Poll Watch: A Dead Heat for Republicans

The last time we looked at a poll, we reviewed a CNN survey from late March, when it seemed that the president was doing a little better in the polls on the question of his job approval, but he was still viewed negatively on just about every question by every demographic other than Republicans and white men.

This time, let's look at some of the data from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll which was published earlier this month.  Here's the small print from the survey: 900 people were interviewed April 8- 11 405 who have only cell phones, 8 of whom were interviewed by cell but who also have a landline. What else do we need to know? Some demographics: most respondents were white (74%), most were non-Hispanic (88%), and most were registered voters (80%).  Got it? Oh - we may circle back around on this one, there are some embargoed questions that might be interesting.

The president's job approval on this poll is 39%, with 22% strongly approving and 17% somewhat approving. On the flip side, 13% somewhat disapprove, and 44% strongly disapprove. The numbers are the same as in the January survey, but the approval is down 4 points and the disapproval is up by the same number.

What else did we learn from this one?

• 45% of respondents are very interested in voting in the November election
• 47% of the registered voters prefer that we end up with a Democratic Congress, while 40% hope the Reps remain in control; 13% are unsure, an increase of 3 points since March, matched by the decrease in those hoping the Dems take control
• 40% want their vote to be a message that more Dems are needed to provide checks and balances on the president; 28% want the message to be we need more Reps to help Trump get his agenda through, and 29% want to send some other message

These numbers are not stacking up all that great for the Dems, but I do sort of understand them, particular the increase in the 'unsures' about whether a Democratically controlled Congress would be better, and the 6% decrease in sending a "we need more Dems" message. Many people, pundits and comics and ordinary folks like me, have wondered what the plan is for the Democratic party going forward.

So far, it seems to be 'flooding districts with money to not have a seat go to the Rs, or stay with the Rs' but that's not really a strategy. And, of course, the Democratic party is still saddled with the fox in sheep's clothing, the gentleman from Vermont, and his rabid followers who still insist that he would have beaten Trump in 2016. That wasn't helpful two years ago, and is not helpful now, either.

Another question related to Trump's indicted or guilty associates, and whether this is about these four people behaving badly, or if, since these people are in trouble, Trump must also be in trouble.

• 25% say this is just about the bad actors, down 3 points from December
• 37% say this is about Trump's potential wrongdoing, up 1 point 
• 36% say the are unsure, up 2 points from the December poll

Does this slight fluctuation really mean anything? Maybe, but what?  That people are growing tired of the investigations? That people can't tell, still, whether they think Trump has anything to worry about, or that he just surrounds himself with the wrong people? Or, does it have more to do with the success of Fox  News?

Of the people who say they voted in the 2015 Presidential election, 

• 21% voted for Trump because they liked him or his policies
• 16% voted for him because they didn't like Clinton or her policies
• 16% voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump or his policies
• 20% voted for Clinton because they liked her or her policies
• 10% didn't vote

I think it would be hard to find a more evenly matched outcome, and I also think I really wish the 10% had voted.

And finally, the Republicans were asked whether they were supporters of the Republican party, or of Trump himself.  This one was a dead heat -- 46% support the party, 46% support the president.  And that is something the Rs will either deal with, or run from. 

I think I know which way that's going to end up, but we'll see.