Poll Watch: A Lack of Seriousness

We're in the middle of an "all-Afghanistan, all the time" news cycle, as you're aware, and that means everyone's tripping over themselves trying to get the most provocative story that can be found. 

As is always the case when we're in this type of frenzy, Twitter is a fun place to hang out for a few minutes here and there. And it was in one of those few-minutes-here-and-there sessions that I stumbled on this survey. The tweet that caught my eye said "tell me again how we're a serious country" - and I simply had to read the linked article, which documented the responses to an IPSOS Snap Poll on Afghanistan.

First, the small print: online, English-language interviews with 1,000 adults from all 50 of the United States were done on August 16th. The survey included 247 Republicans, 443 Democrats, and 310 Independents, and has a 3.5% credibility interval at a 95% confidence level. Additional sampling info is in the link. 

I've seen surveys that illustrated a lack of clarity, but one that led to the questioning of our seriousness as a nation was new to me. Let's see if we can figure out why the poster felt that way.

Overall, 71% of respondents expressed familiarity with our involvement in Afghanistan over the last 20 years and with the US plans to withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan; 68% are familiar with the rapid success of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Independents are less familiar (or more honest?) with 64%, 64%, and 58% respectively, while the Republicans (R) and Democrats (D) were about 75% on each topic.

With more specific questions, answers start to take an interesting, if somewhat confusing, turn. For example:

• Only 50% overall (54% R, 53% D, 45% I) support sending combat troops back in to fight the Taliban - but 68% overall (71% R, 72% D, 62% I) support troops fighting the Taliban to allow time to evacuate Afghans. Which leads one to wonder, if we don't send the troops in, how will they fight the Taliban?

Meanwhile, there's a lot of support for the US to complete our troop withdrawal on schedule, currently meaning by August 31st. Overall, 61% of respondents support this; Republicans (48%) less than either the Independents (60%) or the Dems (72%).

The next questions asked for the level of agreement or disagreement with a series of statements. 

• While 61% want us to complete our exit on time, 51% agree it would have been worth it for the US to leave troops in Afghanistan for another year. Disagreement with this statement is consistent, at 32% overall and similar percentages by political affiliation. 

• We don't want our troops fighting the Taliban, but we also don't seem to mind America sending in additional troops to secure key facilities (airports, embassies, bases) until the US withdrawal is complete. Everyone agrees with this - 75% overall, 81% R, 75%D and 70% I, even though doing so would set us up for fighting the Taliban.

• The war in Afghanistan was going to end badly, no matter when the US left, also brought broad agreement, at 68%. By affiliation, Independents (40% agree, 33% disagree) were the outlier; the Rs (64%/25%) and Ds (78%/14%) were more in the mainstream.

• The rapid collapse of US-trained Afghan forces, and the government, is evidence why the US should get out of the conflict saw 63% of respondents in agreement. Dems agreed more (73%), with Republicans (56%agree/30% disagree) and Independents (58%/20%) less agreeable.

The final question, Have the following generally done a good or bad job in relation to Afghanistan, is the one that most accurately portrays our lack of seriousness as a country, in my opinion. 

TG=Total Good TB= Total Bad	All		R		D		I
	TG	TB	TG	TB	TG	TB	TG	TB
Bush Administration	47%	39%	55%	37%	51%	38%	37%	42%
Obama Administration	51%	38%	31%	63%	77%	15%	42%	39%
Trump Administration	51%	36%	83%	10%	36%	55%	39%	40%
Biden Administration	44%	42%	21%	74%	75%	12%	32%	46%
American news media	42%	44%	28%	65%	65%	22%	32%	38%
US military	77%	14%	85%	11%	78%	15%	69%	15%

It seems the Dubya administration was the last one where abject partisanship wasn't in play. Then we had the black president, the TV host president, and now we have the old guy, who's only been in office for seven months, and the only thing that matters seems to be party affiliation, absent that weird bit of balance from the Dems on Trump's handling of this mess.

• 63% of Republicans say that the administration that got Osama bin Laden did a totally bad job? Seriously? That's why we went there, remember?

• 77% of Democrats say that building troop levels up to 100K, and planning to have all our troops out by the end of 2014, which of course didn't happen, was totally good?

• 83% of Republicans think that talks with the Taliban, including an obscene but discarded plan to bring Taliban leaders to the US, to Camp David, on 9/11, for heaven's sake, or forcing the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners, or setting a troop withdrawal date that's in someone else's administration, is totally good?

• 65% of Democrats think the media has done a totally good job, for 20 years, and 65% of Republicans think the opposite?

"Tell me again how we're a serious country," indeed. It's long past time we got our heads out of our partisan you-know-whats, don't you think?