Sidebar: It's My Party (or not)

A Poll Watch entry last week touched on how people feel about the two major political parties (we're not happy with them), GOP loyalty to Trump (it's high, and almost a necessity for potential candidates), and on chances we'll see a new party emerge from the carnage of the last election (62% of us are that disappointed with our current party). 

And, my TGIF post included these notes on CPAC 2021.

... the former president will be speaking to his minions on Sunday. Given his post-presidency comments, there's some speculation that he'll be announcing his next insurrection run for the White House in 2024. According to the oddsmakers in Vegas,

...Trump is more likely than not to declare himself for the Republican nomination...during his CPAC speech... As of Friday morning, the odds were 4 to 5, suggesting a 55.6% implied probability that Trump declares during his speech.

And will he do that as a Republican, or as a Patriot Party member? Well, there's only a 4-to-1 chance that he'll do it as anything other than a died-in-the-wool RINO. 

Ye, I called him a RINO. He's not an ideological Republican - he's an opportunist. His ideology is whatever the most outrageous person in the room thinks, coupled with how he thinks any kind of action will help his image and his personal bottom line. Similarly, I don't consider him a patriot. But I digress. Trump made a few pronouncements at CPAC, but before we get to that, a little history. 

According to this Politico article from January 13th - smack dab in between the insurrection and the inauguration - only 40% of Rs and R-leaning independents said they'd vote for him if he ran in 2024. That's a significant drop from the 53% who said he'd be their guy in November's version of the same survey.

In mid-February, the same question was asked by the same pollsters. Trump was back up to 53%, with Mike Pence (12%), Nikki Haley and Donny Jr. (6% each); 'would not vote' (5%); and Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz bringing up the rear (4% each).

So, what happened at CPAC? Here are the results of the 2024 nominee straw polls. One included Trump; he won with underwhelming support, taking only 55% of the votes. Florida's Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second with 21% and South Dakota Gov. Kristi 'Let's put Trump on Mount Rushmore' Noem was a distant third, with 4%.

When Trump is out of the picture, DeSantis gets 43%, and Noem claws her way to 11%. After that? Donny Jr. (8%), and Mike Pompeo and Cruz (7% each). I don't know about you, but if I were polling worse than the son of the president, I'd wonder if there's a need to invest the time or money making a run. 

One thing to keep in mind? The CPAC straw poll isn't very reliable. This Vox article includes a tweet from Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News. Take a look.

Perhaps they should call it CPAC's Grasping at Straws Poll? 

Now, did Trump announce a run? Not quite; here's what he said.

... But who knows? Who knows, I may even decide to beat them for a third time, OK?

And there was this.

With your help, we will take back the House. We will win the Senate. And then a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House. And I wonder who that will be? I wonder who that will be. Who, who will that be? I wonder.

One thing that's certain? CPAC attendees are the Trumpers of the GOP. They hang on his every word, fawn over his golden statue, and bask in all things 45. As noted in this NY Times article,

The party’s viability in the future, these people suggested — some as they proudly displayed their well-worn Trump 2020 T-shirts — was entirely contingent upon its members’ willingness to remain fixed in the past.