In Case You Missed It (v49)

Grab your cuppa and settle down for our review of last week's posts. It was kind of a tough week, I have to tell you, so be warned.

For Sunday School, I took one for the team,  I really did. I mean, Nancy Pelosi. Chuck Schumer. Steve Mnuchin. These three are not great interviews, especially when they are all pushing their agendas. I find it difficult to listen to each of them, much less all three of them in the same classroom session. But I did it, for you.

One of the best lines of the day? Mnuchin, talking about aid to states and municipalities. He of course used the White House talking points about "poorly managed" states and local governments.

But, he said,

We can deal with in January, if there's ongoing issues, we can pass more legislation. This will be the fifth bill. We don't have to get everything done at once. What we should do is get things done for the American public now, come back for another bill afterwards.

Seems he's planning on being around for a while. Anyone up for helping make that not happen?

I tried to find something more palatable for your Extra Credit, and even though I did devote quite a bit of time to Larry 'I Find it Hard to Understand Something Called Systemic Racism Because Lots of White People Voted for Barack Obama' Kudlow trying to do math with Dana Bash (who deserves a medal for putting up with him, I might add), I also spent some time in the Meet the Press classroom (again, taking one for the team) with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL).

Like Mnuchin the day before, Durbin hit the party line, saying that the Dems had dropped a trillion dollars from their plan, so the Rs should add a trillion to theirs - meeting in the middle, as it were.  There was more, too, including scathing remarks about

"this urban legend, which I say is an urban lie, about people sitting at home bingeing on Netflix and eating chocolate-covered cherries," simply is not happening 

And another thing?

Durbin argued that actually "doing something directly about the coronavirus" is more important than unemployment. 

...this notion that you're going to have the same instant results of testing that (the president) does with his White House visitors or Major League Baseball does overnight, that isn't the real world out here. The people are waiting in line for testing, and they're waiting for results from 5-12 days, which makes them almost pointless. That is a priority for us. Testing to deal with coronavirus is key to opening the economy and opening our schools.

Moving on, I believe my inclusion of the information below in my Wondering on Wednesday post may have been the reason why I had so many hits from Russian IP addresses in the second half of the week. We'll see if that's true with this re-post.

Moving on to QAnon - something I honestly NEVER anticipated typing - it seems we'll have an honest to goodness supporter of the conspiracy theorists in the House come January. As noted in this NPR story,

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a construction executive, won 57% of the vote in Georgia's heavily-Republican 14th Congressional District, handily defeating neurosurgeon John Cowan, who had pitched himself as, "All of the conservative, none of the embarrassment."

I did like Cowan's campaign slogan; there are actually loads of Rs who could probably use that, if they were willing to distance themselves from you know who.  And he, of course, was not able to distance himself from Ms. Greene.

President Trump congratulated Greene on Wednesday morning, calling her a "future Republican Star" who is "strong on everything."

Shocked, I amn't.

I was a little shocked, however, by the fervor with which the NRA's Wayne LaPierre tried to woo me over to his side, now that the lobbying organization has been hit with a lawsuit by NY's Attorney General Tish James (something I wasn't thrilled about).

And while LaPierre's love letter was the winner of the coveted Email of the Week, it didn't win me over.  He started out all lovey-dovey, with gentle tugs on my heart-strings, telling me about the "radical fringe of our country."

And here's how it was at the end, all capitalized and throbbing, or something.

This isn’t simply a fight for the continued existence of the NRA. It’s a fight for the continued existence of American freedom as we know it.

This is a fight for the Right-to-Carry permit in your pocket that you’re sure to lose if and when NRA goes out of business.

This is a fight for the guns in your safe that are certain to be banned and confiscated if NRA is forced to shut down.

And this is a fight for your God-given right to protect your life and your loved ones against violent criminals – who will still have their illegal guns long after you hear that knock at your door.

So please, join NRA today. Add your VOICE, your VOTE, and your MEMBERSHIP to our FIGHT.

Yeah, no - but thanks for trying.

And, blissfully, it was TGIF time, even though it wasn't the best week ever.

Now, why would I say something like that? Maybe because we're having to deal with this...

How about the new birther attacks, suggesting that Kamala Harris is not eligible to be Joe Biden's VP because, you know, she was born in the USA.  Does that sound familiar to anyone, maybe from a few years ago? And now, maybe trying to keep another person of color out of the White House? This is a tried and true tactic of the Trump squad; you can hear Tamara Keith's reporting that it's playing out in living color - again from tonight's All Things Considered.

So - your cuppa should be at least cold, if not empty, if checked out all of these posts - but at least you're up-to-date on the full and veritable pastiche from last week.

I'll be back later with Sunday School.  Word has it Jared's making a classroom appearance, and I know you'll not want me to miss that.

Sunday School 8/9/20

Can I tell you, my head hurts?

Seriously, watching these classroom sessions today was painful, for a host of reasons, not the least of which is that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are not the best interviews on the planet. But I did it, I did, and I'm going to share just a little bit from each of them.

First up? Pelosi and Dana Bash on CNN's State of the Union. First off, Pelosi said she agrees with Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) who apparently suggested that the president's executive orders, announced from his golf course in New Jersey, are "constitutional slop" - but even though her "constitutional advisors tell (her) they're absurdly unconstitutional," she's more interested in addressing the needs of the American people than in suing over the EOs. And she's hopeful they can resume negotiations.

And that's why we said we will come down a trillion, not that we cut out any of our priorities, but we shorten the length of time in which they would be in effect. And next year, we can extend them again... But we will come down a trillion, you go up a trillion, we will find our common ground here. Let's go to the table.

Bash wondered why Pelosi and the rest of them weren't working all weekend, but Pelosi said the offer is on the table to come back when the other guys want to put up some more money. And specifically on the $600 extra unemployment, Pelosi agreed that she didn't want to back off the $600, but that wasn't the reason for the stalemate.

We're at a stalemate because the Republicans have, from the start, never understood the gravity of the situation that we are in. They have called it a hoax. They have called it -- their -- delay, denial, extortion of this pandemic. And we cannot open our economy or open until -- our schools safely unless we address the pandemic. So, the basic thing is, they have ignored that. The problem has grown. And it has become an enormous economic problem.

Moving on to Mnuchin and Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. Mnuchin said that the president's first choice was that a deal be negotiated with the Dems but when that didn't happen, Mnuchin and Mark Meadows told Trump he had to move forward with executive action so that he could "help American workers and American people."

As to any additional negotiations, Mnuchin said he told both the Speaker and Minority Leader that "any time they have a new proposal" he's willing to listen.

But let me just say, you're right, we agreed with the Democrats. We both want to send more checks to the American workers. We want to send more PPP to those hardest hit businesses. We've said, let's pass legislation on the things that we agree on and knock these off one at a time. And they've refused to do that until they get their trillion dollars for the states.

And, he said, he "spoke to many governors" recently and that

We offered more money for the states. They still have 150 billion from last time. Most of them haven't even used half the money. The governors are saying, we need more money for education. We need help. And the president said, we'll give it to you, but not a trillion dollars.

On the payroll tax cut and Trump saying he'd like to cut the payroll tax if he's re-elected, which led the Dems to say he's going to cut Social Security and Medicare, since that's what the payroll tax funds.  Mnuchin says that's not the case.

There would be an automatic contribution from the general fund to those trust funds. The president, in no way, wants to harm those trust funds. So they'd be reimbursed just as they've always been in the past when we've done these types of things... And you just have a transfer from the general fund. 

And he reiterated that the Dems want to "bail out some states that were poorly managed" with their giant aid to state and local governments. But, he said,

We can deal with in January, if there's ongoing issues, we can pass more legislation. This will be the fifth bill. We don't have to get everything done at once. What we should do is get things done for the American public now, come back for another bill afterwards.

Confident, isn't he?

Finally, Schumer and George Stephanopoulos on This Week. Schumer said the Executive Orders "described in one word, could be paltry; in three words, unworkable, weak, and far too narrow." Using the unemployment benefit EO as an example, he said

...this is an unworkable plan. Most states will take months to implement it, because it's brand-new. It's sort of put together with spit and paste... And, to boot, it depletes the hurricane trust fund to defer this money -- to pay for this money, at a time when we're at the height of hurricane season. So, it makes no sense.

He was equally fond of the payroll tax deferral, it seems. He said that some companies will continue withholding the money because "they don't want their employees to be stuck with a huge bill in December." So - no money pumped into the economy, and he also said that money won't be put into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, so you better watch out if Trump is re-elected.

Finally, on election interference and new warnings from the Intelligence Community (China's rooting for Biden, Russia's rooting for Trump, and Iran is "also looking for opportunities), Schumer focused on Russia.

...  it is absolutely true that Russia is trying to interfere from public information and public statements. And we are trying, we Democrats are trying to stop it in the defense bill. We want to put tough sanctions on Russia, both before they do something and even more so, Chris Van Hollen, has a bill, bipartisan, I believe this with Marco Rubio to stop it. Trump is resisting. Why does Donald Trump not want to stop Russia from interfering in this election? You have to ask that question. It’s the wellspring of our democracy.

He said he believes that the information should be declassified and shared with the American public, as Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has suggested.  And, before the interview ended, he tossed this out to us, the American people.

And they should know one other thing, that these hearings that Johnson and Graham are doing are -- some of it is now, now it’s public, is based on false Russian intelligence about Joe Biden. In other words, false Russian reports about Joe Biden. They should be ashamed of themselves for what they’re doing, letting the Russians manipulate them and us, the American people, or tried to manipulate us.

Consider yourself warned.

Stay safe - continue following the rules - and look for some extra credit tomorrow, if you can take it.

See you around the virtual campus. 

Sunday School 5/10/20

In today's Sunday School, I've got a couple of the president's men - economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who talked with George Stephanopoulos on This Week, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who spent time with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. Let's take them in that order.

George sasked Kudlow about the two positive cases in the White House and the self-quarantining of Drs. Fauci, Redfield (CDC), and Hahn (FDA). He wondered if Kudlow would be following their lead. Kudlow said he'd take the advice of the White House medical folks, but was not ruling anything in - or out. Anyone who has contact with the president or vice president is tested daily, he said, and the goal is to keep everyone safe. 

George wondered "if the White House is not fully safe" with all that they're doing, "how can average Americans feel safe with the idea of going back to work?" Kudlow said there are probably 500 or more people working there, with only a small fraction of positives. And, he added, "... we have established guidelines from our health task force..."

And I ask your indulgence for a sec here, as we look at what WH Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said at last Friday's press briefing,

We have put in place the guidelines that our experts have put forward to keep this building safe, which means contact tracing. All of the recommended guidelines we have for businesses that have essential workers, we are now putting them in place here in the White House. So as America reopens safely, the White House is continuing to operate safely. (emphasis added)

I have to chuckle at that. I mean, we've had the WH Task Force wave guidelines in our faces for two months now, before the new reopening guidelines came out - and they're just now putting them into effect?

Anyway - back to Kudlow. There are all kinds of guidelines, for the WH, for states, for businesses, and so on, he said.

So, my point is, why don't we rely heavily on what the businesses, the free enterprise system can produce? Companies are very innovative. They know the job that has to be done. They know, on the one hand, folks have to be safe, must be safe. They know, on the other hand, we have to have some reopening as much as possible to deal with the economic problem, the pandemic contraction, as I call it. So, I think, between public and private health systems, we can do this.

It's not an either/or thing, he said; safety and reopening the economy go hand in hand. Other things that go hand in hand? The president and crazy comments on the economy. George noted that Trump said last week that all the jobs that have been lost will be back, and he wondered if Kudlow thought that was a keepable promise.

In a nutshell, April's numbers were bad, and May's are going to very difficult too, and so "it's going to take a while for the reopening to have an impact," Kudlow said, but "there's a glimmer of hope."

We had -- about 80% of it was furloughs and temporary layoffs. That, by the way, doesn't assure that you will go back to a job, but it's suggest strongly that the cord between the worker and the business is still intact. I think, hopefully, that has something to do with the $3 trillion of assistance, including the payroll protection plan.

Doing the math, he said it's around $9T worth of assistance for 175 million people. That gave George the chance to ask about another phase of stimulus, perhaps "another $2T," with aid to states and municipalities, testing, and direct assistance that the Dems are talking about, but that the White House and the Rs don't seem very interested. Kudlow said that

I think that many people would like to just pause for a moment and take a look at the economic impact of this massive assistance program, which is the greatest in United States history. That's all that is being said.

He also said that reports saying the WH and the Dems aren't talking are not true, but Kudlow and Kevin Hassett just had a conference call with around 50 Representatives, from both parties. There's another one planned for the Senate on Monday, so things are moving along.

Wallace asked about President Obama's comments about how the Trump administration has handled the crisis, Kudlow was surprised, saying "...I don't know what he's talking about." And he pointed to all the work they did with the governors and mayors and Congress and testing, and PPE, and ventilators,

you know, this President Trump, one thing shouldn't be lost here, he has -- and it's unusual in these emergency situations -- he's made great use of the private sector, talking about that earlier in terms of reopening in a safe manner. You know, we have relied very heavily on the smartest people in this country who run retail operations, pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies. You got automobile companies producing ventilators at a rapid rate. We’ve ramped up the testing. We have the world’s largest testing percentages so far. So, I just -- I don't understand what President Obama is saying. It just sounds so darn political to me.

He said that what they've done "may not be 100% perfect" but in the overall scheme of things, they've "created a massive health and safety infrastructure to deal with the pandemic" and the results show that what they've done is working. And when they reopen the economy?

I think, according to Congressional Budget Office and a bunch of private surveys, we’re going to see a very strong second half of the year, probably 20 percent economic growth.

And, "2021 could be a tremendous snapback in the US economy." And that's where they left it.

So, turning to Mnuchin, the first question was what the real unemployment rate is, given that the 14.7% we heard on Friday doesn't include 7 million jobs lost since mid-April, the millions not looking for work, and the underemployed. (Notably, the latter two are the same things that the Rs used to complain were not included in the Obama administration's unemployment figures.)

Did you know Mnuchin was a tap dancer in a previous life?

Chris, the real issue, and the president and I understand this, is the economic issues that American workers and American business are facing as a result of this virus and the decision to close the economy. And that's the reason why the president wants to work with the states to safely reopen the economy so we can safely get people back to work. So these are very, very large numbers. These are not large numbers because of the economy wasn't doing well. These are large numbers because we've shut down the economy. And I would just highlight the biggest component of this was in travel and retail and leisure and not a surprise we've closed down major parts of the economy.

Wallace pushed back, saying that "it's important that we face what the real numbers are." And according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that number for April is 22.8%, not including the 7M who lost jobs in the second half of the month. "So, aren't we talking close to 25 percent at this point, which is Great Depression neighborhood?"

Chris, we could be. But let me just emphasize, unlike the Great Depression where you had economic issues that led to this, we closed down the economy so it's -- it wouldn't be a surprise if you closed down the economy that ... half of the workforce is -- half the people didn't work. And that's why we're very focused on rebuilding this economy and getting it back to where it was... So you are correct. The reported numbers are probably going to get worse before they get better, but that's why we're focused on rebuilding this economy. We'll have a better third quarter. We'll have a better fourth quarter. And next year is going to be a great year.

Wallace continued to press on the numbers, pointing to widespread losses in multiple sectors, including white collar and government jobs, retail bankruptcies, and a report from the Congressional Budget Office saying even at the end of 2021, the unemployment rate "will still be 9.5%." And then he dropped the question: "Are your rosy predictions based on economic reality or the November election?"

Mnuchin pointed out that all these numbers "impact real people," and that his numbers "aren't rosy." We're going to have "a very, very bad second quarter" but then, we'll see a bounce back, and he said his predictions are based on his personal views and that

I've personally heard from many of the doctors that have vaccines and virals in trials and their expectations of being able to get a vaccine by the end of this year and having real viral treatments, the advent of testing. All these things are going to help give American business and American workers the confidence to reopen in a careful and a deliberate way.

And when Wallace questioned the food supply chain, and folks saying it's broken "because they can't get their meat and they can't get their produce from the field to market," Mnuchin basically said he's a glass half full kind of guy, not the other kind.

If you had told the American public we would virtually shut down the entire supply chains and still be able to feed America and get drugs to America and continue to do critical work, I couldn't be more pleased how Americans are pulling together to get through this.

And, the task force is focusing on issues like then when they see them.

The conversation moved on to reopening. Wallace quoted Trump, who said "will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon." He also quoted Patrick Harker, head of the Philly Federal Reserve, who says reopening too soon and having the virus spike, "not only would this be a health catastrophe, but it would reverse the recovery as well."  And Harker predicts "a painful economic contraction of GDP in 2021 as shutdowns are reintroduced," Wallace said. 

And he asked if Mnuchin agrees there's "a considerable risk" to reopening, economically and from a public health standpoint.

Chris, if we do this carefully working with the governors I don't think there's a considerable risk. Matter of fact, I think there's a considerable risk of not reopening. You're talking about what would be permanent economic damage to the American public and we're going to reopen in a very thoughtful way that gets people back to work safely, that has them social distanced.

He talked about teleworking, and maybe there being appointments to shop at retail stores, but  "businesses will be able to reopen." Mnuchin also said that certain areas, like New York, had "very devastating impacts" but others didn't, and all of that stuff is being monitored.

And, moving on to a potential new phase of stimulus, Wallace referred to comments Kudlow made about waiting until late May or even later to make a decision, and to Trump's comments that "we were in a rush to get the money out to people. We have gotten the money out." His question this time? "With 33 million people unemployed, with the Paycheck Protection Program money running out by the end of this month, with state budgets cratering, this administration is in no rush?" 

Well, Chris, the president and I have been very clear on this and we're in 100%  agreement....What the president and I are now saying is, we spent a lot of money, a lot of this money is not even into the economy yet, let's take the next few weeks -- I'm having discussions with both the Republicans and the Democrats to understand these issues. The president and I are having conversations with outside people with business. We just want to make sure that before we jump back in and spend another few trillion of taxpayers' money that we do it carefully. 

We had an emergency process, it went quickly. We're there to help the American people. We're going to be considerate and if we need to help the American people -- in every aspect of this, as I've said before, we're willing to spend whatever it takes. But whatever it takes needs to be done carefully.

Finally, Wallace wondered about the next phase. The president says there won't be one without a payroll tax cute. The Dems (and even some Reps) say that won't help people who aren't working. And Mitch McConnell says there won't be one without protecting businesses from liability in case someone claims they got the coronavirus from their company. So, how will there be another phase with so much opposition from all sides?

Well we're absolutely pushing for the payroll tax cut. It's an incentive to get people back to work. It's delivering money to the American public and to business in a very effective way. And that will be one of the components. 

You've heard Mitch McConnell talk about liability. We agree with that completely. The Democrats have been asking for more money for states. We've been very clear that we're not going to do things just to bail out states that were poorly managed, but we're going to look at all these issues.

Before wrapping things up, Mnuchin said no matter what they do, it'll be bipartisan and they'll "make sure we get all these things included."

Got all of that? Tippity tappity, we're going to do everything including stuff we're not going to do, but tippity tappity things will be great before you know it, as he dances off the stage.

See you around the virtual campus, from a safe, clean-hands, cutely-masked distance. And be sure to check back tomorrow for some Extra Credit.

Quick Takes (v51): So Bright I've Gotta Wear Shades

"Let... the sun shine in, let... the sun shine in, the sun shine in!"

You know, transparency and stuff like that. Like, the government  after messing with the IGs appointed to give us transparency on the trillions of our dollars being spent on coronavirus stimulus packages.

The move follows several steps Trump has taken to combat oversight of the bailout fund. After signing the relief package into law last month, the president issued a signing statement saying he would not allow the special inspector general for the relief program to report to Congress without his supervision.

So, with that as background, let's look at an exchange from the White House coronavirus update (you may know them by their other name, Trump campaign rallies) the other day, on the subject of transparency. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was asked

Mr. Secretary, given the size of the taxpayer dollars that are going out the door, have you fellas come to a different way of thinking about the need for oversight — independent oversight on behalf of the taxpayer?

Mnuchin's response? Here's the first part.

We have independent oversight. We supported it in the last legislation. Let me be very clear: We have a new inspector general. The President has already picked someone for that position. We look forward to the person being confirmed. We have an oversight committee of Congress that many of them have already been appointed.

 Yes, we look forward to the confirmation of someone who worked on the president's impeachment defense - much of which was based on not being transparent and not letting others be transparent, either - to be the IG of something about which the White House doesn't want transparency.

Now, the White House pointed out that Brian Miller, the White House lawyer tapped for the role, has previously been confirmed for an IG role in the General Services Administration. Dems, however, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, are not impressed.

This oversight position, which will be responsible for overseeing hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, requires complete independence from the president and any other interested party to assure the American people that all decisions are made without fear or favor, To nominate a member of the president’s own staff is exactly the wrong type of person to choose for this position.

It's good that Mnuchin understand the importance of being open with us, though, and he even provided an example of his understanding for us to, you know, understand.

And let me just say, we put up last week, for full transparency — we had no obligation to do this.  We put up — you can go to Treasury.gov — full transparency on the money that had been sent out on the PPP across states, showing all the big lenders, how it was distributed.  No one lender did more than 4 percent.  Showed the businesses.

Well, if you tell me I can go to Treasury.gov and get a dose of full transparency, you can be sure I'm going to do that. Here's a link to the slide deck that Mnuchin referred to as an example of unobligated full transparency. Note that I had previously shared the slide on the distribution of loans by dollar amount in my Sidebar on Small Business Funding.

First, the slide that "showed the businesses." This slide showed the breakdown in number of loans, dollars, and percentage of total PPP dollars by NAIC subcategory. The top five?

1. Construction: 177,905 loans, over $44.9B, 13.12%
2. Prof/Scientific/Technical Svcs: 208,360 loans, over $43.2B, 12.65%
3. Manufacturing: 108,863 loans, over $40.9B, 11.96%
4. Health Care and Social Assistance: 183,542 loans, over $39.8B, 11.65%
5. Accommodation/Food Services: 183,542 loans, over $39.8B, 8.91%

I get that it would have been extremely difficult, in a slide deck, to provide more of a breakdown on the businesses, so the categories was reasonable as a first step - but there should be a sortable database made available providing much more data than that.

But the slide "showing all the big lenders" was anything but reasonable and anything but transparent. 

I'd guess that JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are up there on the list, probably in the first two or three, but who are the rest of them? And who did they primarily lend to, by NAIC subcategory, or by size of the company, and who lended to the publicly traded companies? And what's the reason for withholding the names in the first place? Is that to prevent us from seeing which banks are collecting all the fees, and in effect, getting their own little bailout?

I know, I'm asking too much, aren't I? I mean, shouldn't I be satisfied by Mnuchin's final comments on this?

So, again, the President and I very much believe in full transparency.  We’re spending a lot of money, and we want to make sure that it’s done effectively and fairly.

No. I shouldn't be, and you shouldn't be either.

Sunday School 3/15/20

Today, I sat in on three classrooms, looking for discussion on different aspects of the coronavirus threat.

So, I've got Dr. Tony Fauci, our top expert on infectious diseases talking to Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday (he was in all the classrooms today, I'm hoping from a remote and socially distanced location), SecTreas Steven Mnuchin talking with Jon Karl on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, and a couple of governors, Mike DeWine (R-OH) and J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) who chatted with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press.   

We'll start with Mnuchin, fresh off his negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the second coronavirus aid bill. Mnuchin denied we're in a recession, which a lot of people are saying is the current state of things.

I don't think so. But I think the real issue is not the economic situation today. The real issue is what economic tools are we going to use to make sure we get through this. This is a unique situation...We're addressing issues for small and medium-sized businesses. And later in the year, obviously the economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.

And, he tried to explain to us why the president is so focused on the stock market "because it's just one indication of the economy that gives people confidence."

Karl brought up Trump's Oval Office address, noting that there was pretty strong negative reaction to it, not just from the stock markets; he also noted the false statements that were made, and wondered how it could have happened. Ironically, after his immediately prior comment about Trump focusing on the market because it gives us confidence, he said

Well, let me just first comment on your reaction to the stock market. Because the stock market is going to go up; it's going to go down. We can't focus on, every day, the move.

O-kay.  And then, speaking of the Oval Office address, he said Trump

...wanted to address a very important point, which was he made the move to shut down travel so that he could shut down more cases coming in. He wanted to reassure the American public. I don't think, in an Oval Office address, you're going to address every single issue as you're discussing it...

Karl tried again, asking how does he get things wrong about his own proposals, and Mnuchin said he doesn't think Trump got it wrong "at all." And when Karl said "I mean, cargo's not banned" here's the response.

And we were very clear that people misinterpreted the comments on cargo and we immediately put out a statement to clarify that. So the president said this is similar to China and China cargo is not banned.

It was almost impossible to misinterpret what the president said. Here are those words, as reported on the White House website. Referencing the suspension of travel from Europe for 30 days,

... these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing.  

Mnuchin also spent a lot of time talking about tools: tools they have, and tools they'll ask Congress for if needed.  And on the bill he worked out with Pelosi, that hopefully will get Senate attention this week,

So we were -- we were constantly in touch, updating the bill and making changes. And, yes, our focus is especially small and medium-sized businesses that are really hit hard in specific industries. Again, this is going to be a process with working with Congress. But, again, what I want to focus on is, there is an economic situation, and the American public should know that the president, the vice president, the entire Cabinet is going to be focused on what economic things we need to do.

And now, let's see what Dr. Fauci had to say to Chris Wallace. He's not thrilled with what's happening in the airports where Americans are coming back home from Europe and need screening. The pictures are less than comforting - people packed in like sardines in a can, physically touching people next to them whether they want to or not, for five, six, seven hours or more.

Yes, I mean we'd like to not see crowds like that. I think what people need to understand, if you're an American citizen, if you are a family member, that you can get back. You don't need to rush back. You'll be able to get back. But it's understandable how when people see a travel ban, they immediately want to hunker and get home... 

He's not sure what can be done about it, other than letting people know that Americans and their family members don't have to rush back from Europe and they can take some time and avoid the crowd.

On his comments before Congress, including the part about the mortality rate being 10 times the 0.1% mortality with the flu,

Well, the -- I would say three things, Chris. One it's brand new so we don't have any prior experience about what it's going to do, what it's dynamics are going to be. Number two, it spreads very easily. There's no doubt about that... And number three, it's very serious in the sense of morbidity and mortality particularly among -- and very heavily weighted towards - individuals who are more susceptible, the elderly and those with underlying conditions.  

Wallace pushed on the contagiousness and lethality being worse than the flu.

Well, yes. I mean, it just is. And we've got to face that fact. We've got to be realistic. I mean, we've got to realize -- and I said that at the hearing, that things are going to get worse before they get better but the kinds of things we're doing now will hopefully mitigate that... 

Wallace questioned the duration of the thing, since both the president and Fauci mentioned eight weeks a couple of days ago, and asked if Fauci was suggesting that "if we do everything right we could be on the other side of the curve" in that amount of time.

-- first of all, we have to say that people don't misunderstand. We are not sure what the duration is going to be, number one. Number two, if you look at what happened in China... it started off China, you know, two or three months ago, they started coming down within a two-month period. So if you're talking about reflecting what went on there, it's going to be about that time that we hopefully in the next couple of months are going to see the direction it's going to go. Hopefully, what we're doing, in a very aggressive way of containment and mitigation, we'll be able to not only flatten it in the sense of not as many cases, but also diminish the duration. 

Fauci said he doesn't really know what the president is talking about when he points to the Obama administration (one of five or six administrations other than this one in which Fauci has served), and rules and regulations that hampered testing.

You know, Chris, to be honest with you, I'm not sure what regulations or what it was that they're talking about. I really mean that. I mean, I'm trying to figure out what it is that these things were in place that were able to or inhibiting. But one thing that I do know now is that the ability to get a test had some regulatory and other restrictions on it that the FDA now has just gotten rid of. 

And as to our healthcare system being overwhelmed, given we have less than a million hospital beds and only 45,000 ICU beds, we have only 160,000 ventilators. Fauci said the models are only as good as the assumptions used to run them, but

If we have a worst-case scenario, we've got to admit it, we could be overwhelmed. Are we going to have a worst-case scenario? I don't think so. I hope not. What are we doing to not have that worst-case scenario? That's when you get into the things that we're doing...preventing infections from going in with some rather stringent travel restrictions... containment and mitigation from within. So, at a worst-case scenario, anywhere in the world, no matter what country you are, you won't be prepared. So our job is to not let that worst-case scenario happen. 

And finally, we turn to Meet the Press and the governors, starting with Pritzker of Illinois, home of the nightmare that was (or could still be) O'Hare Airport.

We knew when the president gave the orders that European travel back to the United States was going to be cut off, that there would be an influx of people, Americans and others, that would come before the final cutoff. So what should've happened? They should've increased the Customs and Border Patrol numbers. And they should've increased the number of CDC personnel on the ground doing those checks. They did neither of those.

And he expects it will be worse today, with even more flights coming in and CBP seeming to be "completely unprepared."  As to any "reassurance" from the administration on getting more folks on the ground?

Well, here's what I got. I got a call at about 11:00 last night after that tweet from a White House staffer who yelled at me about the tweet. That is what I got. Now, we've been talking to Customs and Border Patrol officials directly on the ground at O'Hare. I've been working with the mayor and our senators to make sure that we're getting the federal government to pay attention to this problem because we can't have it happen all day today.

DeWine, who's recognized as one of the governors who is pretty strictly following the guidance from Fauci and the other experts, was asked if he's going to close restaurants and bars in Ohio.

We're certainly looking at that. You know, we started off last week closing the schools. We reduced the number of people gathered together to 100. You know, we've restricted access to our nursing homes, to our prisons. So we're taking tough steps... all the people I've been consulting...they say, "Look. Every day counts so much. And you cannot wait. You've got to move very, very quickly." And look, these are tough decisions. We're inconveniencing people. It's making people's lives change. But we've got to save lives. Everything we're doing is to save lives.

DeWine noted the experts have said "we're always way, way behind in what we know" and that while infection rates in his state have just about doubled several days in a row, testing is ramping up and the rates are going to go up as testing comes online. And,

what I'm telling the people of Ohio, look, none of this should be a surprise. We know there's a bunch of people out there who are carrying this virus around. And that's part of the message, particularly to young people who maybe aren't so worried about it, the 20-somethings. Look, you may not get really, really sick. You may get lucky. But you may take that to your grandmother, who's 80. And we know people in their eighties, the mortality rates at least 15-20%.

Pritzker was asked the same question, specifically with regard to the massive St. Patrick's celebration in Chicago. 

With regard to St. Patrick's Day, we shut down the parade. We didn't color the river green, as we usually do. And I have advised that we need to keep our crowds smaller. And yesterday we say that -- you know, we put a limit of 250 people in gatherings. We cancelled all the gatherings larger than that. And then yesterday what we saw was many young people who think they're impervious to this went out and celebrated... People aren't understanding that, even if you're healthy, even if you're young, that you may be a carrier. And you're going to hand it over to somebody else. COVID-19 is spreading because even healthy people can be walking around, giving it to other people. So we need to go on lockdown.

But, he said, there are issues with keeping open and with shutting down, outside of the pandemic itself. The decisions, he said.

They're also about people's livelihoods. So we're actually looking hard at that decision making today. We obviously saw what happened in Europe. Nowhere in the United States really has there been a lockdown on bars and restaurants, but it's something that we're seriously looking at.

Both states have primaries on Tuesday, and that they previously had said they plan on going forward. Todd wondered if they were hesitating now. DeWine said.

We're going to go ahead. But we're telling people, again, to be careful. The good thing in Ohio is we have basically four weeks of voting. People can vote today. We're urging them to go vote today. They can vote Monday. They've got 13 hours on Tuesday. So that just naturally spreads it out. We're asking them to be very, very careful.

Pritzker said they've taking similar steps.

We have actually lengthened our hours of early voting. We have mail balloting. We've had record mail balloting this year. So we're going to go ahead with it. But we've been extra careful at all of our polling places...we're making sure that it's safe for people to come and vote. 

Todd left this discussion noting "I have a feeling it may be the last primaries we have for a little while." And that's a whole nother can of worms to think about.

See you around campus.

Wondering on Wednesday (v178)

Didja watch the Mueller testimony before the House Judiciary and/or Intelligence Committees?

I confess, I did not. I was in the garden, listening to my favorite NPR shows, so I only caught soundbites that people thought were important. Things like the part where Mueller said he did not exonerate Trump, that he didn't charge him because of the DOJ ruling that you can't charge a sitting president, and that Trump could be indicted for obstruction after he leaves office. You know, the kind of stuff we already knew.

So, in a nutshell, it was just what we thought it would be: a bunch of people trying to score points, some of whom did and some of whom really only swung and missed. And yes, if you're wondering, I appreciate that I'm covering multiple sports there, so no need to point that out.

But here's the part that I think is truly worthy of wonder. In his opening statement to both committees, Mueller reminded us that Russia did try and interfere in our 2016 election. Here's what he said to the Judiciary gang:

And let me say one more thing. Over the course of my career, I've seen a number of challenges to our democracy. The Russian government's effort to interfere in our election is among the most serious. As I said on May 29, this deserves the attention of every American.

Similarly, he told the House Select Committee on Intelligence this:

Finally, as I said this morning, over the course of my career, I have seen a number of challenges to our democracy. The Russian government's effort to intervene in our election is among the most serious. I am sure this Committee agrees. 

So, is anyone listening to that, or are they only listening to themselves ask questions (including a number of them that Mueller flat out said he couldn't or wouldn't answer, but they wasted everyone's time on them anyway)? What are our elected representatives doing about this type of threat, that is happening right now, which Mueller told them could come from other countries too?

In other wondering, there is concern that the budget deal worked out by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin that raises the debt ceiling, and more, will have plenty of detractors on both sides - but it has to be passed this week, we're told, before the House leaves for the rest of the summer, because we could be put in a position of not being able to pay our bills before they get back.

So we have to wonder, will the detractors make a mess of things and not let the bill pass in the Senate? Here's the most colorful answer to that question, and it comes from Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), who wasn't sure what he was going to do, but suggested it would be appropriate to "color (him) doubtful."

It may taste like pumpkin pie, but I've got a lot of questions. Cutting spending around here is like going to heaven. Everyone wants to go to heaven, but nobody's quite ready to take the trip... 

Now that today's shenanigans are out of the way, maybe we'll quickly see where everyone lands on the spending plan.

And finally, turning back to Mueller's testimony, the only other thing I have to wonder is, what will the Dems do next?

Sunday School 7/29/18

Just a couple of classrooms today -- Fox News Sunday to hear from Steven Mnuchin, Trump's Treasury Secretary, and CNN's State of the Union, because Anthony Scaramucci.

First, Mnuchin. Wallace asked him if the report on the 2nd quarter GDP - 4.1% - was something that was sustainable, and if the president's suggestions that we could see 8% or 9% growth realistic.  Not so much, it seems.

Well, Chris, we've been very clear since the campaign, the president's economic plan has always consisted of tax reform, trade relief and regulatory relief and we said we're going to achieve 3% or higher sustained GDP, and that's where we are. The 4%, 4.1% was a terrific order, but we are very focused on the long-term sustained economic growth, which our plans have had. 

Wallace noted that the 2nd quarter was when farmers were pumping out exports in advance of the Trump tariffs and that the Federal Reserve is not so bullish on the growth, predicting we'd be back around 2% within two years. And, he talked about both Trump and Veep Mike Pence sticking their noses in the conversation about the Fed's intent to raise interest rates. Wallace wondered about whether the administration respects the Fed's independence.

Well, Chris, I think they do and we as an administration absolutely support the independence of the Fed and the president has made it clear that this is the Fed's decision. So, these are really more just comments saying as interest rates are going up, it's something that the president has a concern. But let me be clear, he respects the independence of the Fed, and the issue is the market expects interest rates to keep going up. So, the only question is how far, and for how long? And we think the Fed will be very careful in managing the economy.

They also talked about tech stocks, what with the Facebook and Twitter drops this week. Wallace wondered about investors souring on social media tech stocks, since they've been such big drivers of both economic growth and of the rise in the stock markets. Mnuchin pointed out that diversified portfolios are great investments and that

As you can see, the market is not efficient. The fact that you could have a one-day correction of these magnitudes just goes to show you that in the short term, the market is not necessarily efficient, but I'm not concerned about this at all. 

And, of course, they talked about trade, and agriculture. On that last part, Wallace pointed out previous comments made by Mnuchin that were against corporate welfare, and asked

So, when did handouts to farmers become strong, good, solid, conservative policy?

Mnuchin doesn't think the $12B bailout (bale-out, it's been called) is a handout.

So, it would be one thing if we were just subsidizing markets, and that's not what we are doing here. This is a -- this is a short-term solution to deal with the retaliatory tariffs where you have people who put tariffs, which, by the way are against WTO rules and unfair and targeting our farmers. So, we are sticking up for our farmers so they don't get hurt in these trade discussions. These are not long-term subsidies for the industry... the focus is trade, not aid...

Focus - that's a key word on which to segue to the conversation with The Mooch - because focus is something that seems missing in this interview. For example, Tapper asked if Scaramucci thought Michael Cohen was a liar, as Rudy Giuliani now says.

And so, when I said that, I meant that, because I - I had known Michael for 10 years, known the president for a very long time. And my- my guess what is that they were very loyal to each other. When your house gets raided and your apartment and your hotel room gets raided and you get jarred by the FBI, maybe that has changed now...

But look, at the end of the day, you're -- you're in the biggest aquarium in the world. The White House is literally like a fishbowl, and everybody's micro-analyzing every single thing that's happened to you in your life, which is one of the main reasons why people, Jake, don't run for office, because they don't like every single thing that they have done in their lives put on State of the Union. 

So -- so, here we are now. My - my guess is, is that this is a rift that will continue. I'm not exactly sure what the criminality is here. To me, it doesn't look like it's criminal,when I step  back and look at it and try to look at it objectively. And I think the president's probably very frustrated because he's got a great economic plan going. He's got great things going on, whether it's in North Korea or the potentiality for a deal with the EU now. And so this is one of those side-tracking things and I think it has to be very frustrating. 

So: is Michael Cohen a liar? Who the heck knows. The rest of the interview went similarly, as you might have expected.

See you around campus.

Sunday School 3/11/18

The first - and, it turns out - only classroom I entered today was NBC's Meet the Press with Chuck Todd doing his darnedest to look wide awake (more on that in a minute) on this first day of daylight savings time.

Todd opened the show with a little bit about North Korea, and tariffs, and then did a 'that was the week that was' kind of thing.'

Monday was former Trump campaign aide Sam Nunberg insisting he wouldn't comply with his Mueller subpoena, and then Friday he complied with it. Tuesday was the day Gary Cohn announced his resignation, over the tariffs. Not mentioned here was that Cohn allegedly was going to resign last year when Trump talked about "good people" in the white supremacists movement, but that wasn't enough to push him over the edge. Tariffs apparently were.

Wednesday was Stormy weather day - the restraining order against the porn star with the disclosure agreement, and also the day Mueller cast a shadow over the beautiful Seychelles by making a Russia connection. Thursday, the tariffs were signed, causing retaliation promises from allies. Friday it was North Korea, and "I alone can fix it" Trump, and then the campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Bottom line, the head-snapping week of screaming headlines and seat-of-the-pants decisions is indeed the presidency Donald Trump promised and the presidency he seems most comfortable with.

So - the stage is set, right?  Lots of things going on this week, some of it important stuff like the tariffs, and North Korea. And the first guest was Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, waking up even earlier on the West Coast to participate.

The conversation started on North Korea, and us being tough now, and the sanctions we've put in place are doing the trick and forced Kim to the table. And they talked over suggestions that this meeting would legitimize the murderous thug and his regime, and about what might derail the meeting, and where it might take place, and so on. And then the conversation  turned to Trump picking on the press when he was in Pennsylvania.

And "sleepy-eyes Chuck Todd, that sleepy son-of-a-bitch" (told you I'd get to that part) was not having the picking on the press part of it.

So, the image of an American president encouraging boos of the American press corps - of the American press corps, and discouraging boos of a dictator from North Korea. Your reaction, sir?

Mnuchin mentioned some "misreporting" about trump, and talked about Trump's policies, and so Todd tried again.

Alright, I understand you wanted to get back on a economic message, but the president of the United States in the past has been a beacon of freedom of the press. Instead last night, he was praising authoritarian figures in China and North Korea and encouraging boos of the American press. Does this mean it is... this American president is no longer going to be preaching about the values of freedom of the press and democracy around the world?

Mnuchin advised that "of course" the president believes the freedom of the press and in democracy, and protecting democracy, and suggested again that the conversation should be focused on those policies.

You keep saying that's what we should be focused on, then why can't the president be...  Would you call last night's speech a focused speech on that?

Mnuchin suggested the press shouldn't focus so much on the campaign rallies. Getting progressively more snitful, Todd did not stop.

So should we stop covering the campaign rallies? Do you think it's a mistake then for us to cover them at all? That it doesn't matter what he say? If it doesn't matter what he says there. If we are to dismiss everything he says at a campaign rally as I think you're trying to imply, then are you saying we shouldn't cover these things?

Mnuchin: you're putting words in my mouth... talk about policies, I came here to talk about his policies...

I wanted to talk about those with you. Obviously, he chose not to do that. Look, final question for you. Many people including myself raise there kids to respect the office of the presidency and the President of the United States. When he uses vulgarity to talk about individuals, what are they supposed to tell their kids?

Mnuchin said he'd be focusing, with his kids, on what the president is doing to protect the country, us, and our economy. And, of course, even though that was supposed to be the final question, there were more.

CT: So he's not a moral - don't worry about his values, don't worry about him as a role model.

SM: I never said that whatsoever. So I don't know why you're putting these words in what I'm trying to say, OK? So again - I am very comfortable with what we're doing, OK? And again, I think you're trying to take this out of perspective, and imply something I'm not saying.

CT: Fair enough, what do you... what are you supposed to say when he's using these vulgarities, to kids?

SM: Again, I think you should be focused on what the policies are. He's using these vulgarities in the context of a campaign rally and obviously, there were a lot of funny moments on, on, in that rally. 

CT: Yeah, they were hilarious. Anyway, Secretary Mnuchin, I appreciate your coming on, again.  I know you had to wake up extra early. That I appreciate. Thank you very much sir.

And finally, FINALLY, it was over.

I gave Mnuchin a lot of credit, I did. The point would have come, I think, where I would have just said "listen, put your big boy panties on and get over it! This president has a love-hate relationship with the media -- that's not a secret, is it?  And he loves getting under people's skin, like he's clearly gotten under yours. You got me up early for THIS? And one more thing - if you need help with parenting, isn't Dr. Phil on your network? Why don't you give him a call?"

Also on the show? Elizabeth Warren, who said she wasn't running for president in 2020.

So look, I am not running for president of the United States. I am running for the United States Senate. 2018. Massachusetts. Whoohoo!

And again.

 I already told you, I have no intention of running for the United States - for president.

And again.

Look, what I'm telling you is that I am in these fights every day. For the people of Massachusetts, and for the people across this country. This government is working better and better and better for a thinner and thinner slice at the top. I am in these fights, and I am in this fight to retain my Senate seat in 2018. That's where I'm focused. That's where I'm going to stay focused. I'm not running for president.

And again.

I am not running for president.

Chuck Todd finally acquiesced.

I know. Duly noted.

And so, you see, I had no energy left for any other classrooms.

See you around campus (and again) I mean, I'll see you around campus (and again) I will (and again) I'll see you around campus.

I. Will. See. You. Around. Campus.