Sunday School Extra Credit 1/12/20

I wanted to spend some time with one of the roundtable gangs in this week, and chose the panel from ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, since they had House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to talk about.

This Week's group included former NJ Governor Chris Christie; former Obama administration ambassador to South Africa Patrick Gaspard; Rachael Bade of the WaPo, and Molly Ball from Time Magazine.

For background on the panel's discussion about impeachment, I've included some of Pelosi's comments from her chat with George. First off, she said she always intended to send the articles, so "there shouldn't be any mystery to that."

What we did want, though, and we think we accomplished in the past few weeks, is that we wanted the public to see the need for witnesses, witnesses with firsthand knowledge of what happened, documentation which the president has prevented from coming to Congress as we review this. 

And, in response to George's statement that Mitch McConnell (R-White House) still isn't promising there'll be any witnesses, Pelosi said

Well, he has -- he will -- I think that he will be accountable to the American people for that. Over 70% of the American people think that the president should have those witnesses testify. So, again, it is - it's about a fair trial. They take an oath to -- to have a fair trial. And we think that would be with witnesses and documentation. So, that dynamic has - now the ball is in their court to either do that, or pay a price for not doing it. 

How did the panel react?  Rachael Bade noted that Pelosi was "clearly putting a positive spin on what a lot of Democrats have privately said was a failed strategy." She didn't get any commitment on having witnesses, or on how the trial would be run - and, the "revelations" that dropped over the past weeks, including John Bolton saying he'd testify if asked to, "probably would have happened regardless" of Pelosi's actions, adding

And, in fact, there might have been even more news focused on those things, if everybody wasn't asking, 'what is Nancy Pelosi doing (with) the articles?' So, I do think there are a lot of Democrats who, while not going on the record and saying it, a lot of them have concerns about this.

Molly Ball talked responded to George's statement about Dems who suggested (again, off the record)  Pelosi didn't have a choice because McConnell can't be trusted, particularly "that maybe he might even move quickly to dismiss."

Ball said the standoff between Pelosi and McConnell was "very sort of unstoppable force meets immovable object," noting they're both "very clever" tacticians - but she discounted the quick dismissal theory.

I think that that was probably never a strong possibility, just because of president Trump. It's been clear from the start that he always wanted to have the exoneration of a Senate trial, not a mere dismissal. And he has been putting pressure on McConnell behind the scenes this whole time. And so that - if there was any leverage on the part of the Democrats, that was where the leverage sat. 

Stephanopoulos suggested, though, that the president had come around to McConnell's strategy of having no witnesses, if it's actually successful. Chris Christie thought that shift was "inevitable" - because, he said, "nobody does this better than Mitch McConnell."

And that's what Nancy Pelosi learned over the last three weeks, and what Chuck Schumer has learned time and time again.. And the president has learned over time, by watching all the judges he's gotten confirmed, and all the ways he's done things to make the president's legacy even better, that it's probably smart to listen to McConnell on this. 

He pointed to Pelosi's "serious error in political judgment"- holding back the articles - as the primary reason "this has been a really good three weeks for the president." He also noted that during this time, we haven't had the media doing special reports on the start of the trial and whatnot - so Trump was able to talk about other stuff, as he chose.

Patrick Gaspard did not agree with Christie so much, noting that they're "arguing balls and strikes after the game's already been decided."

The president of the United States has been impeached by Congress.... And you right that nobody's better than Mitch McConnell at obstructing governance."

Needless to say, there was some laughter when Christie pointed out that wasn't exactly what he said.  Gaspard continued, noting that

now the pressure is on him and his caucus and senators in states that were won by Hillary Clinton last time whose names are on the ballot now. And they have got to defend this process. 

Christie said the game was over, noting Trump's "not going to be removed;" he also expressed confidence that there won't be witnesses - and Bade agreed, even as Stephanopoulos mentioned both Mitt Romney and Susan Collins said they'd like to hear from folks. She pointed out they need four Republicans to go along with the Dems, and "that's going to be an uphill battle" given how well McConnell manages his caucus.

She's also watching the Trump-McConnell dynamic, which she finds "really interesting," pointing to their contrasting styles.

And yet, throughout this whole past few weeks, Trump has been deferring to McConnell over and over again regarding witnesses. McConnell privately convinced him, 'let's not call in Hunter Biden, let's not call in Joe Biden, let's do no witnesses, because if they bring in someone like Bolton, it's mutual assured destruction' is what he's told his members. 

Moving to the three Democratic candidates who are also senators -  Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and That Guy from Vermont - they talked about how the impeachment trial might impact them. Joe Biden and Mayor Pete - who don't have to worry about it - could gain some ground if they're out there pretty much alone.

Molly Ball agreed with Stephanopoulos that Iowa is "anybody's ballgame right now" and that the impeachment trial is on everyone's mind, particularly the Vermonter,  now leading in the polls, who

is not going to be able to be out there on the stump. And it's a potentially big problem to try to do these things simultaneously. The senators are required to be there at the trial, but they can't talk, and so they're sort of sitting on their hands watching the clock wind down.

She also noted that the debate this week "is going to be very important" given how tight the field is.

The issue of witnesses may also make a mess of things in New Hampshire - and beyond, conceivably, which Rachel Bade recognized. For the Dems, it's a blessing and a curse, she said. On the one hand, Dems have been waiting for months to hear from first-hand witnesses.

I mean, the top Republican talking point pushing back against these charges against the president has been, 'oh, your witnesses are second-hand information. None of them have actually talked to the president.' Well, Democrats want to hear from those people who have been talking to the president, Bolton. Mick Mulvaney. 

On the other hand, she said,

But if they decide, at the end of it, it's going to take about two weeks for them to go through opening arguments... if they get that fourth Republican to call in, you know, Bolton or some of these first-hand witnesses, then that could mean another two to four weeks, I mean, of impeachment trial all throughout the various caucuses in the states.

And that could be a big problem for Sanders and Warren, she said.

Christie got the last word on this., saying that the presidential candidate senators are "real fans of the -- of the Pelosi strategy, I guess, right?" and adding

Three weeks - three weeks they've waited now. And that extends them even further into the - into the season. Nancy Pelosi is not going to be getting any cards or letters from those four thanking her for her great, failed strategy.

Christie included Booker, who was still in the race when the panel was having their conversation - he dropped out today - and whether there are four senators in the hunt or only three, I suspect he's right on his point that none of them are thanking their lucky stars for Pelosi right about now.

What will be interesting is to see what Mitch McConnell does once he has the articles in hand. Does he rush forward to put the president out of his misery, or does he put the brakes on a little, to make it a little less comfortable for the candidates?  Stay tuned.

That's your extra credit -- see you around campus.