Sunday School 1/14/24: Extra Credit

 For your Extra Credit this week, I eavesdropped as  Democrat political operative David Axelrod and Larry Hogan, former GOP governor of Maryland, chatted with Jake Tapper in the CNN State of the Union classroom.  

It's interesting, now that we know the results of the Iowa caucus (Trump won, DeSantis was a distant second, and Haley was a close third), to hear their take on things.

Tapper asked Hogan who he wanted to win, and what the path to the nomination looked like for that person. Obviously, Hogan knew that it was "pretty clear that Donald Trump is going to win Iowa," but he also said

I don't think it matters that much, because, for the past 24 years, the winner of the Republican Caucus in Iowa has not been the nominee. So it's really about the fight for second place.

DeSantis, he said, put a lot of effort into Iowa, but he sees Nikki Haley as the one with the momentum. That matters, he said, because "what this race is really all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for November." Haley has the momentum, Hogan said.

...she has the potential of moving into second place, although it be at a distant second place, which gives her momentum heading into New Hampshire, where she's only seven points down. 

Tapper asked if that was an endorsement.  

I think we want to have the strongest possible nominee in November. Polls show that that is Nikki Haley, that she's 17 points ahead of Joe Biden, and it's a toss-up with Trump and Biden, and DeSantis is losing. So, yes, I think it's time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley. My friend Chris Christie dropped out of the race in New Hampshire. I appreciate his effort. But I believe that Nikki Haley is the strongest chance for us to put forth our best possible candidate for November.

Axelrod said that if DeSantis finished third, "he will be on his way back to Tallahassee, rather than New Hampshire," given the amount of time and money spent in Iowa. He also said if he were Haley, he'd be concerned about polling.  She was in second place, but "every other number would be a little concerning.," 

... 49% of Donald Trump's supporters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting for him, 23% of Ron DeSantis'. For Haley, that number was 9%. And you have to ask yourself, if you're not terribly enthusiastic, are you going to drag yourself out on a night like this?

Also, "...half her support comes from independents and Democrats who say they're going to vote in the Republican caucuses."

Are they going to drag themselves out on a bitterly cold night to sit through two hours of discussion to cast a vote for Nikki Haley? It may happen. It could happen, but it looks worrisome to me...

And, he said if she doesn't beat DeSantis, in New Hampshire "the perception will be that she missed her mark." 

Tapper switched gears to the issue of a third party entering the fray. He noted that Hogan had stepped down from the leadership of No Labels, and asked if he was "exploring a run for president" on a No Labels ticket. 

Hogan admitted his move had "created a whole lot of speculation," but he didn't mean for that to happen, and his position on running hasn't changed.

I'm focused on trying to nominate the strongest possible Republican we can, which is why I'm urging everyone to get behind Nikki Haley. I wish my friend Axe could come up with a better nominee for the Democrats, quite frankly, because 70% of the people in America do not want to vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

But, no, I'm -- I -- they're going to, I think, continue to try to get access to the ballot. They're going to wait and see if we're stuck with these two bad choices in -- on the November ballot. And I think they will make their decision in March or April, but my position has not changed.

Axelrod's glad Hogan stepped away, and said Trump's "best friends... are third-party candidates."

...if you look at polling, he tends to pick up marginally because of these third-party candidates. Certainly, that would be the case if No Labels fielded a candidate. And I think Larry was smart to step off of their board. And I would be sad, because I like him as a friend, to see him used in that way that would help Donald Trump in the election.

The final word went to Hogan. 

We would not be discussing any of this if Biden and Trump were not so weak. And so it's an interesting election. But I can tell you, I wouldn't want to be associated with anything that would be a spoiler for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. And we will just have to wait and see. It's going to be a wild ride, I think, in 2024.

I suspect my favorite Republican is right on that last part.  See you around campus.