Grains of Salt (v53): Community Gridlock (Pt. 2)

In Part 1 of this series, I gave some background on the I-81 project, the current lawsuit, and state Supreme Court Justice Gerard Neri's decision to allow work related to I-481 - but not the viaduct removal - to continue.

In this post, I explore some of the implications of his decision, starting with his comments on Micron.

The Micron project is expected to be transformational for Central New York. Over the next two decades, the massive chip manufacturing facility, about 14 miles north of the viaduct, is expected to bring tens of thousands of direct and ancillary jobs. The company is promising a $100B investment, some of which is already flowing into the community.

In his decision, CNY Central reported, Neri said

Unless Respondents [NYS, City of Syracuse] are arguing that statements by the Governor and other elected officials are not factually supported, the Micron Project dwarfs the I-81 Project, much less anything this community has seen. It is just too massive to ignore.

He also referenced "projections from Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon that the community will grow by 200,000 in 20 years, as well as figures from CenterState CEO that 125,000 will come in the next decade."

Below are a few of my thoughts on the Micron aspects of Neri's decision.

Where are those 125,000 - 200,000 people going to live? We have no idea, really. Some may choose an urban lifestyle and live in the city of Syracuse. Some may opt for a quick commute and live in Clay or Cicero. Others may want to live a little further out in the east or west suburbs, while others may go to the far reaches of Onondaga County or neighboring counties. Depending on where they end up, the presence or lack of a viaduct may be meaningless.

There may not be a single 'Micron project' resident impacted by the I-81 project. People who have jobs find a way to get to work on time. I'd suggest this is true of Micron's future employees, just like it's always been true of folks who work downtown, in the suburbs, or in a different county. 

By the way, that happens every day in Central New York; just ask anyone who lives in Oswego, Jefferson, Cayuga, Madison, Cortland, or other counties and comes to work in Syracuse or the suburbs. They've figured out how to make it work, and they've been doing it for decades. Is it so hard to think that newcomers to our area wouldn't be able to figure it out, too?

The same may be said for commercial traffic, too. Micron isn't in CNY now; the company's US locations are in Boise, ID and Manassas, VA; the latter plant is about an hour away from I-81. Should we be required to project how trucks would move between the two plants? Or how suppliers would get from where they are to where Micron will be? At what point do the required projections stop?

What if the Micron project isn't fully realized? The company has been cutting staff and slicing executive pay as demand for their chips slows. Some people weren't convinced we'd see the whole project come to be, even before the cost-cutting measures were announced. But Syracuse will still be here, and the I-81 viaduct will still be past the 'death date,' already six years in the rearview mirror. At what point do we stop projecting and start working?

What comes after the traffic projections are made? Is merely submitting the report sufficient? Or, if the study Neri required determines that there will be an additional volume of cars using the community grid when the viaduct is taken down, what then? Who decides what the grid can support? City engineers? The NYSDOT? Justice Neri or some other elected official? And what criteria apply? Is it too many cycles through the traffic lights? The ratio of electric cars to the total population? How cold a cup of DD coffee gets while you wait?

More importantly, if the decision is that the grid can't support the projected volume, who decides which solution replaces or supplements the grid? Again, is that up to City engineers? The NYSDOT? Neri or some other elected official? 

Or - truly our worst nightmare - do we have to start the entire process all over again?