outbreaks. Bell said there's no shortage of disease in the UK, and they've already given the vaccine to around 1,000 people, but they want to ramp up quickly.

We've consolidated a phase one and two programs because we are pretty confident that the vector itself is safe because it's been used in about 5,000 people already up to now. So that's allowed us to really accelerate the phase one program, and we hope that there would be enough disease that we would get evidence that the vaccine has efficacy by the beginning of June.

Chuck wondered if there was any chance their drug could be used as a therapeutic if it doesn't work as a vaccine, or how helpful the therapeutics like remdesivir are in terms of developing a vaccine.
Bell said remdesivir works completely differently than what they're doing, so there's probably no connection between them, but "both could be helpful steps" to get the virus under control.

On whether everyone's going too fast, and if safety protocols could be overlooked and what's being done to prevent that, Bell said that the efficacy of the vaccine, to generate "strong antibody responses" is good, but "the real question is whether the safety profile's going to be fine." And that's what the clinical studies focus on. They did all the preclinical work, he said, including "mouse, ferret, primate" tests which it sounds like some others might not have done.

And now, we're being very careful in the clinic to try and monitor exactly what's happening. But, you know, that doesn't mean there won't be safety signals, because there may well be. And we'll be on the alert to see if we can see them.

He said that there'll be data on the primate tests this week, referring to it as "an important milestone." After that, they'll look to see whether the vaccine worked to "largely eliminate" the disease in test group compared to a placebo group. 

...we'll probably get a signal based on current levels of the disease. We'll probably get a signal in early June. We're ready to move trials overseas if the disease peters out in the U.K. So we've got sites already in play in other bits of the world where it's active. So we're pretty sure we'll get a signal by June about whether this works or not.

And whether this will be like the annual flu vaccine, or just used to protect against this particular coronavirus, Bell said

... I suspect we may need to have relatively regular vaccinations against coronaviruses going into the future. That... of course remains to be seen, but that's my bet at the moment, is that this is likely to be a seasonal coronavirus vaccine.

 So, there you have it, from a host of experts:

• reopening is going to happen (hopefully carefully and with respect the relevant regional data), whether we're ready for it or not;
• we're not going to see a national policy on who can do what when, all we have are the guidelines we've already been given;
• there's a chance we'll see a vaccine sooner than later, although we don't know what kind it is; and
• we must continue to practice social distancing for the foreseeable future. 

You know the drill - wash your hands, cover your face, keep your distance - and I'll see you around the virtual campus.

Sunday School 5/3/20

Today's Sunday School gives the politicians a chance to talk with us about the coronavirus, reopening their states, and so on. This week, we'll have at least one Extra Credit post which will allow the medical professionals have a chance to chime in on things. There's probably enough for a second Extra Credit to handle the overflow from today - we'll see how it goes.

So, we've got five governors (yikes!) making virtual classroom visits - so let's get started withMississippi Republican Tate Reeves  and New Jersey Democrat Phil Murphy, who talked with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday.

Mississippi was getting ready to lift its 'safer-at-home order on Friday, until they saw a spike in new cases. Turns out, Reeves said, the spike of nearly 400 cases that was reported Friday morning stemmed in part from a large number of tests "that came in from out-of-state private labs" and now they're back down to a more reasonable 110 new cases today. That explanation aside, though, Wallace noted that Mississippi still hasn't met the White House guidelines to begin the first phase of reopening.

Mississippi is different than other states, Reeves explained. He's talked with the Task Force, with Dr. Birx, and they agree that "sometimes the models are just different for different states." He said that the gating criteria from the Task Force don't really work for them, and that over the past 40 days or so, they've had pretty consistent case numbers without any spikes other than Friday's "data dump."

They did have some protests in very red Mississippi, but Reeves said most of them probably voted for him last year, and that they "were protesting for the 200,000 Mississippians that have lost their jobs in the last six weeks." And, he said, "I understand and I feel their pain, and we're doing everything in our power to get our state back open as soon as possible."

They also talked about a move by the Republican-controlled legislature, which wants to strip Reeves of his sole authority to spend $1B in federal aid the state received under the CARES Act. Reeves said it was "an absolute tragedy" that his own party was pulling a power grab

in the middle of an emergency. We have had long- standing, 40-year laws in Mississippi which recognized that in an emergency, you've got to have an executive. You've got to have someone that makes decisions and gets things done.

Reeves said he's still looking at whether a veto is in order, but said they "don't have time for committee meetings... we don't have time for politicians to cut deals." Instead, they need to get the money into people's pockets. Either way, he's "deeply disappointed" in them.

Gov. Murphy has different issues in NJ. The state is locked down, with parks and some golf courses (but not beaches) being allowed to open this weekend. Wallace wondered if Murphy will be in the position to reopen the state by Memorial Day. Murphy said "Listen, I'll be the happiest guy in New Jersey, if not America, if we are" but noted it's still too early to tell. He pointed to "very high" compliance with social distancing, and that's the kind of thing that they'll need to keep seeing to "get the best outcome" by Memorial Day. 

Wallace wondered about his state's protesters, and he said "I wished they'd do it virtually and not unsafely," noting they were out there without masks. But, he added. 

... -- we've got to make our decisions based on the science, the data, the facts. And they all suggest, as you -- as you rightfully point out, we're not out of this yet. Now the -- the fatalities, bless their souls, we have to point out are folks who were infected some number of weeks ago. So, in the here and now, hospitalizations are down, ventilator use is down, the positive curve -- testing curve is flattening. So those are all good signs. But we're not in the end zone yet.

As with Mississippi, Wallace noted that NJ hasn't meet the gating criteria, and that, as far as they can tell, no state has. He wondered whether Murphy thought his fellow govs were jumping the gun. Murphy said "my nose is pressed against the New Jersey glass, honestly," so he can't speak to what the other folks are basing their decision on, but he pointed out that his is the densest state in the densest area in the country, so they're making regional decisions and have to be "exceedingly careful."

As is required, I guess, he was glowingly complimentary about the president and getting assistance "in our hour of need" as far as supplies and PPE. Wallace wondered about the whole question of state aid, noting that Murphy had said "it's going to be Armageddon" if they don't get federal aid. Murphy was clear.

We need a big slug of federal, direct cash assistance. And it's not -- not just New Jersey and it's not just blue states... It clearly would be a huge win for the residents who are being served. It would be a huge win for those first- line responders and their families, working families. I think, frankly, it's a huge win for the president to be able to say, you know what, with this cash assistance, we were able to keep serving folks across the country in both red and blue states, and we kept folks employed at a time where we desperately need to keep folks employed.

We'll see if that's enough honey for the president to support the move.

Meanwhile, on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Martha Raddatz talked with Ohio's Republican gov Mike DeWine. He's taking a phased reopening approach, bringing manufacturing, construction and some offices up first, then restaurants and retail after that. Raddatz noted his data shows a few days of downward curve, and a million residents file for unemployment. She wanted to know how he's balancing the competing risks.

DeWine's approach is to do two things at once - be very careful, continuing social distance and face covering requirements, but also start getting things opened back up. He mentioned having business groups figure out what would work for them, having them participate in the discussions and develop best practices for their sectors.

So we’re balancing it. We’re going to keep our eye on the numbers. We’ve had a fairly flat -- really for about two weeks with hospitalizations and that we’re certainly going to continue to keep an eye on that.

All employees will be required to cover their faces, regardless of sector, but customers will not have that same requirement, even though the gov "high recommends" they wear some kind of face covering. That was one of the orders that was reversed; he said they were issuing them very quickly but listened when people expressed different opinions.

Raddatz noted some polling that "Democrats are more concerned about contracting the virus while Republicans respondents would be more likely to get out if and when the rules change. Republicans are twice as likely to eat a restaurant, work out at a gym, and get a haircut...three times as likely to attend a sporting event, and four times as likely to stay in a hotel." She wondered what DeWine thought about the partisan divide. 

He said he wasn't really sure, but noted, "I think generally Republicans are less inclined to have the government tell them what to do," noting that's his philosophy for the most part but "we're in a health crisis" and so now, it's basically up to "individual Ohioans" and how they react and whether they'll continue to practice social distancing and stuff.

Jake Tapper talked with Michigan Democrat Gretchen Whitmer on CNN's State of the Union, where the conversation started with the protests we've heard so much about. She said she knows folks - including her - are unhappy about the stay-at-home orders, but the medical experts have to be listened to, and "displays like the one that we saw at our capital is not representative of who we are in Michigan."

There were swastikas and Confederate Flags and nooses and people with assault rifles. And that's the very - that's a small group of people, when you think about the fact that this is a state of almost 10 million people, the vast majority of whom are doing the right thing. And that's why we have seen our curve get pushed down.

Lives have been saved, the said; folks have to "not listen to the partisan rhetoric or these political rallies, or tweets, for that matter. We have to keep doing the right thing, the next right thing."

Tapper asked about the president calling the protesters "very good people," similar to what he said in reference to the Charlottesville protests, and wondered about that. She said that some of the "outrageousness" that happened "depicted some of the worst racism and awful parts of our history" and made the point that, in a global pandemic, we can't just negotiate ourselves out of it. And,

Whether you agree with me or not, I'm working to protect your life if you live in the state of Michigan. I'm going to continue to do my job, regardless of what tweets come out or what polls come out or what people think that is -- makes sense.

Tapper asked whether Whitmer agreed with Jared Kushner's assessment on testing that "the biggest thing holding us back is not supplies or capacity. It's the states' ability to collect more samples." Whitmer said that wasn't true; she and her counterparts "have never been able to get to full capacity because we are missing things in the supply chain. And that's part of why I think so many of us on both sides of the aisle have really called on more of a national strategy on these fronts."

Tapper wrapped up the conversation asking some questions about Joe Biden. Whitmer has said that she believes Biden, but she also believed Christine Blasey Ford, who didn't have contemporaneous accounts of what happened, which Tara Reade, Biden's accuser, has. Whitmer, "as a survivor and as a feminist," said victims need to be able to tell their stories, but that the stories have to be vetted. She's paid attention to Biden's defense. she's read a lot about the allegation, and she believes Biden when he says it didn't happen. And, she added, 

I really resent the fact that, every time a case comes up, all of us survivors have to weigh in. It is reopening wounds. And it is -- take us at our word, ask us for our opinion, and let's move on.

She wasn't criticizing Tapper, she said, but was sharing "some of the simmering anger" that survivors have every time they have to chime in on something they weren't involved in. And she reiterated that she believes and supports Biden.  

And finally, we've got Republican Larry Hogan of Maryland, who also sat down with Tapper. Their conversation started with something Larry Kudlow, Trump's economic advisor, said about there being a pause, where folks are not really sure what's next in terms of future help to citizens, states or cities. Hogan said he wasn't sure what to make of that, noting that "the message seems to sort of change almost on a daily, sometimes several times a day. I think we're making progress" on getting a fourth stimulus package, to help the states and to help people who need it, and that all the divisiveness and partisanship can be put aside. Proving the point, Tapper brought up sanctuary cities and states, mistakenly saying that Baltimore was on such city. Hogan corrected him, and also said 

So, exactly what I'm talking about though, Jake. There are people, the Democrats are saying, we'll do it if we get this additional funding for these other things. The Republicans in the Senate are saying, we'll do it if we get these other liability issues for businesses. Now the White House is talking about sanctuary cities. And I think everybody ought to stop talking about all of those things and just focus on getting people the help that they need without bringing all these other, you know, outside political issues into the debate. It's no time for divisive politics. It's time to get something done.

They talked about Hogan having supplies under guard, supplies that were flown in via passenger jet from South Korea to Baltimore's airport instead of to Dulles for fear that the federal government might confiscate them. Hogan said it was done because he had heard from his colleagues that they had supplies intercepted or diverted by the feds and he didn't want that to happen here, but that he's "working together with the federal government" and FEMA is going a great job. "It's not a concern any longer but honestly it was an issue that we were looking at as we flew them in."

The last part we'll cover here relates to protesters, several of whom "trekked more than 150 miles" to protest on both sides of Maryland on Saturday, and also about comments made by one of Hogan's fellow Republicans, Congressman Andy Harris, who said at the protest

I didn't wake up in Communist China and I didn't wake up in North Korea this morning. And tomorrow morning I should be able to go to the church of my choice and worship the way I choose. 

Tapper gave Hogan a chance to respond both to the protests, and Harris's comments. Hogan supports people being able to protest, noting "a couple of dozen people did so yesterday" and they "have every right to do that," He also noted

Sadly, we had far more people die yesterday in Maryland than we had protesters. 

Congressman Harris, I'm not sure where he woke up yesterday morning but maybe he confused North Korea and South Korea. South Korea is doing a great job on testing and we just saved the lives of thousands of Marylanders by getting those half million tests from Korea..he's obviously got the right to say whatever crazy things he wants to say. But, you know, I don't really need to respond to them.

As they say on that TV game show, "good answer!"

I hope you all took advantage, to the fullest allowed or recommended by your local and state politicians, of this beautiful day.  Keep social distancing, keep washing your hands, keep covering your face, and we'll keep flattening the curve together.

Don't forget to get your extra credit this week- and I'll see you around the virtual campus.

Sunday School Extra Credit 4/26/20

As I noted in yesterday's Sunday School, the classrooms were full of folks ready, willing and able to talk. Today, for extra credit, I want to hear from some folks not on the 'usual suspects' list. 

We've got Kevin Hassett, a senior economic advisor in the Trump administration talking with George Stephanopoulos This Week, and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and San Francisco Mayor London Breed talking with Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation,  We'll take them in that order. 

They started out talking about a 'v-shaped' recovery, which happens when there's a strong, fast, consumer-driven recovery after a sharp decline. Some folks, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, have predicted this is what we might see, while others disagree. Hassett says that folks will be aiming for that kind of recovery, and will need to work out how to get there, given that Dems and Reps have their own thoughts on that. And I guess whether the recovery is v-shaped or not, 

But make no mistake: it's a really grave situation, George. This is the biggest negative shock that our economy, I think, has ever seen. We're going to be looking at an unemployment rate that approaches rates that we saw during the Great Depression.

We're losing as many jobs every ten days or so as were lost during the Great Recession, so there's a lot of work to be done. But, it's not impossible; Hassett pointed to sharp differences between what happened in the past vs. what's happening now.

...When President Obama was elected, it was middle of December when they started to have the stimulus bill discussions with Congress and it was the middle of February when they passed it. We just did a major, major bill in a week, and that's because basically people care more about their country than the sort of nastiness in Washington that's covered on the news every day.

Given that it's basically the same people in Congress, including the leaders, are we to believe they only learned to care for their country when Trump got in office? They only care when it's an election year? They only care that it's small businesses, actual people, instead of big banks and large corporations? The possible explanations are endless, I think - including that without the Ds, the Rs can't get it done, but only the Rs get invited to the signing ceremonies. Sorry - riding a huge cynical wave today.

When George pointed out that things might be starting to fray, particularly noting Mitch McConnell's comments about letting states file bankruptcy, Hassett said that a lot of money has gone to the states already, but that since "it feels like the Constitution doesn't allow" for state bankruptcies, everyone's going to have to work things out, and the feds are going to have to help out.

George moved to talking about the debt, noting that while Trump has said he's "open to more aid" for the states and local governments, and he wants infrastructure spending, the Rs are starting to worry about the debt, and he asked Hassett if he was also concerned about that.

Oh, for sure...I think the debt level in the U.S. has climbed up to the point where in the economics literature, we see that it can be a sort of long run negative for growth. And so, for me, I think that as we go into the next phase of legislation, we need to think about long run things that we can do to try to get ahead of the curve on debt. So, for sure we need to do still some short run things but I think looking at long run changes that we can make to things to improve the debt situation, you know, that should be something that should be on the table.

There are lots of problems out there  still,  so the bipartisan action we've seen so far is good but it's going to get ugly. And he says we've managed to dodge a bullet or two so far, given the general stability of the markets and other indicators. And, finally, on whether we're "anywhere close to a new normal anytime soon?" In a nutshell, if people reopen while following the guidelines from Drs. Birx and Fauci, "we can maybe start to get back to normal."

Sticking with the economy, here are highlights of Brennan's conversation with BoA's Moynihan, which started with a question on the sustainability of deferring payments for customers, now that we're only days away from a new month and new payments due. Moynihan said

We have a million and a quarter customers, 1.25 million customers are asked-- asked for a deferral of payments and that will continue to go on for the-- for the near future and into the fall.

He also pointed to other things they're doing, including participating in the PPP, fee-free cashing of stimulus checks for non-customers, $100M in charitable giving, and $350M in community development financial assistance.

Brennan wondered about the next round of PPP, specifically whether mom-and-pops would have a better chance at getting help. Moynihan said that the first round they spend "largely went to small businesses" and that the next round, as long as there's funding for the program, everyone will get assistance. He also said 25% of the small businesses they help are in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods,and that they don't have more applications already than they can support with the new funding, around $50B worth. He also said

...I think it's clear that between Congress and the administration and the American people, we need to get all these funded and not make this a footrace. Just get the work done and get it through. And the work has to be done in a way that is-- supports American taxpayers who will ultimately pay for this and also gets the small business the money and gets the-- and has them pay their employees, which is a goal of the program.

On what things look like going forward, he sees "a deep recession environment in the second quarter, a less deep in the third quarter and then growth in the fourth quarter." And, he said, "our experts think it's late next year when the economy gets back to the same size it was prior to this." He does see some growth in consumer spending in certain areas, which is helpful - and he points to the stimulus payments, the PPP, unemployment insurance (which was bumped up by an extra $600 for four months) and the $1200 checks helping in that regard.

I was very interested in Brennan's next conversation; after all, the real battle against COVID-19 takes place at the local level, and everything is more personal there. San Francisco's Mayor Breed was the first to issue a shelter in place order, and he's added a mask order on top of that. Brennan wondered what he's seeing that others might not be.

It seems there are still many challenges, the biggest of which is making sure they look at the data and the facts from the public health experts, so they can make good decisions. But, he added

The challenges that we face still around PPE, around testing kits is just absolutely insane. We have known that this crisis was coming to our country for a long time now, and the fact that as of April, we're still having the same conversations about the challenges. I know that most cities are seeing the same data I'm seeing that if we do absolutely nothing, it gets worse. And so that's really why we have been really a lot more aggressive maybe than-- than other areas because we wanted to make sure that it doesn't.

His city could be overwhelmed - not enough beds, ICU rooms, or ventilators - if they do nothing or if they had done nothing, and that's the kind of thing "which should alarm any mayor in any city."

Brennan asked about the difficulty getting PPE, about some of it being diverted, and why he has such a hard time getting it. He said he had a shipment, things they had purchased from China, that were diverted to France, and that FEMA has confiscated some things as well. Customs is an issue - some stuff needs to come in via ship not plane, for example - and they've had to be really resourceful to get what they need.

But the fact is, this should be a federal coordinated effort. We should not still be having these conversations, which is a big reason why we have to put these shelter-in-place orders because we don't have the resources that we need to keep people safe, especially around testing.

They also talked about the news that the first COVID-19 death was someone from the Bay area, back on February 6th. Breed said it gives an indication that they really didn't have good facts when they first started announcing numbers. He mentioned his state's desire to do more testing of people who passed away earlier to determine if they were positive for the virus, citing a case originally not classified as a COVID-19 death until they found out that another person in the household was positive, and then testing confirmed that what they thought was a death due to heart attack was a positive case.

Brennan asked about the China travel ban, and how that might have impacted his city. Interestingly, he said they had been monitoring things since December, trying to prepare for what might happen there. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure I've seen that other cities had done so - and we know from reporting that there was less than optimal attention being paid nationally that early.

We set in place a declaration of emergency back in February. We operated our emergency operations center because of those relationships between people who live in San Francisco and their relatives and their friends in various parts of China. And we had experienced, sadly, a lot of xenophobia against our Chinese community early on. I mean, basically, Chinatown was a ghost town in the month of January. And so, we had been keeping an eye on this--and making adjustments in order to prepare our city for what we knew was actually coming here.

Breed said it's likely that the shelter-in-place order, set to expire on Sunday, will be continued. The most recent data from the San Francisco Chronicle shows that the Bay Area has had 7,499 cases and 260 deaths. For the city of San Francisco, the counts are 1,424 cases and 23 deaths.

So - three perspectives: an administration guy, a big banker, and a city mayor. The one thing that's clear in this Extra Credit? No one thinks we're done yet.

We're not done fighting the virus, we're not done fighting the bureaucracy, we're not done with efforts to keep small businesses alive, and we're not really anywhere near done with the economic impact.

And, of course, we're not done washing our hands, wearing our masks, and keeping our distance.

See you around the virtual campus.

Sunday School 4/5/20

Today I'm going to devote the whole lesson to the classroom with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. 

First up? The Surgeon General, Vice Admiral Jerome Adams, who also visited another classroom today. Let's start there, with Wallace asked how bad things are going to get for us, how long the darn epidemic is going to last here. Adams didn't pull any punches.

Well, it's tragically fitting that we're talking at the beginning of Holy Week because this is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans' lives, frankly. This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it's not going to be localized. It's going to be happening all over the country. And I want American to understand that.  

He also emphasized that we all have the power to change the trajectory, and

...I want Americans to understand that as hard as this week is going to be, there is a light at the end of the tunnel if everyone does their part for the next 30 days...there is hope. But we've got to all do out part. 

They talked about mitigation efforts, with Wallace noting there are still nine states without stay-at-home orders. He shared some of the president's comments, including that "the states we're talking about are not in jeopardy." Is he wrong, Wallace asked? 

Adams said over 90% of the country is under stay-at-home orders, and that they've been balancing states rights and the federal government's role, pointing to the uproar at the suggestion of a quarantine in the NYC area. He reiterated that he'd ask the nine governors to give us whatever they can over the next several days, a week or two, to help us get us to the other side of the peak.

Wallace asked whether Adams is "comfortable with people taking an unproven untested drug, (referring to hydroxychloroquine) even people who don't have the virus?" Adams noted it's all about the desire to help however they can.

And the last question was on masks (you can watch Adams demonstrates how to make one here), including this bizarre comment by the president (there's always one of those isn't there?), about greeting "presidents, prime ministers, dictators, kings, queens.... I don't know. Somehow I don't see it for myself." 

Does that statement from Trump send a mixed message, Wallace wondered? It's voluntary, Adams noted, and there are people who are making sure the president is practicing social distancing (even though we watch him ignore the rules daily) but, he said, the mask is not to protect you, it's to protect your neighbor.

And so we shall wear masks when we go out. 

Next up was philanthropist Bill Gates, in a taped interview.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation  has pledged $100M to fight the coronavirus. Five years ago, Gates predicted that missiles wouldn't be our biggest threat - microbes would be. Wallace wondered how dangerous, "how fearsome" this virus is and how it'll play out here. 

Calling it a "nightmare scenario" because this kind of respiratory virus can "grow exponentially," Gates noted if we'd kept on doing what we normally do, we'd be in pretty dire straits. But, quarantining like we're doing, the social distancing stuff, 

if we use that well enough, we should towards the end of this month start to see those numbers level off and then if we continue country-wide and we're testing the right people to understand what's going on, which is not the case yet, those numbers will start to go down and then we can look at some degree of opening back up.

Wallace asked if Gates thought the administration's numbers, somewhere between 100,00 - 240,000 deaths over the next two months, sounded right. He said if we do the social distancing right, "we should be able to get out of this with the death number well short of that." And, he said he's glad that the estimate is out in circulation,

because a lot of people are still thinking hey, "this is like normal," not waking up every day to a completely new reality... You know, Dr. Fauci is doing a very good job here of saying the numbers are what count here.  

He said that the various models people are doing all show things could be even worse without the behavior changes from our mitigation efforts.

But I do think if we get the testing fixed, we get all 50 states involved, we'll be below that. Of course, we'll pay a huge economic price in order to achieve that.

Gates said we don't yet know how seasonal this strain is but it would be beneficial if we got a seasonal break with it. That would give us time to get the drugs we need and to advance the vaccine, a high-volume vaccine, that's  could be available world-wide.

Wallace wondered how much the government's slow start cost, in terms of  the spread of the disease. Rather than focusing on what we lost, Gates looked to other countries and what they did and how that helped.

There are countries like Taiwan, who are exemplary: saw the problem and really got the testing, community-wide testing done very well. They prioritized who got tested and so they won't either have the disease burden or the economic effect that other countries will have. China, by late January had taken it seriously - and so, their ability to get the cases down has been dramatic. South Korea has done that.

We're learning from what's happened, Gates said, and he also made it clear that this is a global issue, that "we're all in this together."

We've got to get rid of coronavirus from the entire world. You know, the US, we can see how tough it is here; likely it will be even worse in the developing countries who as yet don't have nearly as many cases. 

He also talked about testing in some detail, and how some folks might be missing the point, although he didn't name names.

...people have gotten confused and think it's just about numbers. the key is that you have to have a response to the test in less than 24 hours. And that you're prioritizing the right people...that allocation, prioritization of testing will be a key tactic for us to get into good shape. 

And, he agreed when Wallace asked if that should be done at the national level not a state level.  He also said that we're having to take more of an ad hoc approach, "because we never did a full-blown simulation."

There were a few things done, but it's not like war where we do war games all the time, we have people standing by, resources standing by in a dramatic level. You know, we're kind of figuring this out as we go...people are rising to the occasion and, you know, it's fantastic to see that, but, you know, every day we can see that case number is still going up.

Gates said that it's hard for people to put money into something that may never happen; we do it for fires, he said, because we've seen over time that we need to. And of course, we do it for war, too, he said - $600B a year's worth. But in the five years since he talked about this

less than 5% of what should have been done was done... people didn't get that this is the biggest single threat that could disrupt our way of life...even having predicted that as a risk. I'm really stunned at how...tough it is to go through this....the medical cost, the economic cost, the psychological cost. Everybody's lives have been completely upended and that's not just the United States, it's almost the entire world.

Before the interview ended, Gates gave us one more pep talk, reminding us that this was not the worst case. The fatality rate here, around 1%, is actually nothing like the 30% it would be if it were, say, smallpox.

This is super, super bad, but, you know, we will eventually get a vaccine. Even before that, if we do the right things, we'll be able to open up significant parts of the economy... I'm sure...once we get past this, we'll look back, understand what we could have done differently, and make sure that we're not letting it happen again... 

That's something we should take to heart.

Stay home as much as possible. If you do go out, practice social distancing, and wear a home-made mask. Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. Safely check on your neighbors. Do what you can to help your favorite small businesses. Be patient. Smile.

See you around campus. 

TGIF 4/3/20

A little over a year ago, I joined my husband in retirement.

Before  that, I worked at home for several months, and so my husband and I have had a lot of time to get acclimated to this #AloneTogether stuff that many of my friends, and possibly many of yours, are now being forced to get used to -- and I'm glad that we didn't have to learn how to do this under the pressure of a pandemic, I've got to tell you. I hope you and yours are doing well, and hanging in.

Anyway...What a week, right?

More states have moved to mandatory statewide social distancing, but there are still eleven states where no such requirements are in place, or where only certain regions of the state is under some kind of requirement. Which is confusing to the experts on the White House Task Force, for sure, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, who thinks we should be under a national order.

The tension between federally mandated versus states' rights to do what they want is something I don't want to get into, but if you look at what's going on in this country, I just don't understand why we're not doing that — we really should be.

Now, about the argument about whether the feds or the states should be making the decisions? I stumbled upon this commentary by Stephen Moore, formerly of the Wall Street Journal and now of the Heritage Foundation. Like former House Speaker Paul Ryan, he's an Ayn Rand devotee. He notes in his commentary that, in many surveys, Rand's Atlas Shrugged "rates as the second most influential book of all time, behind the Bible." I'm not well versed enough on either book to comment, but anyway -- here's what he has to say about all of this.

We are living through the Ayn Rand dystopia right now. We have given police-state powers to the government to shut down "nonessential businesses" and tell the people whether they can play golf or go for a hike. Some of these measures may make sense based on public health, but at what point are we degrading the rights of individuals to choose risks for themselves? 

I'd say we're at the point when allowing people their selfish rights can unnecessarily endanger the rest of us, but maybe that's just me. Like I said, I'm not big on the Bible, but I know about that Golden Rule thing, and since I wouldn't ignorantly infect anyone else with the coronavirus, I don't think anyone should be selfishly giving it to me.

Meanwhile, speaking of Dr. Fauci, he's being memorialized with a bobblehead, and at the same time he's getting a security detail, due to threats from, well, from people I don't even know how to describe. The bobblehead, though? For every doll sold, $5 of the purchase price will be donated to the American Hospital Association for their efforts to obtain PPE for healthcare workers.

The pandemic is making a mess of our election processes; 15 states have postponed or changed how they're holding primaries. Not only that, but the DNC has pushed out their convention from mid-July to mid-August. The RNC is still planning on holding theirs as originally scheduled, in late August, although I supposed both of the events are still subject to change. And of course, it makes one wonder whether these are even necessary anyway?

On the Dem side, there's no official indication yet on whether That Guy From Vermont will step aside and endorse Papa Joe Biden, but there is indication that he still gets grumpy whenever people ask him about it. When Whoopi Goldberg demanded to know what his path to victory was, "because this feels a little like it did when you didn't come out when Hillary Clinton was clearly the person folks were going for," he 'sniped'

People have a right, last I heard, people in democracy have the right to vote for the agenda that they think can work for America, especially in this very, very difficult moment. We are assessing our campaign, as a matter of fact, where we want to go forward, but people in a democracy do have a right to vote. 

He also pointed out, or snapped, the article linked above says,

I'm sitting in my home right now. I'm not holding a rally in Wisconsin because of the nature of campaigns right now. 

And speaking of Wisconsin, that's the only state still holding a primary next Tuesday, out of the eleven that were scheduled. A federal judge has declined to delay the primary, but he's not really happy about it, it seems. US District Judge William Conley made clear that he disagreed with the state's decision to go forward with the election, but he explained that he was constrained to consider only the constitutional rights of voters - not public health." In his decision, he noted

Without doubt, the April 7 election day will create unprecedented burdens not just for aspiring voters, but also for poll workers, clerks and indeed the state. As much as the court would prefer that the Wisconsin Legislature and Governor consider the public health ahead of any political considerations, that does not appear in the cards. Nor is it appropriate for a federal district court to act as the state's chief health official by taking that step for them. 

On, Wisconsin, or something.

Back to the presidential race, I will echo the thoughts of many that Papa Joe is in a horrible position here. First of all, he's not good sitting in his basement trying to connect - he's old school, and does better in person. Second of all, he's not in office now, and so can't point to all of the things he's doing to make a difference, like TGFV can do. And third, and maybe most importantly, he's stuck in Delaware while the president is babbling on television for as long he wants, every day. Every. Single. Day.

TGIF, everyone. Be safe.

Wondering on Wednesday (v201)

Ready... Set... Wonder!

Let's dive in and get some wonderful-filment, shall we? 

I can't help wondering what the president is really going to do if a governor "doesn't treat him well" but at the same time, comes knocking for federal help. Do you think Trump will get away with not helping? Do you think we're that partisan, or have we come together with love for each other as True Patriots and Warriors against this, horrible, SAD, invisible ENEMY? He's the guy, remember, who during that same Fox Town Hall meeting, shared a debunked conspiracy theory about my Sonofa Gov, Andrew Cuomo, and some mysterious 15,000 or 16,000 ventilators he should have bought several years ago.  I wonder, does Trump really even knows what 'nice' is?

Speaking of the Sonofa Gov, it seems his response to the COVID-19 outbreak here in the Empire State is drawing raves not just from regular folk, his peers, and many pundits. Nope - there's a whole nother thing going on: the #cuomocrush - seriously! I'm not really wondering why this is happening, just that it's covering such a broad demographic. Take a look. 

How could I not fall in love with him? He doesn’t use notes or screens, he’s smart, his voice is strong,” said (one woman)... I’m almost 85 and finally think I know about men. He’s a keeper.”

In addition to that, we've got the Brothers Cuomo comedy show, which we got a peek at earlier when the Gov appeared on his brother's CNN show for the second time in a few days.  

Throughout the roughly 20-minute interview, the brothers struck a balance between weighty and sometimes grim conversation about the coronavirus outbreak sweeping the nation, with New York particularly hard hit, and keeping each other’s egos in check with teasing, slinging mock insults in a practiced manner befitting two guys who have spent decades honing their skills.

Here's my favorite comment from the article, which made me chuckle, not wonder.

After the coronavirus thing is over, can we please make @ChrisCuomo & @NYGovCuomo a nightly TV show?” one person tweeted. “The Cuomo Comedy Hour would be like an Italian family reunion rap battle. 

Other wonder-full things?  As we wait for a vote in the Senate on the stimulus package (there'll be plenty of time to wonder about that later), here's a scattering of good things that are happening, all over the place, during this time of social distancing and non-gathering.

• The National Cowboy Museum put the head of security in charge of social media, and it's one of the nicest things you'll read this week, I kid you not. He's engaging, he's sweet, and he's learning on the fly how to "engage" with his audience. 
• Animals in shelters across the country are being placed with foster families "in droves" even as shelters are closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
• Right here in my neck of the woods, a small business is now 3D printing face shields for health care workers - and have recruited thousands of others to do the same. 
• A Lodi, WI kindergarten teacher delivered hand-painted signs to her students, telling them she missed them, since they didn't have time to say goodbye before schools were closed due to the virus. 
• Neighborhoods are stepping up to entertain children who are getting their daily exercise; many are holding bear hunts. 

There are tons more of these good news stories -- I wonder if you can share some?

And finally, I'll leave you today with the Rotterdam Philharmonic's socially distanced version of Beethoven's Ode to Joy. If you ever wondered if there's any benefit to that 'thinking outside the box' thing, here's proof that it sometimes works. 

Quick Takes (v49): Fauci, Frankly.

Quick Takes

Many people, me included, have been looking to Dr Anthony Fauci as the voice of reason - the adult in the room, if you will - during the word salad explosions that are the White House Coronavirus Task Force press conferences.

Fauci did an interview over the weekend with Jon Cohen, of  Science magazine, and it's an interesting read, for sure. Here are a few excerpts for you.

He started by letting people know he's "sort of exhausted" but doing well otherwise, adding a laugh on the second part below.

I'm not, to my knowledge, coronavirus infected. To my knowledge, I haven't been fired.

Cohen asked how he's managing the not getting fired part.

Well, that's pretty interesting because to his [Trump’s] credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.

He also said that although it looks like he is disagreeing with Trump, he "doesn't disagree in the substance." Rather,

It is expressed in a way that I would not express it, because it could lead to some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject.

He also talked about having to push messaging, sometimes repeatedly, whether it's on hand-shaking, or meetings, or the press conferences. He said the VP is "really pushing" for physical separation during the task force meetings, keeping people out of the room if more than 10 or so try to cram in.  But,

The situation on stage [for the press briefings] is a bit more problematic. I keep saying, ‘Is there any way we can get a virtual press conference?’ Thus far, no. But when you're dealing with the White House, sometimes you have to say things one, two, three, four times, and then it happens. So, I'm going to keep pushing.

And, he said as far as the press conferences go, when there are sometimes more than 10 people on stage and more than that many reporters in the room,  "I’m trying my best. I cannot do the impossible."

And there was this exchange on travel restrictions.

Cohen: What about the travel restrictions? Trump keeps saying that the travel ban for China, which began 2 February, had a big impact [on slowing the spread of the virus to the United States] and that he wishes China would have told us 3 to 4 months earlier and that they were “very secretive.” [China did not immediately reveal the discovery of a new coronavirus in late December 2019, but by 10 January, Chinese researchers made the sequence of the virus public.] It just doesn't comport with facts.

Fauci:  I know, but what do you want me to do? I mean, seriously Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?

Cohen:  Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you're standing there as the representative of truth and facts, but things are being said that aren't true and aren't factual.

Fauci: The way it happened is that after he made that statement [suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus 3 to 4 months earlier], I told the appropriate people, it doesn't comport, because 2 or 3 months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, ‘By the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don't say that.’ But I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time.

On the current process of state-by-state social distancing or shelter-in-place orders ,and whether it's a mistake to not have this be a national plan, Fauci pointed to the "delicate balance" and to discussions about the "overall impact of shutting everything down completely," and of finding a compromise.

If you knock down the economy completely and disrupt infrastructure, you may be causing health issues, unintended consequences, for people who need to be able to get to places and can't. You do the best you can. I've emphasized very emphatically at every press conference, that everybody in the country, at a minimum, should be following the fundamental guidelines. Elderly, stay out of society in self isolation. Don't go to work if you don't have to. Yada, yada, yada. No bars, no restaurants, no nothing. Only essential services.

When you get a place like New York or Washington or California, you have got to ratchet it up. But it is felt—and it isn't me only speaking, it’s a bunch of people who make the decisions—that if you lock down everything now, you're going to crash the whole society. So, you do what you can do, as best as you can. Do as much physical separation as you can and ratchet it up at the places you know are at highest risk.

Also interesting? The process of what happens before the daily press conferences.  Fauci said that the task force sits down for 90 minutes or so, then move to the anteroom near the Oval Office to talk about the messages that they want to emphasize. And then?

Then we go in to see the president, we present [our consensus] to him and somebody writes a speech. Then he gets up and ad libs on his speech. And then we're up there to try and answer questions.

Cohen mentioned seeing the creative ideas that we're not doing here that other countries have tried, such as taking everyone's temperature before letting them into a grocery store, and wondered if that's something we should be considering. Fauci noted that things others are doing have been discussed, but not all of them can be implemented. Specifically to the temperature-taking, he noted

I think the logistics of that have to be worked out... This is something that should be considered. I will bring it up at the next task force meeting and see whether there’s some sort of a logistical, bureaucratic reason why it can't be done. The rationale for doing it is at least worth serious consideration.

He also said that it's premature right now to talk about what went wrong, and that there'll be time to do that later after it's over.

It's almost like the fog of war. After the war is over, you then look back and say, ‘Wow, this plan, as great as it was, didn't quite work once they started throwing hand grenades at us.’ It really is similar to that. Obviously, testing [for the new coronavirus] is one clear issue that needs to be relooked at. Why were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale? But I don't think we can do that right now. I think it's premature. We really need to look forward.

And finally, the question that everyone wants to know the answer to?

It was asked, and it was answered. Kind of. Take a look.

Getty Images

Cohen: At Friday’s press conference, you put your hands over your face when Trump referred to the “deep State Department,” [a popular conspiracy theory]. 

It’s even become an internet meme. Have you been criticized for what you did?

Fauci: No comment.

Maybe we'll get the real story after the fog of war has cleared.