Quick Takes (v61): When Soundbites and Facts Collide

On Wednesday, Andrew Cuomo, my Sonofa Gov, exerted his princely powers and declared a 'state emergency' and released a new seven-point-plan to address gun violence. He said that "we went from COVID to the epidemic of gun violence and the fear and death that goes along with it."  And, he said,

This is a national problem, I get it. But somebody has to step up and somebody has to address it.

Somebody does need to address it, there's no doubt about that. We can argue about whether Cuomo's the guy, or whether it's Congress, or whether it's local law enforcement... truth be told, it's all of them, I'd suggest, but it's not my place to try and steal Cuomo's thunder. After all, there are plenty of people around to do that. 

Like my Congressman, Rep. John Katko (R-Trump Wants Me to be Primaried). Katko's a former federal prosecutor; he helped take down some violent gangs back in the day here in Syracuse, so he has some experience in this area. He's also a Republican in a purple district, NY-24. He voted for the second impeachment, and led the charge to get a bill passed that would have established an independent, 9/11-style investigation into the insurrection. Neither of those have endeared him to his hard-core constituents. 

So, attacking Cuomo seems safe, and that's what Katko did, when he blamed state policies for the increase in violent crime.

Right now, in New York State the laws are terrible. Bail reform is a good example of that, and defunding the police. The fact that the governor is admitting that his policies have failed, the policies of the Democrats have failed, is a good step in the right direction.

Katko thinks we need a stronger stand against gang violence, and says that, while Cuomo's plan includes millions for jobs for at-risk youth, targeting high-crime areas and illegal gun sales, it might not be enough.

It’s better than nothing, but New York city defunded their police by one billion dollars with a 'b' and look what happened there, so he’s starting to understand that he’s got a mess on his hands that he helped make.

OK - those are the soundbites, here are the facts. 

According to Fox News, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo slammed the New York City Council’s move strip the New York Police Department of $1 billion in funding, questioning “what it means” and calling for concrete action.

"I don’t know what it means," Cuomo said during a press briefing Wednesday. “What does that mean? Does this mean I am less safe? Where did you take the billion dollars from? Does it mean I am more safe? Does it have any effect on police abuse? I don’t know what it means...”

The truth is, like many people, Cuomo thought calls to defund the police hurt Democrats in last year's elections.

I think 'defund the police' went too far. I think law and order makes a difference in people's lives... I think 'defund the police' was a really unfortunate expression. I don't think anyone meant it literally.

Yes, he wants police departments to reform. Yes, he doesn't think much of Bill de Blasio, and taking a swipe at him is good fun, but in the end, he's not a big gun behind the 'defund' movement - he favors rethinking policing, and required all departments in the state to submit community-supported plans to do just that, or lose state funding. Did Katko not know that?

And, let's look at bail reform, another Katko complaint, and some crime statistics. The truth is, bail reform - and COVID-related prisoner releases - are not significant contributors to the increase in gun violence. And that's coming from the NY Post, hardly a Cuomo-supporting media outlet.

While the surge in gunplay is undeniable, a Post analysis of department data found that most people released under the criminal justice reforms or amid the pandemic had no known ties to the bloodshed — with criminal justice experts saying the cops should focus on the flow of illegal guns into the city instead of playing the “blame game.”

Here are the details, from the NYPD's own data (emphasis added):

• There's been a 46% increase in shootings (528 this year through June 30th, compared to 362 in the same time period last year), but the NYPD has closed only 28% of them, about half the normal close rate.
• Of the roughly 11,000 released under the new bail laws, only 91 have any connection to a shooting, and only one person has been charged. Over half of them were either victims (25) or witnesses (24); the remaining 41 are documented as either suspects (31) or "perps" (10) in the NYPD data.

And for good measure, here are the numbers on COVID releases.

• 2500 or so inmates were released from Rikers to reduce overcrowding during the pandemic; some 275 have been rearrested (through mid-June), but only nine are linked to shootings. One was arrested, two are "persons of interest," and three are witnesses. The other three? They were victims of shootings.

If these are the facts, why do politicians (and law enforcement officials) insist on saying something else? Richard Aborn, who's president of the Citizens Crime Commission, thinks this is why.

There's a blame game going on, and I don't think it's helpful. I think it would be helpful if the NYPD [issued] a clear report explaining why they think the uptick in shootings is linked to bail reform.

Maybe Rep. Katko would consider doing the same?