December 7, 2020

Sunday School 12/6/20: Extra Credit

In this week's Sunday School, we talked to Republicans about the election. For your Extra Credit, let's talk with some of the pandemic experts, starting with Dr. Deborah Birx, who visited the Meet the Press classroom.

Chuck Todd wondered what Birx would say to frustrated healthcare workers, what with the new CDC guidelines on indoor mask wearing, and at the same time we've got a boatload of parties being thrown by the president and others in the administration.

I think it's really important that every single person understands that the way this virus is spread is if you're with anyone indoors without a mask, that's a viral spreading opportunity. If you're outdoors and hugging and kissing individuals, that is a viral spreading opportunity... And we have to listen right now to what we know works, which is mask, physical distancing, washing your hands. But not gathering. You cannot gather without masks in any indoor or close outdoor situation.

And, she's frustrated, too, with people making the arguments that mask don't work, we need herd immunity, that gatherings don't turn into superspreaders, and with the many areas where leaders aren't putting in the necessary restrictions. 

... this fall/winter surge is combining everything that we saw in the spring with everything that we saw in the summer, plus the fall surge going into a winter surge. And I think that's why Dr. Redfield made this absolute appeal to the American people. This is not just the worst public health event. This is the worst event that this country will face, not just from a public health side. Yet, we know what behaviors spread the virus and we know how to change those behaviors to stop spreading the virus.

She said that all states are trying to get things under control, but they all need to do more, including "critically informing their state population that the gatherings we saw in Thanksgiving will lead to a surge" and we can't have a 'it doesn't apply to me" attitude.

... You cannot gather with your mask off. You cannot hug and kiss people outside. We won't have a vaccine for even the most vulnerable Americans -- I'm thrilled with the vaccine. But we won't have them for the most vulnerable Americans until February. So we need to do this now.

Christmas travel is dangerous "because it mixes households" and because we don't know who the asymptomatic carriers are. She said  we need to increase testing of asymptomatic people, to identify people with the virus so we can stop them from spreading it. That's a huge change from how we test now, and would antagonize the president if he were paying attention.

And, of course, everything she's saying we need to do is being ignored by the president and members of his cabinet, or contradicted by them, including HHS Secretary Alex Azar, who visited the Fox News Sunday classroom.

Wallace played a clip of CDC Director Robert Redfield saying, "The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation," and asked Azar if this was the result of "a massive failure by president Trump and his administration?" 

Azar blamed the weather. Well, the weather and something else. 

It's about behavior and cold weather. People are going indoors. They're not minding the three Ws. They're not wearing their face coverings. We're engaged in indoor behaviors where we let our guard down.  We need people to renew their commitment. 

He tried to change the subject, but Wallace stayed on topic, mentioning President-elect Biden's plan to ask for a 100-day mask-wearing commitment, as opposed to  president Trump saying back in April that he wouldn't be wearing a mask, and that it was voluntary, not necessary

This is when Azar referred to 'Vice President Biden,' and where he ignored two corrections by Wallace on that point. And this is where he tried to convince us that Trump is doing enough, and that all of his top advisors tell people to wear masks. Wallace refreshed Azar on Trump's maskless behavior, including his Georgia rally just the night before.

Chris, our advice is always the same, wash your hands, watch your distance, wear face coverings when you can't watch your distance and be especially careful of those settings like overcrowded indoor bars and restaurants or multi-family household gatherings where you're going to let your guard down and take that face covering off. So, Chris, our advice is the same, regardless of the setting.

It's hopeless, trying to get these folks to admit the president is unhelpful, or doing the wrong thing, or not saying the right thing. It's hopeless.

And here's the contradiction with Birx on mitigation efforts. Wallace asked about lockdowns, which Azar said were not necessary.

Chris, our community mitigation efforts have to be based in science and evidence or we lose public support and compliance for them. We know that our workplaces, our universities, our K-12 schools, flying on airplanes are not major vectors of disease transmission. It's overcrowded indoor restaurants and bars, it is multi-household indoor gatherings where we let our guard down. These are the things we need to protect against. If we go too far - and we defer to governors on the steps they need to take. It's their call. But we -- if we go beyond science and evidence, we will undermine public support... 

We won't get a unified voice, from the president on down, from this administration, but I expect we will from the next one.. 

Finally, the head of Operation Warp Speed, Dr. Moncef Slaoui, was in the CNN SOTU classroom. Tapper asked when we might see results from the vaccine, such as improvements in our death and hospitalization numbers. 

The vaccine efficacy, as we have seen it, actually starts reasonably quickly after the first dose of vaccine, and then is further maintained with the second dose. And, therefore, I am hopeful that, by the end of the month of January, we should already see a quite a significant decrease in the mortality and severe morbidity associated in the elderly population. 

He also said we don't know whether a person who's vaccinated will still be able to spread the virus, even if they're now no longer at risk. He thinks most folks will "control the virus" and not be infectious to others.

That work, we may have a first answer to it somewhere in February/March from the trial that we have conducted already, further analysis and some analysis in blood and things like that. But there are also -- we're discussing clinical trials where we may be able to assess whether people actually, on a daily basis, shed virus or stop shedding the virus when they have been immunized and exposed to this -- to the infection. 

Similarly, we don't know for sure on how long immunity will last, or if this'll become a seasonal vaccine we need.

...based on science and experience I have, this vaccine effectiveness will be long-lasting, because one of the hallmark of our immune system is, it has memory. It remembers everything we learned. It learned. And when it sees the virus again, it responds to it much, much faster than when it sees it the first time. I think that process of memory is likely to prolong our protection for probably a few years, and maybe many, many years. 

Tapper mentioned polling showing that "less than half of black Americans say they will get a coronavirus vaccine if one were available today." Slaoui said they've been working with everyone -- "NIH leadership, with the surgeon general, with all the leaders that we could" to engage the minority population, including to get clinical trial participants. And he said

Nobody is being used as a guinea pig. Unfortunately, this virus is impacting the African-American population and the Hispanics two and four times more than it does to the Caucasian part of our country. And we have to stop that. It's really very, very important that people take the time to listen to the data, listen to the people they trust that have some expertise. Please don't make your opinion outside of having listened to the data and to experts you trust. When that happens, I feel confident you will agree to be immunized. And that can help save your life.

As they closed the interview, Slaoui said he expects the FDA advisory panel to approve the Pfizer vaccine when it meets later this week.  

Masks on, folks, and I'll see you around campus. But you won't catch me in a plane anytime soon, I can assure you.

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