Poll Watch: Democracy, Extremism and More

And so, it begins (again). 

The second impeachment trial of Donald Trump begins today, with an almost certain outcome already known, as it was the first time he was impeached a year ago. 

The Senate will have a split vote on whether it's even constitutional to impeach him, with the Rs likely ignoring, for the second time in two weeks, that it was their own rules that made it impossible to impeach him before his term ended. 

We will go through the motions: the Rs will claim the impeachment is dividing the country, and Ds will say that Trump continues to pose a clear and present danger to everything that's good and wholesome, so he must be prevented from ever holding office again. Pundits will wear their best outfits, the networks will have their impeachment background music, and when it's over, everything is supposed to be OK. 

But will everything be OK? Here's some info from a recent Quinnipiac poll illustrating where we stand right now, on impeachment and some other measures of 'OK-ness.'

First, the small print: the survey was conducted by live interviewers calling both land lines and cell phones from 1/28 - 2/1/21. There were 1,057 participants, 35% of whom identified as independents, 31% Democrat and 23% Republican. The margin of error is +/- 3%.

Now, to the survey.

Only 22% of respondents believe that democracy is alive and well in the US, while 71% say it's under threat and 7% don't know.

• Republicans (85%) are more pessimistic than Dems (67%), Independents (70%), men (72%), women (71%), and people with (80%) and without (75%) four-year college degrees. 
• Younger adults - the 18-34 demographic - are the least pessimistic, with only 58% thinking democracy is under threat; the 65+ cohort is the most pessimistic (80%).

Fully 75% of respondents are concerned about continued violence in the US by extremist groups emboldened by the insurrection at the US Capitol, with 48% saying they are very concerned, and 27% somewhat concerned. Another 22% of respondents expressed less concern (9% not so concerned, 13% not concerned at all).

• Democrats (70%), women (54%), and four-year college grads (51%) lead the very concerned bucket; Republicans (21%), men (18%) and Independents and non-degree holders (16% each) lead the 'not concerned at all' groups. 
• Women are more concerned than men. 82% of white women are concerned, with 55% very concerned; 80% of non-white women are concerned, with 52% saying they're very concerned. The least concerned? White men, at 34% (21% not at all concerned).
• Just 50% of the 18-34 expressed any concern, while 84% of seniors did.

We're not optimistic on the partisan divide, either. 72% of respondents expect partisan divisions in the country to stay the same (33%) or get worse (39%), with only 20% thinking the divisions are going to decrease. Democrats are the most optimistic; nearly three quarters think it will stay the same (40%) or get better (34%). Not surprisingly, the least optimistic are the Rs; nearly 2/3 (63%) think it's going to get worse. 

• Women are twice as optimistic as men in thinking it'll get better (26% to 13%) and white women are more than twice as optimistic as white men (28% to 12%).
• Meanwhile, 50% of white men think it's going to get worse; they're the only demographic, other than Republicans, that reaches that mark.

And, finally, on the day's hot topic? Half of all respondents believe the Senate should convict former president Trump, while 45% disagree. Not surprisingly, there's a wide swath of disagreement between Ds and Rs - 86% of the latter say no, and 86% of the former say yes.

• At least half of each age bucket say yes: the 35-49 and 50-64 are right at 50%, with the 18-34 gang 1% higher and the 65+ cohort 2% higher. 
• The most conflicted groups? Independents (49% say convict, 45% say no, and 6% don't know or didn't answer) and the 50-64 age bucket (50%, 47%, and 3%).
• Trump's steadfast supporters - men, whites, and non-college educated folks - are supporting him on this. 53% of all men, 64% of white men, 53% of non-white men, and 60% of those without four-year degrees say he should not be convicted.

My overarching take on this? It seems the people who are most involved in the current spate of extremism, and in fomenting the divide, are the ones who are the least optimistic that things are going to get better. They're the same people - Republicans and white men in particular - who could start acting differently, and help push the needle in a positive direction.

Does that excuse the Dems? Good lord, no - of course not! I would never let them off the hook, believe me. But they are not the party of the cannibalistic deep state pedophiles. They are not the conspiracy theorists. They are not the group that sought to 'liberate' Michigan and other states. They are not the people who tried to cajole election officials to "find 11,780 votes" so that their candidate could win. They are not the people of the fearless leader who abandoned his most loyal supporter, leaving him to an unruly mob looking to hang him. 

The Dems have their own problems, and they are many. But the Rs have a bigly ownership stake in the state of things in the country right now, and to date most of them don't seem to understand that, or care enough to do anything about it. Oh sure, the few who have thrown in the towel and announced they're not running for office again are taking a stand, of sorts. But the rest of them are too busy censuring each other, trying to force each other to resign, and threatening to primary anyone who doesn't still and always support Donald Trump. 

We deserve better from all of them, for sure, but we mostly deserve much better from the Rs right now, and I'm not optimistic they're going to rise to the occasion. 

I'd be thrilled if they proved me wrong.