Poll Watch: It's My Party (or not)

We all know that it took a broad coalition of voters to elect President Joe Biden. As this Global Risk Insights article pointed out, support came from former GOP elected officials, long-time GOP operatives who voted for Trump in 2016, and from progressive Dems (who probably held their noses when voting). 

Now, some of the Rs who voted Biden/Harris in an anti-Trump move may be open to forming a "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" party - FCSL, I'll call it. And we know that  the former president suggested he might just start a new "Patriot Party," a misnomer, for sure. So, what do we think about the idea of new political parties? 

There are a couple of insightful polls on that, starting with a Gallup poll from earlier this month. First, the small print: randomly dialed phone interviews occurred 1/21- 2/2/21, with minimum quotas of 70% cell/30% landline... 906 adults 18 and older, from all 50 states and DC (412 R/leaning R and 420 D/leaning D) participated; the sampling error is +/- 4% overall, and +/- 6% for party-specific responses. 

Here's the BLOT (bottom line on top), excerpted from the article. 

...appetite for a third party has never been greater in Gallup's nearly two decades of polling on the subject...a majority of Republicans are joining the usual majority of independents in wanting that option... The possibility still exists that a pro-Trump or anti-Trump third party will splinter off...

And, some highlights:

• 62% say the major parties are doing such a poor job that a third party is needed; only 33% feel the parties do an adequate job. In 2003, when the question was first asked, 56% said the parties were doing an adequate job, with 40% saying a third party was needed. 
• All age groups believe a third party is needed, with 77% of the 18-34 group and 55% of the 55+ cohort as the extremes. 
• Ideologically, Independents (70%) who don't really have a home with either party lead the way. Equally unsurprising, more Rs (63%) than Ds (46%) feel left out of their party, and the unhappy R population is up 23 points since September.
• Respondents of all ideologies - conservatives (63%), moderates (63%) and liberals (61%) - aren't feeling the love. That's an interesting challenge for Dems, I think.

Notably, the survey was taken before the start of the president Trump's second impeachment trial, and before there was open talk of officials from previous administrations were talking about forming an anti-Trump party. 

Let's turn to a more recent CBS News/YouGov poll. Small print first, though: a nationally representative sample of 2,508 U.S. residents was interviewed 2/5 - 2/8/21; it was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey... the 2020 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.3%.

Here's the BLOT for this one, from the article:

...most still broadly value loyalty to Mr. Trump. Many current Republicans say they might even join a new party headed by Mr. Trump if he were to start one. 

First, here's what folks think about their parties:

• Only 37% of Dems think their party represents them most or all the time; 36% say it almost never or never does. It's even worse for the Rs, with 25% feeling represented most or all the time, and 44% saying almost never or never.
• Republican men and women are united in not feeling the love from their party (42% and 46%, respectively), while Dems are more divided along gender lines. 40% of women feel represented, while 39% of men don't think they are.
• Rs without degrees think better of the party than do those with degrees; 32% of the former feel represented most or all the time, compared to 26% of the latter. It's closer for the Ds: 38% without degrees, and 40% with degrees, think the party represents them most or all the time.

And now, to the fun stuff: 

• 73% of Republicans think it's important (46% saying it's very important) that their guys are loyal to Trump.
• Women (75% total, 49% very important), folks 65 and older (79% total, 59% very important) and those without college degrees (78% total, 52% very important) are the most focused on Trump loyalty.

Loyalty to Trump is important, but it's only motivated 15% of all respondents to go with him if he left the GOP; 20% said maybe, and.65% said no. 

• Conservatives (32%), whites without college degrees (21%), whites (18%) and the 65+ cohort (16%) are the most pro-Trump; that's been the case all along.
• Among the 'maybe I'd join him' cohorts, in addition to the ones above, men (23%), 45-64- year-olds (21%), and Hispanics (20%). Males are the fifth of the pro-Trump groups.
• Least likely to join him? Liberals, of course (8% combined yes/maybe), Blacks (15%), and women, whites with college degrees, and the under-30 crowd (all 31%).

Will Trump loyalists have a new home with him? Will there be a home for FCSLs like me, from the moderate part of both major parties? Trump's speaking to his devotees at CPAC on Sunday - maybe he'll make an announcement that'll give us some insight on all of this. 

I'll leave you with some thoughts from conservative columnist George Will, who's talking about the Trumpian wing of the GOP in his last sentence.

An essential conservative insight about everything is that nothing necessarily endures. Care must be taken. The Republican party will wither if the ascendant Lout Caucus is the face it presents to this nation of decent, congenial people. 

Drop a comment with your thoughts about a new party, or about what the parties can do to more represent "this nation of decent, congenial people."