Sunday School 1/14/24: Extra Credit

 For your Extra Credit this week, I eavesdropped as  Democrat political operative David Axelrod and Larry Hogan, former GOP governor of Maryland, chatted with Jake Tapper in the CNN State of the Union classroom.  

It's interesting, now that we know the results of the Iowa caucus (Trump won, DeSantis was a distant second, and Haley was a close third), to hear their take on things.

Tapper asked Hogan who he wanted to win, and what the path to the nomination looked like for that person. Obviously, Hogan knew that it was "pretty clear that Donald Trump is going to win Iowa," but he also said

I don't think it matters that much, because, for the past 24 years, the winner of the Republican Caucus in Iowa has not been the nominee. So it's really about the fight for second place.

DeSantis, he said, put a lot of effort into Iowa, but he sees Nikki Haley as the one with the momentum. That matters, he said, because "what this race is really all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for November." Haley has the momentum, Hogan said.

...she has the potential of moving into second place, although it be at a distant second place, which gives her momentum heading into New Hampshire, where she's only seven points down. 

Tapper asked if that was an endorsement.  

I think we want to have the strongest possible nominee in November. Polls show that that is Nikki Haley, that she's 17 points ahead of Joe Biden, and it's a toss-up with Trump and Biden, and DeSantis is losing. So, yes, I think it's time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley. My friend Chris Christie dropped out of the race in New Hampshire. I appreciate his effort. But I believe that Nikki Haley is the strongest chance for us to put forth our best possible candidate for November.

Axelrod said that if DeSantis finished third, "he will be on his way back to Tallahassee, rather than New Hampshire," given the amount of time and money spent in Iowa. He also said if he were Haley, he'd be concerned about polling.  She was in second place, but "every other number would be a little concerning.," 

... 49% of Donald Trump's supporters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting for him, 23% of Ron DeSantis'. For Haley, that number was 9%. And you have to ask yourself, if you're not terribly enthusiastic, are you going to drag yourself out on a night like this?

Also, "...half her support comes from independents and Democrats who say they're going to vote in the Republican caucuses."

Are they going to drag themselves out on a bitterly cold night to sit through two hours of discussion to cast a vote for Nikki Haley? It may happen. It could happen, but it looks worrisome to me...

And, he said if she doesn't beat DeSantis, in New Hampshire "the perception will be that she missed her mark." 

Tapper switched gears to the issue of a third party entering the fray. He noted that Hogan had stepped down from the leadership of No Labels, and asked if he was "exploring a run for president" on a No Labels ticket. 

Hogan admitted his move had "created a whole lot of speculation," but he didn't mean for that to happen, and his position on running hasn't changed.

I'm focused on trying to nominate the strongest possible Republican we can, which is why I'm urging everyone to get behind Nikki Haley. I wish my friend Axe could come up with a better nominee for the Democrats, quite frankly, because 70% of the people in America do not want to vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

But, no, I'm -- I -- they're going to, I think, continue to try to get access to the ballot. They're going to wait and see if we're stuck with these two bad choices in -- on the November ballot. And I think they will make their decision in March or April, but my position has not changed.

Axelrod's glad Hogan stepped away, and said Trump's "best friends... are third-party candidates."

...if you look at polling, he tends to pick up marginally because of these third-party candidates. Certainly, that would be the case if No Labels fielded a candidate. And I think Larry was smart to step off of their board. And I would be sad, because I like him as a friend, to see him used in that way that would help Donald Trump in the election.

The final word went to Hogan. 

We would not be discussing any of this if Biden and Trump were not so weak. And so it's an interesting election. But I can tell you, I wouldn't want to be associated with anything that would be a spoiler for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. And we will just have to wait and see. It's going to be a wild ride, I think, in 2024.

I suspect my favorite Republican is right on that last part.  See you around campus. 

Wondering on Wednesday 12/16/20

 

Ready... Set... Wonder!

We're going to kind of meander through some wondering, starting with the latest presidential approval rating from the folks at Rasmussen Reports. According to today's  edition of their daily tracking, the president is underwater by 8 points, with 36% of likely voters strongly approving of his performance and 44% strongly disapproving.  Here's a look at Trump's ratings for the month of December. 

• Average strongly approve: 37%
• Average strongly disapprove: 42%
• Average total approval: 49%
• Average total disapproval: 50%

The president has had only six days with a positive approval rating in the past three months: September 20th (+4),  November 9th-12th (+1, +3, +4, +2) and November 17th (+2).  This year, the president's total approval rating has at least 50% only 51 days, and it was never more than 53%.  

On Election Day? 49% total approval, 50% total disapproval, and a -4 difference between his strongly approve and strongly disapprove scores (39% and 43%, respectively). So, as he continues to wonder why he didn't win the election, he can go to Rasmussen and look at the entire year of proof: we don't love him as much as he has convinced himself we love him.

Now, some people do love him as much as he loves himself, including the whole cast of characters that have fought to prove voter fraud, which would lead to his re-election. You know, people Like this former Texas cop, and the group he was working for.  How's this for a headline?

Former Houston police captain accused of violent attempt to prove election conspiracy was hired by GOP activist's group

Sounds like love, right? The former Houston captain, Mark Aguirre, had been following an "innocent and ordinary" air conditioner repairman for days; at least two other people helped with the surveillance. Aguirre thought that the repairman "was behind a huge voter fraud scheme," and Aguirre "believed the technician to be transporting fake ballots in his vehicle and to have as many as 750,000 in his possession."  The logical thing to do, then, was to run him off the road and pull a gun on him, force him to the ground, steal his fan to search it, and then abandon the vehicle, right? There were no ballots. Just air conditioner parts. At first, I wondered if the big donor's firm, The Liberty Center for God and Country, would be asking for the$266,400 they paid Aguirre, but then I read that the donor, Steven Hotze, wanted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to kill protesters back in July.

"I want you to give a message to the governor," Hotze told Abbott's chief of staff, Luis Saenz, in a voicemail. "I want to make sure that he has National Guard down here and they have the order to shoot to kill if any of these son-of-a-bitch people start rioting like they have in Dallas, start tearing down businesses — shoot to kill the son of a bitches. That’s the only way you restore order. Kill 'em. Thank you."

I have to wonder about the politeness of the message, don't you? I mean, who ends a message telling a government official to implement a shoot-to-kill order, by saying thank you? 

Staying with the election, and the cast of characters with whom the president surrounds himself, I thought this article in the NY Times was interesting. Once and now former Trump election fraud attorney Sidney Powell, who vowed to "release the Kraken" and "blow up" Georgia with a "biblical case," has now turned her attention to a new subject: the coronavirus vaccines.

"NO WAY #America." Ms. Powell wrote in the tweet, which collected 22,600 shares and 51,000 likes. "This is more authoritarian communist control imported straight from #China." She then tagged Mr. Trump the former national security adviser Michael T. Flynn - both of whom she had represented - and other prominent right-wing figures to highlight the post.

I'm just wondering generally here, what's the next big conspiracy thing going to be? And will it be coming at us from the right, or will the left dive in to keep things interesting? I mean, they're still talking about how Bernie would have beaten Trump if only the DNC hadn't robbed him again.

About a year-and-a-half ago, I 'disaffiliated myself' from the Democrats, switching my voter registration to 'no party' - primarily because That Guy from Vermont, who is not a Dem - was being allowed by the party to run for president under the team banner, for the second time. I didn't use the 'disaffiliated' language, but that's the language that Rep. Paul Mitchell of Michigan used in announcing he was leaving the GOP, lamenting the lack of leadership and the continued contesting of the election, the conspiracy theories, and so on. I completely understand why he did it; I just wonder, if he wasn't retiring, would he still have left? I hope the answer is yes., butt you never can be sure.  

 Rep. Mitchell might be happy, as I was, to learn that Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who I call my favorite Republican, will be one of the national co-chairs of No Labels. Hogan has a nearly 80% approval rating in his state (see that, president Trump?) and is well liked by Rs, Ds, Independents and pretty much everyone else.  Here's his statement.

I am honored to help lead No Labels at a time when our message of putting aside partisan differences for the common good is needed more than ever. Amid this awful pandemic, the people in my state and across our country are desperate for leaders to work across the aisle and focus on solving the urgent problems we face. I have admired the work No Labels has done to empower these kinds of leaders and to mobilize grassroots supporters, and this work is just beginning. it's time to give voice to the vast majority of Americans who want a different and better kind of politics and mobilize this movement into action.

Anyone wondering how they can get involved or learn more?  Check out the group's website.

What are you wondering about tonight?